657
FXUS63 KMPX 301717
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions expected through Labor Day, with a lower
  end chance for isolated afternoon storms in western MN Monday.

- Best chance for organized precipitation comes with a cold
  front Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Mild, near-normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday,
  with highs 10 to 20 degrees below normal for Wednesday
  through Friday behind the cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Surface analysis this morning shows broad high pressure in place
from the Great Lakes, extending west across the northern Plains.
Rainfall that moved across western WI Friday morning left behind a
stratus deck over southeast MN and western WI that we`ve seen
spreading back northwest across eastern MN and western WI overnight.
This has left an interesting battle in place this morning as to
whether the atmosphere will play the stratus or the dense fog card.
So far, it has been the stratus play, though this stratus deck will
likely continue to slowly lower through the night, with at least
some of this becoming dense fog by sunrise. No matter if this ends
up as fog or stays as stratus, we will be spending much of the
morning getting rid of this cloud cover before mostly sunny skies
return for the afternoon. As for the afternoon and precip chances,
today looks to be dry. Friday, we saw a little over 1000 j/kg of
mlCAPE that supported the diurnal activity we saw develop. Today,
the HREF shows about 750 j/kg of mlCAPE developing out in the upper
MN Valley. The weaker instability means weaker updrafts that will
likely struggle with dry air entrainment to reach sustained deep
moist convection, so today looks to be dry, with diurnal activity
expected to develop from central South Dakota to northwest Iowa.

For the rest of the holiday weekend, it will be more of the same.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to push the deeper
moisture to our west, with dry conditions again for Sunday. Only
change for Monday is that as the high finally starts to move east,
we`ll see deeper moisture creep in western MN, with better chances
for diurnal shower chances returning to western MN to end the
holiday weekend.

Moving ahead to Tuesday, models continue to show a strong cold front
dropping southeast across the area. The biggest change we`ve seen in
the last 24 hour is this front is coming in a bit faster, with it
looking to cross the MPX area Tuesday afternoon and evening. As the
front moves through, it will likely have a line of showers
associated with it. A lack of instability looks to limit the severe
potential with this front, while the speed with which it moves
through should hold any rainfall amounts to under a half inch.
Behind the front, a very cold airmass sets in as a northerly jet
streak moves overhead. h85 temps bottom out on Thursday around 0c.
Due to the bias correction in the NBM, its forecast highs (and by
extension ours) are likely running about 5 to 10 degree too warm for
Wednesday through Friday. In fact, the EPS would support highs
remaining in the 50s areawide on Thursday, or around 20 degrees
below normal. To go with the cooler temperatures, dewpoints will
likely fall into the upper 30s, so we`ll see some chilly mornings in
there as well, with some lows in the 30s not out of the question for
central MN into northwest WI if we can get a good radiational
cooling night. The good news is by next weekend, we quickly start to
come out of this cold snap, with highs quickly making a run back
toward normal levels. As we get into the 2nd week of September, the
weather pattern is looking more like what we saw this summer with
high pressure over the Atlantic extending west into the eastern
CONUS, with a warmer and higher moisture airmass likely making a
return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

IFR ceilings have mostly scattered out across eastern Minnesota
& western Wisconsin but another hour or two of low ceilings is
expected across western & south-central Minnesota, mainly
impacting RWF & MKT. VFR conditions are expected once the
clouds clear out into tonight with only FEW/SCT cumulus
developing this afternoon. Patchy mist looks likely overnight
given the mostly clear skies, but confidence in visibility
restrictions is too low to mention at this point outside of
RNH/EAU. EAU has the highest potential for fog early tomorrow
morning as well, when visibility could drop below 1SM.

KMSP...VFR through tonight. Areas of mist and fog could
develop in the river valleys early tomorrow morning but is not
expected to reduce visibility at the terminal.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind S 5kts.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA/-TSRA likely. Wind SW 5 kt becoming W
10-20 kts during the afternoon.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...ETA