441
FXUS63 KMPX 250243
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
843 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence increasing for first winter storm of the season
  Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Snow, wind, and
  sub-freezing temperatures will result in difficult travel
  conditions.

- Corridor of heaviest snow has steadied north of I-94, with
  several inches possible across portions of central Minnesota.

- Looking ahead, much colder with additional snow chances later
  this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

For tonight, we will have to keep an eye on visibility trends
across southeast MN into western WI, where we`ve seen a few
observations dip down to 1/2sm visibility or less. How
widespread those sorts of visibilities get in MN/WI is
uncertain, so we have yet to issue any fog headlines, but it may
be necessary later tonight to put the ever popular pre-winter
storm dense fog advisory out for portions of southern MN and
western WI.

As for that winter storm, one big trend noted with all guidance
coming in so far (mostly CAMs to this point) is a southern shift
in the axis of heaviest precipitation, moving very close to
where the ECMWF-AIFS has been for days (it`s held strong on its
southern line). We have more data to come in, but early results
from the 00z guidance would suggest we will need to up our snow
totals across central MN and down toward the Twin Cities metro
as well, with further refinements to the headlines possible as
well. It is looking like a good call by the day shift to keep
that tier of counties across central MN in a Winter Storm
Watch...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Today through Wednesday...A potent storm is expected to
intensify as it moves across the area on Tuesday. As this
storm strengthens, rain will change over to snow, and northerly
winds will increase. The worst conditions will spread from west
to east, Tuesday evening and overnight, with travel impacts
lingering into Wednesday.

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Douglas, Todd,
Morrison, Mille Lacs, and Kanabec where confidence has
increased in heavy snow and strong winds leading to blowing
snow. A Winter Storm Watch remains for Stevens, Pope, Stearns,
and Benton counties, where confidence is not high enough yet to
upgrade to a warning. Expect at least Advisory level impacts for
these counties. Areas south and east of the Watch and Warnings
will still have travel impacts even though snow amounts won`t be
as high. A broad Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to
cover potential for a few inches of snowfall and blowing snow
concerns. Additionally, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
portions of southwest and south-central Minnesota where less
snowfall is expected, but strong winds will still develop.
Isolated impacts from blowing snow will be possible within the
Wind Advisory.

The system that will bring a significant change in the weather
is currently located over the Idaho Panhandle, on the northern
edge of a strong upper level jet. There is a large strip of
positive vorticity extending upstream along the coast of British
Columbia, and over the next 24 hours, this strip of positive
vorticity is going to congeal into a compact upper level
shortwave trough. The positive vorticity advection and height
falls ahead of this trough will lead to significant upper level
forcing for ascent, as evident by the surface low dropping from
1007mb this evening, into the upper 990s by Tuesday evening. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, a TROWAL will develop
northwest of this surface low, with heavy snowfall expected.
Meanwhile, northerly winds will increase with gusts of 40 to 45
mph. The combination of falling snow and strong win will lead to
low visibility. Lastly, temperatures will start out warm, which
should allow for some melting snow early, but cold air
advection and sub-freezing temperatures should lead to
accumulating snow fairly quickly after it changes over from rain
to snow. Overnight temperatures will continue to fall, and by
Wednesday morning areas in western Minnesota will be near 20
degrees, with mid- 20s elsewhere. The concern is that any
untreated surfaces will freeze, leading to slippery roads and
slow winter travel conditions lasting through Wednesday morning,
well after the snow has ended. Fortunately highs on Wednesday
will be in the mid to upper 20s, so the main roads should
recover quickly.


Thursday through the Weekend... Thursday could still be breezy
to start the day, with gusts up to 25 mph, though the pressure
gradient will loosen as the surface low continues into eastern
Canada. Persistent northwest winds will keep us cold for several
days. Highs will remain in the low to mid 20s, with lows in the
teens each morning. Friday morning looks to be the coldest with
the NBM suggesting single digits for much of western and into
central Minnesota. Feels like temperatures will be about 5 to 10
degrees below air temperatures when winds pick up during the
afternoon, especially on Thursday while winds are still breezy.

Several long range models show that the region remains primed
for additional activity through the weekend and into the early
part of next week. The upper level pattern exhibits a positive
tilted trough extending from central Canada all the way down
towards southern California. Several lows could form off of the
Rockies and track through the central US. There is uncertainty
in where those systems would track, though there is increasing
signal for snow across portions of southern Minnesota Friday
into Saturday (30-50% PoPs). The latest NBM has at least 15-35
percent PoPs starting Friday evening and lasting all the way
through Monday, which seems reasonable until we can hone in with
higher confidence when and where any systems develop.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Main concern tonight is trying to forecast just how soupy
conditions will get. We`re starting out with MVFR/IFR cigs from
south central to east central MN and western WI and this will
lower through the night, with visibility eventually joining the
game as well, though there`s tons of spread in the short term
models with just how bad it gets tonight. This forecast tried to
find the middle of the road as much as possible, though there`s
potential for visibility in particular to be much worse than
what we have right now for late tonight through Tuesday morning.
For precipitation, we`ll see some light rain through the night
across southeast MN and western WI, with EAU having the best
chance of seeing rain this evening. We`ll see a lull in precip
through much of the morning on Tuesday, but precip will be
rapidly spreading east across central MN through the afternoon.
Precip will start as rain, before transitioning to snow, we see
about a 2 hour spread for when this transition happens between
the NAM on the fast end and HRRR on the slower end. Another
concern for the end of the period will be wind gust speeds. Top
of the channel mixing winds from both the RAP and GFS are
topping 50 kts at our MN terminals, so a marked increase in
winds speeds may be needed Tuesday evening.

KMSP...Forecasting aviation weather conditions gets no easier
this period. MSP is starting out the period on the edge of the
stratus deck across southeast MN. Given the weak flow in place,
we`re expecting the stratus to remain in place, since there`s
nothing to move it, with conditions lowering through the night.
Weather looks mostly dry until showers show up Tuesday
afternoon. A transition from rain to snow is expected between
00z and 02z, with about 4-6 hours of light to moderate snow
expected once the transition happens. As mentioned above, mixed
winds on BUFKIT profiles are a bit concerning Tuesday night, so
did boost winds above LAV guidance for the end of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR cigs. -SHSN early. Wind NW 15-25G30-35kts.
THU...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind NW to NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch Tuesday morning for Douglas-Todd.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for Douglas-Todd.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday
     for Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for Pope-Stevens.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for Benton-Stearns.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST
     Wednesday for Anoka-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-Isanti-
     McLeod-Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Washington-Wright.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-
     Renville-Swift.
     Wind Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Blue
     Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-
     Redwood-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST
     Wednesday for Barron-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...BED/JRB
AVIATION...MPG