306
FXUS63 KMPX 121153
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
653 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a dry day today, scattered thunderstorms can be expected
  for western through southern Minnesota late tonight into
  Thursday morning. There is a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk that
  a few storms may be severe.

- Widespread steady rainfall is likely Friday night through
  Saturday.

- Temperatures remain warm today then go on a cooling trend
  through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The wavy west-to-east quasi-stationary front referenced in
previous discussions sill remains draped over the Central Plains
into the mid-Mississippi River Valley and southern Great Lakes.
Weak high pressure remains to the north of this front,
essentially sitting atop MN/WI through the day today. This will
result in dry but continued warm conditions today with highs
into the 80s area- wide with a mix of sun and clouds. Clouds
increase tonight as a low- level trough feature, emanating from
a low pressure center along the front over the Plains, extends
northeast into the Upper Midwest. Once again, enhanced low-level
nocturnal jetting interacting with this trough within a
continued moist environment (low 70s dewpoints again expected in
far western into far southern MN) will spark off scattered
showers/thunderstorms from this evening through daybreak
Thursday morning. The focus area of convection will be far
western through far southern MN, in closer proximity to the
omnipresent surface front and its associated trough. Storms look
to develop in eastern SD and drive southeast, potentially in
enough of an organized fashion where a few storms could be
strong to severe late tonight into early Thursday morning. The
SPC SWODY1 does a good job of focusing in the Marginal Risk of
that potential, while also indicating that the better chances
for higher concentration/intensity of storms will be to the
south of the WFO MPX coverage area.

A small airmass change looks to occur starting on Thursday as
northwest flow takes a better hold over the region and modified
colder Canadian high pressure makes inroads from the northwest.
This will start a period of highs dropping into the 70s area-
wide and lows in the 50s outside of the Twin Cities metro (near
60 within). There is decent agreement on an organized area of
low pressure arriving from the southwest Friday into Saturday,
dragging a slug of moisture from the Deep South into the Upper
Midwest as it arrives. This looks to result in fairly widespread
rainfall from late Friday through much of Saturday in the form
of more stratiform rain rather than convection. That said, model
guidance has tweaked down the overall QPF of the system,
ranging from around a half inch in the Twin Cities metro to
closer to an inch near the IA border and into southwest WI from
Friday through Saturday. Still not expecting much in the way of
thunderstorm activity but a few embedded t-storms are certainly
possible.

Temperatures overall look to remain fairly steady from late this
week into early next week, with the north-central CONUS
remaining under the influence of northwest flow. There are still
some signs of a western ridge developing late next week which
could result in an appreciable warming for the Upper Midwest.
However, overall blended guidance through the next 7 days starts
out with temperatures above normal today then dropping slightly
below normal from Friday through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

All sites expected to run VFR through this duration, but chances
increase late tonight through early morning Thursday
(particularly for western-southern MN) for convection to reach
southwest MN from eastern SD. At this point, have added PROB30
mention to AXN-RWF-MKT for MVFR SHRA, but there is still the
possibility of IFR TSRA but confidence is too low to include at
this point. Winds still light throughout, from an easterly
direction if anything.

KMSP...Maintained a dry TAF but there is low probability of
having SHRA/TSRA potentially moving near MSP close to 12z
Thursday morning. Will let later TAFs address this possibility.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, -SHRA/MVFR likely late. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT...-SHRA, chc MVFR/IFR. Wind SE 10 kts shifting to W.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC