898
FXUS63 KMPX 020830
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
330 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing complex of storms progresses S/SE from northwest
  Minnesota through the morning. No severe weather expected.

- A few severe storms (risk level 1 of 5) possible this
  afternoon/evening with the arrival of a strong cold front.

- Temperatures cool down significantly midweek into the weekend,
  before rebounding next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

GOES IR satellite imagery this morning shows a complex of storms
traveling almost due south from northwest Minnesota. Hi-res
models have been, and will likely continue to struggle with this
850mb WAA influenced convection. Spoiler, this is foreshadowing
for a somewhat low confidence forecast later today. We expect
the ongoing convection to continue in strength as it rides down
the instability gradient, which may have it take a bit more of a
southeastward path once it reaches the I-94 corridor. By then
it may start to wane in strength, but 30 to 40% PoPs look
reasonable for areas as far southeast as the Twin Cities metro
and western Wisconsin later this morning. There`s just limited
instability out there, so it may be more showery.

As that activity moves out, a plume of moisture will see surface
dew points rise into the low to mid 60s, allowing ~1000 to
2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to build ahead of an approaching cold front.
We would expect scattered clusters of storms to initiate as low
level convergence maximizes along the front, eventually forming
into broken line segments. There have been some dramatic shifts
in the hi-res guidance as they try to resolve this morning`s
convection. Both the 00z RRFS and 06z HRRR struggle to initiate
much of anything across Minnesota by the time the front reaches
a line from Mankato to the Twin Cities. While these solutions
do not seem as likely, they do show the complexity and lower end
confidence with this particular setup. Forecast soundings show
adequate 0-6km shear (~25 kts) and mid level lapse rates (6-7
C/km) to produce isolated severe wind gusts and hail with any of
the stronger cells. This remains highlighted in the SPC
Marginal risk (1 of 5), though the main threat area may need to
be adjusted after the morning convection shows its cards. Timing
for the front looks to be around 5-7PM for the St Cloud area
and 8-11PM for south-central MN up through the Twin Cities metro
and much of western Wisconsin.

The action will continue into Wednesday, with gusty NW winds on
the order of 20-30 mph, cooler temperatures into the 50s and 60s,
and scattered CAA showers and storms during the afternoon.
Another quick shortwave behind this front will actually shift
us back into a warm sector again Thursday with a slight recovery
in surface temps. More showers and storms will be possible
ahead of and along this front. Friday will see temps knock right
back down, with NW winds gusting to 20-30 mph again. Long range
models continue to show the Canadian high lingering through the
weekend, with an upper ridge finally starting to nudge the
trough eastwards. We should begin to recover temps starting next
week, with no large signal for precipitation under northwest
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

There will are two shra/tsra chances we`re watching this period.
The first is with the cluster of storms over north-central MN
at the start of this period. These storms are moving due south,
but should get nudged east a bit as the elevated instability
it`s riding on nudges east through the night. We expect showers
and storms this morning to move across central into eastern MN
and maybe far western WI and this is the first of two prob30s
for TS we have in the TAFs. The second TS threat comes along the
cold front in the late afternoon, starting in central MN,
likely up through the Brainerd area between 20z and 22z, then
diving southeast through the rest of the evening across the MPX
area. Still enough spread with when/where this afternoon/evening
round gets going to keep that TS potential in prob30s. For fog
tonight, it`s really only by the river in EAU where we have
concerns about fog thanks to cloud cover. Outside of precip,
the only chance for sub-VFR comes behind the cold front Tuesday
night depending on how low any post frontal statocu comes in.

KMSP...Did add a mention for precip in the morning as storms up
by Bemidji now should hold together in some variety to reach the
metro in the morning. Based on how the storms are traveling now,
they could come in a bit earlier than we have, but we have the
9z amd to update timing trends if need be. Left timing for
evening TS chance pretty much unchanged as this has good
agreement with timing for TS from the HREF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR/SHRA likely AM chc PM. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc MVFR/SHRA PM. Wind W 10-20 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG