525
FXUS63 KMPX 270812
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
312 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and areas of drizzle continue through the morning.

- More rain chances over the next week with the best chance
  coming on Tuesday.

- Temperatures will be at or slightly above average through
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A cool and damp start to your Sunday. Remnant moisture associated
with the upper level system moving east will continue to promote
scattered rain showers and areas of drizzle through the morning
hours. Upper level ridge axis will quickly settle in it`s wake
across the region this afternoon with mostly dry conditions expected
the remainder of the day. Broken to overcast skies will slowly break
and diminish, becoming scattered to broken clouds during the
afternoon and evening. Filtered sunshine during the mid to late
afternoon and evening hours will allow temperatures to rebound back
into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

Heading into Monday, surface high pressure will settle in over the
Great Lakes region. Being on the western periphery, southerly flow
will remain in place, with DP temps around 60 degrees. A slug of
deep layer moisture will begin to nose in from the southwest,
bringing anomalous moisture across the forecast area. Clouds through
the Monday period will be broken to overcast with high temperatures
around 70 degrees.

By Tuesday, the next shortwave trough and the associated frontal
boundary will move west to east across the region, tapping into the
anomalous moisture that`s in place. This will promote scattered to
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms through the day on
Tuesday. We`re starting to enter the window where there`s better
agreement with guidance. 00z deterministic models and their
respected ensemble suites are painting greater than 60 percent
chance(medium to high confidence) of 24 hour rainfall totals of
greater than 0.10 inches areawide. Looking at the probability of 24
hour totals greater than 0.50 inches, guidance is painting at 10-40
percent chance(low to medium confidence). The highest QPF totals
look to focus across southern MN.

.REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...

Thereafter, the upper level flow regime will remain progressive with
upper level jet across southern Canada and far northern CONUS.
Guidance is starting to hint at upper level ridge developing across
western CONUS, which would promote more zonal to northwesterly flow
aloft across the region. NBM guidance is starting lock in on this
solution with temperatures cooling slightly below average by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Satellite shows the story this morning with overcast low clouds
everywhere as IR shows little coloration and nighttime
microphysics RGB shows the cyan hues indicative of a low level
stratus deck. Observations are a mix of LIFR in the west for
AXN/RWF, IFR in STC, and low MVFR for the remainder with the
expectation being most sites see at least IFR through 14-16z at
which point we will slowly begin to scatter out. High pressure
sliding in from the west will be slow to arrive such that most
locations will see IFR/low MVFR by sunrise, with LIFR expected
in RWF/AXN. Winds become light and variable as high pressure
approaches, allowing for any low level BR to persist longer than
usual as the stratus deck will also prevent us from mixing it
out. End of period we should finally see enough scattering for
most sites to return to MVFR/VFR.

KMSP...MVFR to start with a brief drop to IFR expected after 12z
with lack of wind and mixing to either advect or dissipate the
low level cloud cover. Weak subsidence via incoming high
pressure will slowly scatter things out after 17z, with VFR late
in the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S to SE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...TDH