232
FXUS63 KMPX 271952
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening mainly
across southern and southwestern MN, and western WI this evening. A
storm or two could become severe with primarily a large hail threat.

- Mainly dry conditions will follow for tonight through Labor Day,
with chances for precipitation mostly across western MN.

- Mild but still below-normal temperatures will persist through
  early September. Broad area of high pressure continues to
  dominate for the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

We are currently positioned between two waves this afternoon. The
first wave is still to our north along the Canadian border, while
the other is a weak wave that stems from a parent troughing pattern
over the eastern CONUS. Across central MN and western WI, mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies are prevalent. The same cannot be
said about southwestern and southern MN though where convection
has already began to initiate. The aforementioned weak wave
positioned across eastern SD and western MN currently falls in
line with peak heating and some MLCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg.
Therefore chances for showers and thunderstorms this will
continue this afternoon into the evening for that region. Given
the current environment, the storm prediction center has placed
southwestern and southern MN under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) for the potential of severe storms for the rest of today.
Coverage for precipitation is expected to remain scattered at
best but with enough effective shear nearing 30kts, a storm or
two could become better organized and produce large hail. As we
enter the overnight hours, the Canadian Border wave will reach
eastern MN and western WI. Severe weather is not expected in
this region however a few showers and storms will be possible
tonight.

As we look ahead into the rest of this week into the weekend for
most areas, the overall pattern looks to be relatively quiet with
temperatures continuing to slowly warm back up to slightly below
normal values. Our next chance of showers/storms looks to remain
mostly over western MN starting Friday night into Sunday as
Canadian high pressure generates a nearly stationary wake low
over the Dakotas. As of now the weekend does not look like a
wash out but continue to monitor the forecast as placement of
this feature can greatly increase or decrease rainfall amounts.

After the Labor Day holiday into next week, temperatures will
continue to run in the 70s with only slight summertime precip
chances for precip each day until Wednesday and Thursday. A cold
front is forecasted to move through at that time through the Upper
Great Lakes region which will return temps back down in the the
upper 60s to low 70s for highs and upper 40s to low 50s for
lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

A few isolated showers will linger across southern MN this
afternoon. Better chances comes in the late afternoon/evening
hours across southern MN into the southern Twin Cities metro. I
have made the switch to -TSRA/CB vs -RA in the PROB30s across
our sites. For our Wisconsin sites, another disturbance will
drop SE from northeastern MN into western WI this evening and
overnight. This will also bring a chance for showers to
southeastern MN. Confidence on any site experiencing -SHRA or
TSRA is low, but non-zero given the iso/sct nature of the
precipitation. A brief drop into MVFR visibilities are possible
in the heavier showers/storms. Winds will continue with speeds
under 10kts from the south and become light & variable
overnight. There is a signal for patchy dense fog, so I`ve
introduced BR into several of the terminals. Any BR/FG will
scatter out by mid-morning on Thursday.

KMSP...I have maintained a PROB30 for MVFR visibility
thunderstorms & showers late this afternoon into this evening.
The primary concern will be showers, but there is enough
instability to support the mention of thunder in the PROB30
versus just -RA. We will monitor trends on radar & in latest hi-
res guidance for any future adjustments.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI-SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...BPH