324
FXUS63 KMPX 281846
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible through early this evening
  which will be capable of producing large hail, damaging
  winds, and a few tornadoes.

- More chances for rain this weekend and early next week with
  temperatures remaining above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have already developed early this
afternoon across western MN. One storm that promoted Severe
Thunderstorm Warnings was an elevated supercell thanks to
MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and 35 kts of effective bulk shear.
Extensive stratus and fog across most of central and western MN
has kept temperatures stuck in the 50s, whereas farther south
and east temperatures are approaching 70 where skies cleared
early this morning. As the short wave continues east this
afternoon, additional development is expected across the warm
sector. Elevated storms have proven capable of becoming well
established across western MN already. The question is not
whether we will get widespread storms, but whether they will
become surface-based and therefore capable of tornadoes. Low
level instability is weak due to neutral lapse rates and
marginal surface moisture. Also, the widespread nature of the
development may further negatively impact any available low
level instability. Bottom line, expect storms and be aware of a
couple that may pose a threat for tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds, especially if the storms remain somewhat
discrete. This remains a conditional threat.

High pressure will build in for the rest of the week, then
settle over the East Coast this weekend. Return flow will bring
a chance of showers Friday night and Saturday. A larger scale
system still looks to take shape over the Rockies this weekend
and then pull across the Plains early next week. Some guidance
cuts the system off over the Plains with a large precipitation
shield to the north and east of the center. Others are more
progressive. Regardless how it eventually unfolds, more rain
should be coming next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Combination of VFR to IFR categories depending on what airport
you`re looking at this afternoon. Eastern sites have cleared
out from the cloud cover while western sites continue to
struggle from the low MVFR/IFR cigs. This will aid in quite a
thermal gradient and where we expect stronger TSRA to occur this
afternoon/evening. Tempos for TSRA have been adjusted back an
hour or so based off of latest CAM trends. As of now the
strongest TSRA is expected from MSP, RNH, EAU, and potentially
STC with timing between 22-01z. Southerly winds increase as
warm advection moves in from the south gusting to near 20kts at
times. Once the front and precip pass, winds shift NW`ly to near
10kts. Cigs and vsby will clear out back into VFR between
03-07z from west to east.

KMSP...Aside from what has been mentioned above, did delay timing
for TSRA back between 23 to 01z. Southerly winds will shift NW`ly
once the front passes this evening. Cigs improve back into VFR after
5z becoming mostly clear the remainder of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Dunleavy