224
FXUS63 KMPX 081942
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
242 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers & a few thunderstorms tomorrow evening
  across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- A more active pattern likely leads to wetter weather this
  weekend into next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

About as good as it gets for October weather this afternoon with
not a cloud in the sky & light southerly winds warming
temperatures into the 60s this afternoon. A warmer night is
expected as southerly flow continues on the back side of
departing high pressure; frost is still possible across low-
lying areas of western Wisconsin but otherwise most of the area
will see lows in the 40s.

A cold front passes through the region tomorrow, ahead of
another region of high pressure advancing out of the Canadian
prairies. Temperatures have a good chance of overachieving
model guidance tomorrow afternoon, as southerly flow increases
ahead of the front & leads to a few hours of enhanced warming
immediately ahead of the frontal passage. As a result,
increased highs into the mid 70s across western Minnesota where
this warming will be most pronounced, & the upper 60s to low 70s
farther east into Wisconsin. The frontal passage will initially
be dry across western Minnesota, but scattered showers are
expected to develop closer to the evening hours as better
forcing arrives from the upper level low. These showers will
mainly be limited to eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, with
the best chances for a few rumbles of thunder the deeper one
goes into Wisconsin. Expect rainfall amounts up to 0.25"
wherever showers occur.

More pleasant & seasonable fall October weather is expected
Friday into saturday as Canadian high pressure moves through
the region, but rain chances increase Sunday & into next week
as guidances shows the jetstream becoming more amplified with
increasing southwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest. Most
guidance is in agreement with a trough deepening over the
Dakotas Sunday into Monday, which leads to ensemble guidance
showing high (>80%) chances for most of Minnesota & Wisconsin
seeing at least a tenth of an inch of rain Sunday. AN even
stronger signal is present across the western half of
Minnesota, where medium (50-70%) chances for at least half an
inch of rain currently exist. The pattern remains active through
most of next week, with guidance highlighting another likely
system & widespread rain for the Upper Midwest midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions to prevail through the 18z TAF period. Occasional
southeasterly gusts between 15-20kts are possible across
western MN this afternoon. Southeast winds decrease to 5-10kts
overnight, before increasing around 14/15z Thursday. Strongest
gusts (25+ kts) are forecast to begin towards the end of the
period and persist through tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 5-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G20kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Strus