576
FXUS63 KMPX 182357
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
657 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This Evening, the flooding thread has trended down, but
  thunderstorms with heavy rain are still possible between 5pm
  and 8pm for a few counties along I-90.

- Looking ahead, seasonable temperatures with mainly dry
  conditions expected for the Sunday through next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Early afternoon satellite and radar
imagery showed widespread clouds and rain across the region.
However there was no lightning as instability remained to the
south. The lack of lightning and deep convection meant rainfall
rates were only about 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour. This kept the
flood threat low across most of the region.

The lone exception was down along I-90, where there is still a
chance for some convection and heavier rainfall rates to develop
this evening. The flood threat has trended down, but did
continue with the Flood Watch since there is a potential for
storms.

Overnight, the steady rain will gradually end, but the low
clouds will continue into Saturday. Forecast soundings showed
low level saturation and some omega, so did increase the chance
for precipitation Saturday morning, and went with drizzle
instead of rain. Winds will be out of the northeast at 10 to 15
mph, and temperatures will be in the low 60s making it feel like
fall.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Looking ahead, mostly dry conditions are
expected for next week. A boundary will lay out to the south
across Iowa, and be the focus for showers and storms. Meanwhile
upper level ridging will lead to a surface high pressure
building across the Great Lakes. This will keep temperatures on
the cooler side to start the week. However, southerly winds
start to return by the end of next week, which will bring in
slightly warmer air, and small chances for rain across the west.
Overall expect dry weather this coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Sites will fluctuate between MVFR/IFR cigs over the next couple of
hours prior to widespread IFR cigs tonight through much of
tomorrow. Prevailing RA continues to move east leaving
scattered light rain showers and drizzle in its wake.
Continuing to monitor the potential for -TSRA over the next few
hours near MKT but trends appear to focus well south of the MKT
field. Breezy easterly wind gusts 18-21kts will continue to
weaken this evening however sustaining speeds between 8-10kts
overnight. Winds will then shift NE`ly by mid-morning.

KMSP...Have a tempo group for fluctuating cigs between MVFR/IFR for
the next couple of hours before prevailing IFR through much of the
period. Main period of precip is now over however, remnant drizzle
will linger until later in the morning (~16z). East winds tonight
shift NE`ly with crosswind gusts near 20kts after 16z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NE 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10G15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Freeborn.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Dunleavy