617
FXUS63 KMPX 111154
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
654 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged heat wave with hot and dry conditions begins today.

- Expect several days with highs in the low 90s, and heat
  indices of 95 to 100 degrees Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Latest satellite imagery showing clear skies early this morning
along with a few localized areas of patchy fog. Temperatures
currently ranging in the upper 60s with dew points in the mid
60s. The forecast remains on track with the main weather story
now being a well advertised heat wave ramping up this weekend. A
very anomalous upper-level high builds over the western CONUS
today which is progged eastward and deepens as it moves into the
northern plains, Sunday. Weak southerly flow will continue to
advect dew points into the upper 60s to a few lower 70s with
surface highs reaching near 90 degrees for most of us west of
the St. Croix River Valley. Western Wisconsin counties will
range in the upper 80s. With increased dew points temperatures,
WBGT values will reach the low 80s by late morning and heat
indices reaching the mid to upper 90s. As of now, these
conditions fall shy of heat advisory criteria but it is
important to remain hydrated and stay in the shade, wear light
colored clothing, and take breaks when needed to avoid heat
illnesses.

Sunday into early next week features the continuation of the
this heat wave with lack of precipitation chances until later
in the week. On Sunday through Tuesday, forecast high
temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s with dew points
remaining elevated in the upper 60s to low 70s. This will allow
for heat indices once again to creep near 100 degrees. As of
now, conditions look like we should dodge Excessive Heat
conditions however Heat Advisories will likely be needed
starting Sunday and persisting through Tuesday. By late week, a
weak surface low tries to bring in some rain chances mainly for
northern and eastern MN, and western WI, however NBM PoPs
advertise only low-end chances (sub 20%) at this time.
Nonetheless, given the warm forecast this week, conditions do
make for great opportunity to take advantage of lakes, community
pools, splash pads, etc. to help bring some relief from the
heat. I`ll leave you this nice fact to "cool" you off as well.
We are only 119 days from our average first snowfall for the
year (November 6th).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Aside from some patchy morning fog which is in the process of
burning off at initialization, solid VFR conditions expected
throughout this duration. Mainly clear skies through tomorrow,
possibly with some fair wx mid-level diurnal shallow cumulus
clouds during the day. Light/variable winds this morning become
southerly during the day today into tonight with speeds under
10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON-WED...VFR. Wind SW around 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC