175
FXUS63 KMPX 021103
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
603 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke and poor air quality expected to continue
  through the weekend.

- Rain chances spread across western Minnesota Sunday into early
  next week with a chance for more widespread later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Wildfire smoke will be slow to move out of the region, even as
the high pressure moves out into the Great Lakes. This will
allow for light southerly flow today. Air quality is better to
the south, but still not clear. So improvement is expected, but
poor air quality is expected to continue per forecasts from the
MPCA and WI DNR. Below normal temperatures this weekend
partially thanks to the smoke aerosols continuing to scatter
more of the summer sun`s heat back into space.

An upper low will transition over the Northern Plains tonight
into Sunday. This should provide enough upper level synoptic
support for some rain showers late Saturday into Sunday. The
upper support will remain into the early week. Based on model
soundings instability will increase and so will chances for
thunderstorms on Monday. Some chances on Sunday as well, but
CAPE looks much skinnier and less supportive of deep convection.
Looking ahead to the rest of the week there continues to be
multiple chances for rain across much of the area. The models,
both deterministic and ensemble, still have quite a bit of
spread. So bottom line, next week looks more active once again
with respect to rain chances. However as is common for the
summer, confidence will be low until we get closer to these
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The primary aviation concern will be smoke as it continues to
reduce vsby to as low as 2SM this morning. KEAU has fallen to
1/4SM but it is likely a combination of sfc smoke & actual fog.
Conditions will gradually improve back to 6SM vsby by this
afternoon. I`ve opted to maintain the trend with 4-6SM through
the TAF period. Winds turn light & may trigger additional fog
overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Otherwise, high clouds,
smoke, and then a SCT cu this afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA, Wind SE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BPH