869
FXUS63 KMPX 290504
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1104 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A long duration snow event begins tonight & continues through
  early Sunday morning. Several inches of snowfall accumulation
  are expected, with the heaviest amounts of 6-10" across
  southern Minnesota.

- Well-below normal temperatures arrive after the snow on SUnday
  and persist through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Forecast remains on track for a long duration snow event
beginning tonight across western Minnesota & continuing into
the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday. Surface observations
already show a few snow reports over eastern South Dakota &
northwest Iowa, although it will still take a few more hours for
snow to overcome the dry air & begin accumulating over
southwest Minnesota. Snow will spread across southwest &
southern Minnesota this evening, followed by a likely lull in
the snow for a few hours during the early morning hours. The
snow then spreads farther north & east into central Minnesota &
western Wisconsin through Saturday morning as the warm-air
advection & isentropic ascent become more pronounced to the
north of the surface low tracking through the mid-Mississippi
valley. The snow will lighten through the evening and end from
west to east overnight saturday into Sunday as the warp-around
region of the low moves off to the east.

Because the surface low is tracking so far south of our area,
this event is shaping up as one of our "classic" winter storms,
rather as a long-duraton snow event where 12-24 hours of light
to moderate snow could still add up to several inches. The
heaviest amounts of 6-10" are expected across southern
Minnesota, where the chances of seeing 12+ hours of snowfall
are most likely. Farther north into the Twin Cities metro &
western Wisconsin, we may not see much in the way of snowfall
accumulation until Saturday morning, which will limit amounts to
2-5" (higher farther south). Even farther north into central
Minnesota, only a few hours of light snow will keep
accumulations under an inch or two. While the snow is not
expected to be heavy at any particular time, disruptions to
travel are expected Saturday given the snowfall accumulation &
holiday weekend. If possible, plan on postponing trips to Sunday
after the snow has ended & roads will be clear.

After the snow ends, broad canadian high pressure moves into
the region along with well-below normal temperatures. Lows will
depend on the snowpack in place, but will likely be around zero
with daytime highs only in the teens to low 20s. The cold
pattern remains in place through the week with an even colder
surge of Arctic air expected later in the week. Precipitation
chances look low, with some flurries or light snow possible
with the intrusions of cold air later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The biggest changes to this TAF period were: 1. Delay the onset
of snow for eastern MN and WI terminals by a couple of hours. 2.
Lower cigs, especially over southern MN and EAU, a few hundred
feet during Saturday afternoon and evening such that IFR cigs
are more likely. Still expecting heaviest snowfall rates to
start over the southern half of MN by mid to late Saturday
morning through the afternoon (with WI terminals being delayed
2-3 hours). Visibilities should drop to 1/2 mile at their
lowest for RWF and MKT while other terminals should bounce
between 3/4 and 1 1/2 mile. Snow should gradually end over
western MN Saturday evening. Easterly winds will slowly turn
counter-clockwise to northerly by Saturday evening with speeds
increasing to 10-15 knots. Gusts will reach 20-25 knots,
particularly over southern MN during the afternoon and evening
hours.

KMSP...Delayed onset of prevailing snow until 10Z Saturday.
Expecting the worst conditions mid-Saturday afternoon where
visibilities could drop under 1 mile while cigs fall to near 800
feet. Cigs and visibilities should slowly improve Saturday
evening with VFR conditions likely late Saturday night as snow
ends and clouds lift. Northeasterly winds will gust to near 20
knots throughout Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Renville-Sibley-Swift-Yellow
     Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-
     Scott-Washington-Wright.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet-
     Redwood-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for Goodhue-Le
     Sueur-Rice.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...CTG