046
FXUS63 KMPX 280310
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1010 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening
  mainly across southern and southwestern MN, and western WI
  this evening. A storm or two could become severe with
  primarily a large hail threat.

- Mainly dry conditions will follow for tonight through Labor
  Day, with chances for precipitation mostly across western MN.

- Mild but still below-normal temperatures will persist through
  early September. Broad area of high pressure continues to
  dominate for the next few days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Satellite imagery and surface obs indicate dense fog is
beginning to develop across portions of southern Minnesota.
Redwood Falls recently reported a visibility of 3/4SM and an
mPING report around Mankato reported dense fog. Guidance seem
to have a good handle on initial development occurring already,
with it becoming more widespread and dense overnight. Confidence
is such that a Dense Fog Advisory is justified in areas fog is
already forming, but it could be expanded a bit overnight
depending on how the situation evolves.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

We are currently positioned between two waves this afternoon. The
first wave is still to our north along the Canadian border, while
the other is a weak wave that stems from a parent troughing pattern
over the eastern CONUS. Across central MN and western WI, mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies are prevalent. The same cannot be
said about southwestern and southern MN though where convection
has already began to initiate. The aforementioned weak wave
positioned across eastern SD and western MN currently falls in
line with peak heating and some MLCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg.
Therefore chances for showers and thunderstorms this will
continue this afternoon into the evening for that region. Given
the current environment, the storm prediction center has placed
southwestern and southern MN under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) for the potential of severe storms for the rest of today.
Coverage for precipitation is expected to remain scattered at
best but with enough effective shear nearing 30kts, a storm or
two could become better organized and produce large hail. As we
enter the overnight hours, the Canadian Border wave will reach
eastern MN and western WI. Severe weather is not expected in
this region however a few showers and storms will be possible
tonight.

As we look ahead into the rest of this week into the weekend for
most areas, the overall pattern looks to be relatively quiet with
temperatures continuing to slowly warm back up to slightly below
normal values. Our next chance of showers/storms looks to remain
mostly over western MN starting Friday night into Sunday as
Canadian high pressure generates a nearly stationary wake low
over the Dakotas. As of now the weekend does not look like a
wash out but continue to monitor the forecast as placement of
this feature can greatly increase or decrease rainfall amounts.

After the Labor Day holiday into next week, temperatures will
continue to run in the 70s with only slight summertime precip
chances for precip each day until Wednesday and Thursday. A cold
front is forecasted to move through at that time through the Upper
Great Lakes region which will return temps back down in the the
upper 60s to low 70s for highs and upper 40s to low 50s for
lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Scattered TS across southern MN will dissipate this evening.
Additional showers and a few storms across northern WI could
clip parts of west central WI later this evening and early
overnight. Otherwise, widespread fog is expected to develop
across much of the area, particularly near the Minnesota River.
LIFR conditions would most likely result.

KMSP...Some of the low clouds and fog mentioned above may reach
the terminal overnight and into Thursday morning. Trended
conditions down a bit, but not as far as much of the guidance is
indicating yet. The probability of IFR conditions for a time are
increasing and LIFR conditions are also possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI-SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Goodhue-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui
     Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-
     Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Borghoff
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Borghoff