600
FXUS63 KMPX 042339
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow showers will end late this afternoon. Another
  chance of rain showers for Sunday afternoon.

- The cool air will persist through Tuesday, then temperatures
  rebound closer to normal with several more precip chances mid
  week and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Widespread rain and snow showers continue eastward on the
southern edge of an upper level low over central MN.
Temperatures are at or above freezing, resulting in little
additional accumulation. Visibilities in the heavier bursts of
snow have dropped to a half mile at times, which is the main
impact for the rest of the day. These showers will diminish from
west to east later this afternoon as the upper low reaches
western Lake Superior. Winter Weather Advisories across western
MN are likely to be cancelled early.

Another upper level disturbance will slide southeast across the
Upper Midwest Sunday afternoon. Scattered rain showers will
accompany this feature, but should remain brief with how quickly
the wave will swing through. High pressure will build in Sunday
night and Monday, bringing what should be the coldest air for
the rest of the season. Highs will only be in the 20s or 30s
Monday. Lows Monday night should drop into the teens area wide.

The pattern midweek and beyond will feature the polar jet
returning to Canada and a broad trough across the western U.S.
Warm air advection will begin Tuesday as a system tracks east
along the U.S./Canadian border. Rain and snow showers may break
out Tuesday night in advance of a warm front/occluded boundary.
By Wednesday, strong southerly flow ahead of a cold front will
bring much milder air northward and it may be the lone day of
the next 7 to reach the 60s. Additional showers are possible
throughout Wednesday and Wednesday night until the cold front
works through.

Finer scale details beyond this point are far more uncertain.
Several various disturbances may interact with a quasi-
stationary boundary to the south to bring chances for showers.
Ensemble spread is quite large, but generally next weekend shows
some signal for the active pattern to return.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

One last swath of precipitation currently pushing east over
eastern MN into western WI at initialization, will be past MSP
by the start of the 05/00z TAFs but still may report -SN at
RNH-EAU over the next hour or two. Low ceilings will then remain
in place for much, if not all, of this TAF duration, bouncing
between MVFR and low-range VFR. A small chance of rain/snow
showers results in the inclusion of PROB30 groups for all but
the southern MN TAF sites (RWF-MKT) for Sunday afternoon. Winds
will continue from the NW throughout this duration, speeds
generally in the 10-15kt range with gusts around 20kts.

KMSP...Dry to start with decks around the 030 threshold between
MVFR and VFR through Sunday afternoon. A small chance for rain
showers Sunday afternoon forces inclusion of a PROB30 group.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-20kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...JPC