915
FXUS63 KMPX 152308
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
608 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widely numerous showers and storms this afternoon
  and evening. Lightning and brief heavy rain are the main
  impacts.

- Temperatures continue to hover right around the seasonal
  average for the middle of August.

- Next round of showers and storms will come Monday into Tuesday
  with another cold front passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

There is an increasing chance for scattered storms this evening
as a weak cold front travels eastward out of the Dakotas.
Latest satellite imagery shows a somewhat slowly deteriorating
low level cloud deck across western MN while high-level anvil
clouds overspread from the southwest. In the areas that have
seen enough clearing, increasing dewpoints and warming
temperatures have built in a pool of moderately unstable air.
This destabilization combined with the weak forcing from the
front are expected to support the development of widely
scattered storms this evening. Most CAMs have aligned on this
solution, with some more bullish than others. Confidence is low
that everyone will see storms tonight, but the trend supports at
least a broader coverage. Given the limited heating across
eastern MN, we expect any storms that develop out west to wane
the further east they get. Nothing severe is expected given the
weak midlevel lapse rates and wind shear, though some strong
gusts could be possible as the storms first develop across
western MN.

As the front exits overnight, winds increase out of the
northwest and bring in much drier air. While it may be breezy
at times with gusts up to 20 mph, Sunday will be a very nice day
with plenty of sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s.

Active weather returns Monday into Tuesday as an upper level
shortwave deepens over the Hudson Bay. For the most part, Monday
will remain nice with mostly clear skies. Increasing southwest
winds will begin to advect moisture in though, resulting a
slightly more humid day and a chance for late afternoon storms.
Our latest PoPs have increased in the latest forecast package
to match this trend. The better forcing for storm development
comes late Monday into Tuesday as a southwestward-advancing
cold front collides with the moderately unstable air. Depending
on the timing of the front, the better chance for any severe
weather potential may end up favoring Iowa rather than across
our region. You can see this trend with the latest QPF as well,
putting the bullseye more into northern Iowa rather than
southern MN as it looked 24 hours ago.

Behind this front, temperatures cool off slightly on Wednesday,
then gradually recover through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The main features of this period will be driven by a frontal
passage. This passage will drive our wind shift and storm chances this
evening. Ahead of this front winds are from the south and behind
the front they shift to the northwest. Along the boundary there
have been some showers, but little to no lightning. There is
enough instability in the environment that sound TSRA is
possible for MKT, but is unlikely at other terminals. Behind the
front will also see some lower ceilings in the morning. MVFR
likely with some areas of IFR possible.

KMSP...Any thunderstorm chances looks to remain to the south of
the terminal area. Based on radar trends there might not even
be rain in the terminal area this evening. There could be a
period of MVFR in the morning, this should lift by the late
morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC