428
FXUS63 KMPX 182349
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
649 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms through sunset across far-southern
  Minnesota.

- Thunderstorms likely Thursday evening ahead of a cold front. A
  few severe thunderstorms possible.

- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend, warmer next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A cold front continues to drop southwards through the Upper
Midwest this afternoon with widespread thunderstorms initiating
along the front from southeast Minnesota through central
Wisconsin. So far, there has been little activity to speak of
across south-central Minnesota, but the agitated cumulus field
ahead of the front suggests we could still see an isolated storm
or two pop before the afternoon is over. Can`t rule out a
stronger storm with gusty winds & hail should anything develop,
but this threat looks to mainly be constrained to the Interstate
90 corridor & south.

Pleasant & dry Wednesday behind the cold front with seasonable
temperatures around 80. Moisture then increases through the day
on Thursday as southerly flow increases in response to a
surface low approaching the region. Another round of scattered
thunderstorms is expected ahead of the front during the late
afternoon & evening, with current model timing suggesting the
entire area will have at least some shot at rain/thunder.
Similarly to today, some strong to severe thunderstorms look
likely during the evening with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE present
along with around 30 kts of deep shear. Rainfall amounts will be
hit or miss, with an easy 1-2" of rain expected where
thunderstorms occur but likely around 0.1" or less elsewhere.

After the low moves through the area Thursday night, quiet
weather looks likely through the weekend with weak high pressure
over the region. High temperatures will be right around
seasonal norms for mid-August with highs around 80s, but we
could see some chilly nights with lows potentially falling into
the 40s in spots across central Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Temperatures trend slightly upward through next week
as upper level ridging builds into the central CONUS. Ensemble
guidance suggests another shortwave passes through the Upper
Midwest during the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, brining another
chance for scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

With high pressure moving in tonight, we`ll see light and
variable winds with skies clearing out. Only spot where some fog
will be possible is with the river at EAU. Wednesday, light
west-northwest winds will develop, along with a thin cu field
between 6k and 8k feet.

KMSP...VFR with light winds this period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG