181
FXUS63 KMPX 271132
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of rain expected through early next week,
  including a few thunderstorms on Wednesday.

- Temperatures to run above normal through early next week,
  peaking with highs into the lower 70s on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A healthy dose of isentropic lift and moisture to the north of
a low pressure center over the NE/IA border continues to produce
an impressive swath of rainfall over most of the WFO MPX
coverage area this morning. The low will shift north into
southern MN and diminish, but not before rainfall totals in the
0.50"-1.00" range have been realized from this system, owing to
PWATs around 1.0" nudging northward in tandem with the surface
low. Though the rainfall will end from southwest to northeast
across our coverage area through this afternoon, cloud cover
will remain as there is no dry air to aid in scouring out the
low-mid levels. On the contrary, moisture and temperatures will
continue to slowly increase from today through Wednesday as the
washed-out surface low aids in frontogenesis across southern MN
this evening which will then rapidly shift north tonight into
Wednesday. This warm air advection is slightly evident this
morning as temperatures overnight near the IA border have
punched into the lower 50s while temperatures over the vast
majority of the coverage area range from the upper 30s in
central MN through the 40s in southern MN and western WI. The
warming trend will continue today as highs are expected to range
from the upper 40s in west-central MN to the lower 60s near and
east of the US-169 corridor.

This late October warm-up will continue in earnest on Wednesday,
which is looking to be the warmest day in this forecast
period. Highs will surge to the 60s area-wide, with some lower
70s likely to be realized in southern MN into western WI. This
warmth will only last the one day as the cold front of this
synoptic system will push through the region Wednesday
afternoon-evening. Pushing this front along will be a mid-level
trough over the north-central states, helping enhance mid-to-
upper level SW flow across the region. As previously mentioned,
along with the WAA will be elevated moisture advection to the
tune of dewpoints into the 50s to near 60, which could aid in
producing MLCAPEs of around 1000 j/kg Wednesday afternoon. With
the frontal passage in favorable afternoon-evening timing in
tandem with peak heating/moisture, there is a possibility of
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in addition to
fairly good rainfall coverage. COnfidence isn`t overly
impressive to have strong storms, but the possibility is there
for some thunderstorms to be organized and produce small hail
and/or gusty winds.

This cold front will push well into the Great Lakes by daybreak
Thursday with cooler high pressure filling in behind it.
However, with its origin of a more Pacific nature than Canadian,
the airmass will only cool off slightly behind it with highs
dropping to the mid 50s to mid 60s from Thursday through early
next week, which are values still above normal through the end
of October into early November. Another round of rain looks
likely Friday into Saturday as isentropic lift is again
heightened over southern portions of the coverage area in
advance of a warm front gaining impetus over the central Plains
into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. A similar situation to
this coming Wednesday then looks to potentially develop for
early next week, with the warm front snapping northward rapidly
with an approaching cold front from the west on Monday. We need
to see if this situation develops because additional
thunderstorms would be possible given the similar synoptic
scenario.

One item to start thinking about is when we could start seeing
freezing temperatures return to our region. Long-range ensembles
still portray the thinking advertised in the previous
discussion, that we may not see solid freezing temperatures
until at least the middle of November.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A continued mix of IFR/MVFR with some VFR sprinkled in this
morning as the last of the rain showers push northeast out of
the area within the first few hours of the TAF. Generally we
expect to see OVC skies for most of the period with CIGS
generally MVFR, with VFR most likely for EAU/RNH. While we will
be above 6sm most of the time, there will be periods of very
light -RA/-DZ due to the lower cloud bases and remnant forcing
leftover from the rain. Winds will shift from around 120-150 at
10-15kts at the beginning of the period, shifting towards
180-200 by 18-20z then returning to near 150 by the very end of
the period.

KMSP...A brief period of LLWS is possible at the beginning of
the period with winds aloft from 210-240 at around 35-40kts
compared to surface winds at 150/10kts. Current CIGS are VFR
with guidance suggesting we drop down to MVFR throughout the
day, so elected to stick with the persistence forecast.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA likely. Wind SE 8-12kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...TDH