103
FXUS63 KMPX 301755
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1155 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Remnant light snow ends from west to east this morning.

- Weak clipper system provides a potential for snow showers
  Wednesday.

- Colder than normal conditions continue through the first week
  of December, with the first widespread sub-zero morning of
  the season looking likely Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Latest surface analysis this morning shows low pressure entering
the Chicagoland region of Illinois and continuing northeast.
The western edge of that system (which brought us this
snowfall), is seen well on nighttime microphysics. Stratus
coupled with light snow is still working on clearing out of the
eastern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Snow should
continue to taper off from west to east through this morning and
all should be snow-free around noon if not sooner. Storm total
snowfall amounts as of 12 AM for our climate sites were: NWS
Twin Cities were 6.5 inches, MSP Int`l Airport at 3.9 inches,
and EAU 4.0 inches. More measurements across the area should
begin to filter in by mid- morning. As always, feel free to
provide your snow total measurement via social media or emailing
our office as its greatly appreciated!

Now that this low has passed, the "fun" part of this winter
storm arrives, i.e. cold temperatures. Colder air is being
channeled between the aforementioned low to our SE and building
high pressure to the west. Across much of MN, breezy NNW`ly
gusts are being reported to range between 20-25mph. These winds
could create a few areas of blowing snow over the next couple of
hours before decreasing this morning. Overcast skies should
transition to partial sunshine by this afternoon. Forecast highs
today will depend on your location. Areas across western MN and
closer to the region of high pressure will see highs in the
teens. Areas east of the St. Croix River Valley will reach reach
the low 20s. Lows area wide tonight will be near 0 degrees.

Surface high pressure continues moving SE`ward into Iowa and
reaching its peak strength ~1036mb Monday. Forecast high
temperature distribution appears uniform near the 20 degree
mark. Skies for most folks will be mostly cloudy although some
sun might try and break through the clouds across southwestern
MN. Lows Monday night will range in the single digits. By
Tuesday, temperatures warm up slightly into lower 20s.

By Wednesday, upper-level troughing sinks southward over the
Hudson Bay below in the mid-levels, a clipper system develops
over Saskatchewan and heads ESE across the Int`l border.
Forecast guidance currently favors a chance of snow showers
during the daytime hours. As of now, snowfall accumulations look
to be only minor featuring a trace up to a half-inch possible.
Strongest chances for any snow to fall are up near Lake Superior
which is outlined well by the latest NBM. Temperatures once
again will be kicked down post-FROPA. Highs will return to the
teens and lows nearing the double digits below zero for early
Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR conditions with low clouds and a few light snow showers
this afternoon. These low clouds should clear out from northwest
to southeast later today, with VFR conditions expected into the
evening and overnight hours.

On Monday, winds will become southeast, and mid level clouds
will increase, along with a chance for some light snow showers
late morning and early afternoon at KRWF, KMKT, and KMSP. These
snow showers could also impact KRWF and KEAU during the
afternoon, but that is beyond the time frame of this TAF
issuance.

KMSP...
MVFR conditions this afternoon with a few light snow showers /
flurries, but no accumulation or runway impacts are expected.
Low clouds should clear out later today, perhaps as early as the
evening rush. Winds will be northwest, but take on a southeast
direction overnight.

Did add a Prob30 for snow showers Monday afternoon. For now, not
expecting more than a dusting. The higher end scenario is
around a half inch.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR clouds with IFR/-SN possible late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR with -SN possible early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR and cold. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JRB