678
FXUS63 KMPX 171121
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
621 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday night.
  Best chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is this
  evening, focused across western Minnesota.

- Quiet weather returns for the second half of the week with
  near-normal temperatures and only low rain chances Thursday
  into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages. A somewhat progressive weather pattern with chances of
showers and storms across the area this evening/tonight, with
another shot of showers/storms Tuesday evening. Temperatures will
hover right around the seasonal average through the period.

.TODAY AND TUESDAY...

Your Monday starts off very similar to how Sunday ended, cooler and
drier. Quite pleasant for mid August standards. Throughout the day,
low level southwest flow will increase, which will also promote
moisture advection ahead of an advancing frontal boundary. This
frontal boundary is associated with a quick moving upper level
system that will dive southeast out of the Canadian Prairies and
towards the Great Lakes Region. Scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop during the late afternoon timeframe over the
eastern Dakotas and western MN before progressing east-southeastward
across MN during the evening hours. A strong storm or two will be
possible as this activity progresses east-southeastward as 1000-1500
J/kg of SBCAPE is present, along with more than sufficient shear. By
Tuesday morning, high res model guidance is hinting at another bout
of shower/storm activity more southeastward out of SD and into SW
MN, associated with aforementioned frontal boundary that continues
to push south through MN. By Tuesday afternoon and evening,
scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible across the
forecast as the upper level system departs eastward.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Thereafter, the flattened upper level high pressure over southern
half of CONUS will shift westward over the southern Rockies and Four
Corners Region. This will induce more amplified NW flow aloft across
MN through the second half of the week. Quiet and fair weather
conditions will resume with low-end chances of rain Thursday
afternoon/evening and into Friday as well. Temperatures through the
remainder of the work week and into the weekend will hover around 80
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The start of the period remains relatively quiet with some MVFR
visibility lingering in western WI set to dissipate by the first
hour, followed by high clouds in FEW250 with some fair weather
FEW050 cumulus after 17-18z. The difficult part of the forecast
begins around 21-22z when -TSRA chances arrive in western MN for
AXN/RWF, however high-res guidance has struggled to capture the
timing of the front and therefore best chance for storms. As
such, went with some fairly broad prob30 groups that we will
hopefully be able to narrow the window with more confidence as
we get a bit closer with more data coming in, but expect at
least a scattered line of showers and storms to be moving across
the entire area from west to east. Winds will become 6-8kts from
240-270 ahead of the front, becoming light and variable
afterwards but favoring 300-330.

KMSP...Unfortunately confidence remains fairly low in what is
actually going to arrive tonight, with -TSRA expected but the
exact timing and also strength uncertain. High res guidance is
all over the place with no clear consensus, so kept the prob30
group inherited from the 06z TAF going.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.
THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SW 5kts.
FRI...VFR, chc pm -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...TDH