495
FXUS63 KMPX 171752
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1252 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday night.
  Best chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is this
  evening, focused across western Minnesota.

- Quiet weather returns for the second half of the week with
  near-normal temperatures and only low rain chances Thursday
  into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages. A somewhat progressive weather pattern with chances of
showers and storms across the area this evening/tonight, with
another shot of showers/storms Tuesday evening. Temperatures will
hover right around the seasonal average through the period.

.TODAY AND TUESDAY...

Your Monday starts off very similar to how Sunday ended, cooler and
drier. Quite pleasant for mid August standards. Throughout the day,
low level southwest flow will increase, which will also promote
moisture advection ahead of an advancing frontal boundary. This
frontal boundary is associated with a quick moving upper level
system that will dive southeast out of the Canadian Prairies and
towards the Great Lakes Region. Scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop during the late afternoon timeframe over the
eastern Dakotas and western MN before progressing east-southeastward
across MN during the evening hours. A strong storm or two will be
possible as this activity progresses east-southeastward as 1000-1500
J/kg of SBCAPE is present, along with more than sufficient shear. By
Tuesday morning, high res model guidance is hinting at another bout
of shower/storm activity more southeastward out of SD and into SW
MN, associated with aforementioned frontal boundary that continues
to push south through MN. By Tuesday afternoon and evening,
scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible across the
forecast as the upper level system departs eastward.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Thereafter, the flattened upper level high pressure over southern
half of CONUS will shift westward over the southern Rockies and Four
Corners Region. This will induce more amplified NW flow aloft across
MN through the second half of the week. Quiet and fair weather
conditions will resume with low-end chances of rain Thursday
afternoon/evening and into Friday as well. Temperatures through the
remainder of the work week and into the weekend will hover around 80
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions through the afternoon with scattered showers &
thunderstorms developing across the eastern Dakotas & western
Wisconsin this evening. This precipitation will move east
throughout the night but it is still uncertain just how
widespread the rain could become, thus will stick with a PROB30
mention at terminals this evening. MVFR to IFR visibility along
with sporadic wind gusts over 20-30 mph are likely with any
thunderstorms tonight. ANother round of thunderstorms is likely
during the early morning hours, this time mainly across
southwestern Minnesota. Precipitation may extend farther north &
east into the metro & western Wisconsin after sunrise, but the
lighting threat will be lower. Southwesterly winds around 10 kts
along with gusts to 20 kts diminish by sunset. Lighter
northerly to northwesterly winds take over by tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Main window for any precipitation at the terminal will
be during the evening round of storms, generally between 9 PM &
midnight. less confidence for the morning round but the bulk of
this activity will stay south of the terminal

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.
THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SW 5kts.
FRI...VFR, chc pm -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...ETA