811
FXUS63 KMPX 071744
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southeasterly winds gust to around 25 to 35 mph today.

- A west-to-east moving cold front will trigger a couple rounds
  of storms today and tonight. Severe wind and hail risk is
  Marginal, and localized rainfall amounts may exceed 2 inches.

- Slightly cooler temperatures are on the horizon with rain
  chances returning late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Surface cyclogenesis is expected off the lee of the Rockies
today as a positively tilted shortwave slides northeast across
the northern Plains. For us, that means winds increase out of
the southeast and PWATs settle in around 1.5 to 2 inches.
Overall, it will be an alright day with highs near 80 and breezy
winds, but this does set the stage for storm chances late this
evening and overnight as a trailing cold front sweeps through.

There is high confidence that the main front does not move
through until early Tuesday morning, however there is solid
agreement across guidance that there will be some flavor of pre-
frontal activity today. One solution, the HRRR, has been
suggesting scattered showers develop this morning across
southern MN. This is reasonable given the WAA regime that will
set up and we are already seeing activity in northwestern IA as
of 3AM. We do not expect any showers to bubble in the same way
they did yesterday morning though, with forecast soundings
showing a wedge of dry air above 500mb. Regardless of any
showers this morning, there is also agreement on storms
developing during the afternoon or early evening timeframe
across the Dakotas and moving east through central MN during the
evening. The overall coverage of these evening storms vary
considerably from model to model, and even run to run of each
model. Our highest PoPs, and therefore highest confidence,
stretches from Alexandria east towards the Mille Lacs and
Kanabec county area. The nature of those pre-frontal storms will
likely play a role in how widespread and intense storms are
overnight along the main boundary. With storms likely being very
clustered and primarily elevated, a marginal risk for severe
wind and hail remains in place. Perhaps the bigger concern is
for heavy rain and localized flash flooding. With the chance for
2 or even 3 periods of rain today, some areas could see amounts
on the high end of QPF. As with any convective scenario, it
really depends on where those storms travel over and if they
persist for several hours in a given area. On the opposite end,
not all locations may see rain as well, with that low
confidence in overall coverage area playing a role.

Any lingering showers and cloud cover will begin to clear out by
midday Tuesday, though there may be some redevelopment during
the afternoon along the boundary as it stretches across
southeast MN and west-central WI. Outside of this, the forecast
quiets down for a nice Wednesday and Thursday. Northwest winds
do increase on Wednesday, with gusts up to around 25 to 30 mph,
which will advect in that drier and cooler airmass.

Long range guidance continues to trend towards a deep trough
developing next weekend, which may bring a series of cold
fronts Friday through Sunday. The latest NBM PoPs reflect this
idea, with 10 to 30 percent chances each day. Along with any
rain chance will likely come a strong push of cooler weather
again, potentially dropping our highs next week to below
average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

New 18z TAF package features quite a few adjustments owing to
hi-res model and observational trends. First item of concern is
the persistence of breezy southerly winds through the period,
with peak gusts approaching 30kts for many of the MN terminals.
The other part of the evolving forecast is the arrival of
rain/possible thunderstorm chances later this evening and
overnight. Hi-res models have come into agreement on the track
of an initial batch of warm advective showers that are forecast
to move from western MN into central MN around sunset. Forecast
soundings highlight dry air within the column and little elevated
instability with eastern extent, which should keep this initial
batch of showers on the lighter side for most locations. Things
change tonight as the low-level jet intensifies and supports
the development of a broad region of showers and possible
thunderstorms. CAM lightning density plots suggest this
convection develops near or just after midnight along a line
from AXN to RWF, spreading east with time. New TAF package
leans on latest hi-res blend to tie up precipitation timing.
Winds turn WSW Tuesday morning following the departure of early
day rain & storms. The true surface cold front will pass
Tuesday afternoon, which will result in a wind a WNW wind shift.
It`s possible a few showers or an isolated storm may develop
ahead of the frontal passage and another precipitation mention
may be added in forthcoming TAFs.

KMSP...Breezy southeasterly flow persists, with peak gusts
between 25-30kts late afternoon/early evening. Could have a few
showers around the TC Metro this evening, but better chances for
rain (and potentially thunderstorms) arrive overnight, which is
reflected by a PROB30 from 7-10z. Winds turn SSW after daybreak.
While most of the day will be dry, a few showers are possible
ahead of Tuesday afternoon`s cold frontal passage & the addition
of a PROB30 or TEMPO for daytime showers may be warranted.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Strus