623
FXUS63 KMPX 222329
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
529 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm November weekend continues Sunday. Much colder temperatures
  arrive later this week.

- Rain chances return Monday. Precipitation will transition to
  snow Tuesday into Wednesday. Potential for accumulating snow
  is increasing across central MN. Slick travel possible.

- Active pattern will bring additional snow chances through the
  end of next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Warm November Weekend Continues...Hopefully folks have been able or
are planning to take advantage of the mild temperatures this
weekend! Temperatures have warmed into the 50s across much of
south central MN this afternoon. The gradual eastward progression
of a surface front and associated cloud cover will allow for
continued warming this afternoon. On the flip side, temperatures
have been running cooler across western WI due to the clouds.
Mostly clear skies, light winds, and northwesterly flow aloft
will contribute to temperatures dipping below freezing tonight.
An approaching thermal ridge will expand east over the region
tomorrow and will advect in 925mb T`s of 9-10C. Suspect temperatures
will run on the high end of guidance as a result of mixing in
the southwesterly flow regime, so bumped up highs towards the
higher end of guidance. It`s within the realm of possibilities
that we see a 60 across southwestern MN tomorrow afternoon!

Rain to Snow Early Early this Week...National water vapor imagery
captures an upper-low spinning over the SW CONUS. This is the first
of two upper-level features to watch for the return of wet (and
potentially wintry) weather early in the upcoming week. The other
feature is a longwave trough which is forecast to come ashore over
the Pacific northwest Monday and translate east across the central
CONUS through midweek. Over the past few days we`ve discussed the
forecast challenges associated with the evolution of these features
(timing wise/potential phasing of the waves). Latest consensus
supports a faster progression of the southern feature/upper-low that
eventually shears out over the southern Great Lakes. Confidence
remains high that isentropic ascent ahead of the upper low will
combine with an anomalous moisture plume (PWATs ~200 percent of
normal) to spawn rain showers across the eastern half of the region
Monday into Tuesday. Latest PoPs from the NBM reflect this
confidence, with 70-80 PoPs in place across western WI and 50-70
PoPs across eastern MN. PoPs then decrease to 30-50 percent across
western MN.

The trailing longwave trough follows, eventually becomes a stronger
closed upper-low over SE MN/western WI, and spawns a surface cyclone
over the region Tuesday. This solution has been advertised largely
by the AIFS for several runs and several of the 06z/12z deterministic
solutions have latched onto a similar flavor. This will bring
renewed precipitation chances through the remainder of Tuesday.
Of particular focus will be the band of deformation precipitation
north/west of the surface low. Strong CAA depicted on forecast
soundings will support a transition from rain to snow within
the deformation band. Ensemble solutions have largely favored
northern MN for the best chance of accumulating snow/associated
travel impacts Tuesday PM through early Wednesday. However, the
evolution of the large scale features discussed above and potential
for a closed upper-low over roughly SE MN/western WI, would
conceptually favor the deformation band placement farther to the
south over central MN. Of note, a few more ensemble members
have trended this direction. While timing of the transition from
rain to snow remains a lower confidence portion of the forecast
(Roughly a 4-6 degree difference in 850mb temperature across
the Grand Ensemble membership early Tuesday afternoon), it is
fair to say that the conceptual model would support increasing
potential for some accumulating snow over central MN through
early Wednesday. WPC`s QPF through Wednesday has trended up and
is now between 0.25-0.75" (greatest amounts north of I-94), so
it`s less about if there will be moisture and more a question
of how much falls in the frozen p-type bin. We`ll continue to
work on the details here, but this bears watching for anyone
traveling prior to Thanksgiving.

Colder by Thanksgiving (Late week sneaky snow?)...Strong CAA will
usher in 850mb temp anomalies of roughly -10 to -14C Wednesday into
Thanksgiving. NBM has been extremely consistent in advertising
surface highs in the mid 20s/lows in the teens to close November and
begin December. Of note, should a southern solution to Tuesday`s
system produce fresh snow cover, it`s likely that the NBM is too
warm. We know Thanksgiving through the start of next weekend is
going to be much colder, but what about snow chances? It would
appear there is somewhat of a "sneaky" nature to snow during this
timeframe (Most likely later Friday through early Sunday). Driving
this portion of the forecast is a remnant baroclinic zone that is
forecast to advect northward ahead of the next longwave trough which
is progged to dig into the Pacific Northwest over the upcoming
weekend. Still too far out to lock down any specifics, however
any impulse that can traverse the temperature gradient could be
a player for an episode of frontogenic driven snowfall.
Where/when this occur will have to wait until we are much
closer, so we`ll opt to keep the grids dry through Friday and
roll with NBM`s chance PoPs for snow later Saturday evening.

Rumors of a More Notable Storm to End Next Weekend...By next Sunday,
ensemble guidance depicts the potential for a deep longwave trough
over western CONUS. While we of course tend to shy away from any
single solution in the 7+ day period, there are some signs in the
global guidance that catch our attention for the potential for a
larger scale storm system to end the upcoming Holiday weekend. For
one, the EPS has been consistently advertising anomalous 850mb
temperature advection across the central Plains. Such a strong
signal in the ensemble mean at this distance appears to reflect
a breeding ground for a stronger, more dynamic storm system. We
encourage folks to refrain from subscribing to any one model
output that shows a significant snowfall swath over the region.
Rather, stay tuned into forecast updates over the upcoming week
as the pieces come together (or miss the Upper Midwest!). A cold,
potentially active end to November and start to December is on
deck -- Winter 25-26 has come early!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Only change to the going TAFs was to boost sky cover Sunday
morning with batch of mid-level clouds that will move in on the
nose of the thermal ridge coming in Sunday afternoon. However,
this will be a VFR period with NW winds becoming southerly
Sunday morning.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Chc MVFR/IFR cigs. PM -SHRA. Wind SE 5kts.
TUE...MVFR, -RA changing to -SN in evening. Chc IFR. Wind bcmg
      WNW 10-15G25kts.
WED...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...MPG