307
FXUS63 KMPX 260743
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
243 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers will increase in coverage from west to east
  through the morning and into the afternoon.

- Rainfall amounts of 0.50-0.70" are expected across much of
  western & central Minnesota. Generally less than 0.10-0.30"
  across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- A more widespread round of rain is likely with a frontal
  passage on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The next upper level system and associated trough axis will race
across Canada and Northern Plains through the short term. In
response to said upper level system, low level flow will increase
out of the south, advecting moisture across the region.
Ensemble guidance shows precipitable water values 150-200
percent of normal overlaying the region through the day with DP
temps in the mid to upper 50s to around 60 degrees across
western MN. As a result, rain chances increase this morning with
scattered to widespread showers. High res model guidance
depicts this swath of showers moving SW to NE through the
morning, bringing it into the metro by 10am(SW metro) to
12pm(NE metro) timeframe. Shower activity will be more
widespread across western MN, with lesser probabilities and
coverage across eastern MN and western WI. Expected rainfall
amounts will range from 0.30-0.70 inches across western MN and
less than 0.30 inches across eastern MN and western WI. Forecast
soundings show a sliver of elevated CAPE across western MN,
can`t rule out a rumble of thunder embedded within the shower
activity. High temperatures on Saturday will trend cooler with
highs in the low to middle 60s, middle to upper 60s across
western/central WI.

On Sunday, the aforementioned upper level system and associated
moisture will quickly translate east. Upper level ridge axis
will settle in it`s wake across the region with dry conditions
expected throughout the day, a remnant isolated shower or two
possible during the morning hours. High temperatures rebound
back up into the upper 60s. Surface high pressure will settle in
over the Great Lakes region. Being on the western periphery,
southerly flow will remain in place, with DP temps remaining
around 60 degrees.

.NEXT WEEK...

On Monday, south/southwesterly flow will remain locked in across the
region ahead of the next upper level shortwave trough. High
temperatures will warm a few degrees from Sunday, around 70 degrees
areawide. With anomalous moisture in place, the next upper level
shortwave and associated surface front will promote scattered to
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday. As of
now, there`s still a degree of uncertainty regarding how this
system evolves. That said, it`s to difficult, with not the best
forecaster confidence to determine exact rainfall totals. But
the one trend that is remaining fairly consistent is lesser rain
totals as most of the upper level forcing and dynamics hone in
across far northern MN and south into the IA/MO/NE/IL region.
Looking at 00z deterministic models and their respected ensemble
suites, guidance is painting greater than 60 percent
chance(medium to high confidence) of 24 hour rainfall totals of
greater than 0.10 inches areawide. Looking at the probability of
24 hour totals greater than 0.50 inches, guidance is painting
at 10-40 percent chance(low to medium confidence).

The next chance for rain will be on Thursday. An upper level trough
will move across the Desert Southwest before ejecting northeastward
across the Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. There still remains
uncertainty regarding this system, and how far north the associated
deep and anomalous moisture advects. That said, 15-30 percent PoPs
remain in the forecast grids, highlighting Thursday rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Only some minor tweaks to timing and categories compared to the
00z TAF as we expect -SHRA to increase in coverage from west to
east throughout the period, with chances diminishing for
RNH/EAU. Winds will favor 130-160 at around 10kts with
occasional gusts up to 20kts. -SHRA/-RA will result in mainly
IFR with some periods of LIFR possible especially for
AXN/RWF/MKT/STC. Even after -SHRA ends, IFR/MVFR will continue
until the end of the period as BR will continue to reduce
visibility and CIGS won`t begin to lift until after the period
ends.

KMSP...Compared to sites farther west, we expect less in the way
of -SHRA intensity and therefore less category degradation at
MSP. Maintained an MVFR/IFR TAF as there is high confidence in
impacts today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA early, becoming VFR late. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/SHRA. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...TDH