429
FXUS63 KMPX 250908
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
308 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Incoming weather system today has trended towards greater impacts
due to higher potential snow accumulations and gusty winds across
most of the area.

- Rain transitions to snow from west to east from late afternoon to
evening today, with heavy snowfall rates possible. Winds gusting as
high as 40-45mph will result in blowing snow, reduced visibility,
and difficult travel overnight.

- Blowing snow will continue Wednesday until winds diminish later in
the day, with cold but otherwise quiet weather to end the week.

- A clipper type system will bring another chance for
  accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Today will be the most interesting weather day we have experienced
over the last few months with fog early, rain during the day turning
into snow later on, and significant blowing snow due to gusty winds.
To start with what is happening now, we are firmly within the low
level soup with low level stratus and fog overspreading the area
this morning, with visibility due to fog down to below a mile in
spots across the area. A few spots have dropped down to 1/4 mile
namely across portions of south-central MN from Mankato and
eastwards, with most of the area generally 2 miles or higher. The
cloud deck is just off the ground as low as around 200ft, so even
in spots that are not seeing significant fog development, the cloud
base is low enough that it will feel as though there is no
visibility regardless. Fog isn`t expected to go anywhere until rain
showers begin to overspread the area, which generally occurs from
west to east from late morning to midday as the leading edge of the
incoming trough reaches western Minnesota.

The high resolution guidance from 00z last night through this
morning remains aggressive on an overall southward shift from prior
guidance closer to what the AIFS has been pushing for the last 4-5
days, resulting in significant upgrades to not only snow amounts
across much of the area but overall impacts. The upper level trough
swings through with a surface low developing as it does, with
significant lower-mid level CAA crashing temperatures into the DGZ
by 22-23z in western MN and 00-01z in the Twin Cities. These
crashing temperatures will result in efficient snowfall production
as we saturate the DGZ and still see strong forcing due to the upper
level trough and surface low, with snow rates exceeding 1 inch per
hour possible from the onset of snowfall. A trowel shows up within
most of the high resolution guidance continuing to lead to highly
efficient snow production, with a brief dry slot possible mainly in
portions of southern MN as the rain moves out and the southwestern
edge of precipitation wraps around. The heaviest snowfall will occur
within the 2-3 hours after it transitions from rain, however light
snow looks to continue at least into early Wednesday if not
lingering through sunrise and into the AM commute. Strong surface
winds are expected to form as the surface low strengthens, resulting
in winds increasing to 20-30mph with gusts as high as 40-45, even
50mph in spots from the north to northwest from the afternoon
onwards. Snow ratios in the range of 15/18 to 1 could be reduced by
the strong winds, but generally we can expect the highest snow
amounts in central MN where the strongest band is most likely to
move through with the lowest amounts still in southern MN. The range
looks to be on the order of 6-8 inches across our northern CWA, down
to 2-4 inches in southern MN and western WI from Pierce to
EAU/Chippewa based off not only the blended guidance but also input
from CAMs. This may be an event where snow totals can vary
significantly based on land usage and where one measures, as the
strong winds will make it difficult to find flat areas that are not
affected by drifting and blowing snow. Generally, if you`re planning
on traveling before the holidays over the next few days, our
recommendation would be to leave either early today or wait until
later on Wednesday after the winds diminish and blowing snow becomes
less of a concern.

Gusty winds persist through daylight Wednesday, resulting in further
slow travel due to blowing snow that improves as winds diminish
Wednesday night. Temperatures at the surface will crash into the
teens by Thanksgiving morning as skies also begin to clear out on
top of the fresh snowpack, which often causes cooler temperatures
than guidance predicts as dew points can drop lower than expected.
These cold temperatures generally remain locked in through the rest
of the period and into early December with some guidance showing
single digit lows the first week of the month. Another chance for
light snow arrives Friday night into Saturday with a clipper type
feature sliding across the area, featuring a weak upper level trough
and surface low. Until we get through the short term system,
confidence remains low not only in placement but strength of any
mesoscale features, so stay tuned for further information on weekend
travel implications. Behind the weekend chances, we look to be dry
into early next week as a strong arctic high moves across the area
early in the week, leading to the aforementioned single digit
temperatures and keeping the cold air locked in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

It`s a wild weather period for this TAF set. First, we have the
stratus/fog over eastern MN/western WI. For that, pushed vsbys
down tonight through much of Tuesday morning at MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU
given the moist environment, limited mixing, and the fact we
already have low vsbys out there lends more credibility to the
soup coming out in force the rest of the night, lasting through
most of the morning given the light winds. At that point,
attention then turns to powerful upper wave now entering the
western Dakotas. In the 00z guidance, this storm is trending
south and in the angry direction. We`re seeing snow potential
increasing at all terminals. I don`t know if we`re going to go
quite as far off into the deep end as the RAP has, but all
terminals (save for EAU in this period) will see a period of
heavy snow Tuesday evening.

KMSP...Based on obs to the east and southeast of MSP, it`s
looking likely we`ll see LIFR cigs/vis by the time traffic picks
up Tuesday morning. -RA is expected to break out by noon, with
the transition to snow pushed back an hour from the previous
TAF. Snow totals are definitely trending up, with many of the
00z guidance indicating snow totals approaching 6 inches will be
possible Tuesday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR cigs. -SHSN early. Wind NW 15-25G30-35kts.
THU...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind NW to NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch from 9 AM this morning to noon CST today
     for Douglas-Pope-Stevens-Todd.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST
     Wednesday for Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Benton-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Redwood-
     Renville-Stearns-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Storm Watch Wednesday morning for Benton-Stearns.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-
     Hennepin-Isanti-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Scott-Sherburne-
     Sibley-Watonwan-Wright.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to noon CST Wednesday for
     Anoka-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-Isanti-McLeod-Ramsey-
     Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Washington-Wright.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Dakota-Ramsey-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Washington.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Goodhue.
     Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin.
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Polk.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to noon CST Wednesday for
     Barron-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Barron-Rusk-St. Croix.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...MPG