604
FXUS63 KMPX 111720
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today over western and
  central MN with low humidity and breezy conditions.

- Breezy again Sunday with scattered rain showers. However,
  widespread, soaking rain is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Cloud cover over SD and NE will gradually move northeast, slowly
covering our CWA throughout today as an upper-level trough
crosses the Rockies. A strong, southerly LLJ will develop today
across the Northern Plains in response the nearing trough,
causing WAA and strong southeasterly surface winds over MN.
Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 60s for the
CWA. Meanwhile, winds will strengthen as one goes west with
western MN seeing sustained values near 20 MPH and gusts to
25-35 MPH this afternoon into tonight. This will bring the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions as humidities
during this afternoon will fall to 25-30% over western and
central MN. Building cloud cover could limit how warm
temperatures get this afternoon, but a couple hour window of
elevated fire weather seems possible today. Have decided to
issue a Special Weather Statement for the elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon for portions of western and central
MN.

CAMs favor the development of multiple rounds of rain showers
over the Dakotas and NE throughout today. The WAA and upper-
level diffluence downstream of the aforementioned trough are
what drive the QPF. This activity tries to travel northeast into
our region, but forecast soundings show a good amount of low-
level dry air over western MN. Thus, rain struggles to get a
footing in western MN until early Sunday morning and have
delayed the arrival of PoPs in western MN to reflect this.
Eventually, rain showers should be over western MN by mid-Sunday
morning. CAMs want to push this activity into central and
eastern MN by noon, but do show some dissipation into the early
afternoon. Almost like a lull in the precipitation that we`re
accustomed to seeing in the summer. The enhanced winds will also
spread area-wide while highs in the afternoon warm into the mid
60s to mid 70s. It isn`t until the trough and cold front arrive
towards Sunday evening that rain becomes more widespread across
the CWA. Numerous showers should sweep through our region,
exiting to our east by early Monday morning. Guidance QPF still
doesn`t look too impressive with at most 0.25-0.5" in western MN
while a tenth or two is possible elsewhere.

We`ll cool down to start the work week after the cold frontal
passage. Highs by Tuesday are forecast in the 50s while lows
Monday night and Tuesday night will be in the mid 30s to lower
40s. Frost would be possible during these nights, especially
over central MN. However, temperatures look to slowly rebound
throughout the latter half of next week, reaching potentially 10
degrees above normal by Friday. This will be due to
southwesterly flow downstream of a positively-tilted trough over
the west coast building a ridge over the central CONUS. Warm
air and moisture advection will occur into the Central and
Northern Plains, warming temperatures and bringing chances for
rain. Currently, next Thursday and Friday are our best
opportunities for rainfall as the trough over the west coast
moves east across the Rockies. While it seems a more organized
system is possible later next week from this trough,
considerable model spread still exists given it`s so far in
advance. 30-50% PoPs are smeared from Thursday to Friday and
we`ll have to wait for model spread to decrease as we get closer
to that time period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR and breezy for all sites at initialization time. Winds will
remain SE throughout this TAF duration with sustained speeds in
the 15-25kt range with gusts 25-35kts, highest speeds in western
and central MN. High clouds will steadily increase through
tonight, then ceilings will gradually lower overnight through
the day Sunday. An approaching cold front will bring increasing
chances for showers from around sunrise in western MN then
spreading eastward during the day tomorrow. Not expecting
anything heavy nor any thunderstorms at this point, so have kept
the precipitation potential within VFR range (except for AXN,
which may well have ceilings dip into MVFR range midday Sunday,
along with much of central MN).

KMSP...VFR with high clouds through the day today and high
ceilings tonight through sunrise. Ceilings drop into the mid-
levels from Sunday morning onward with chances for showers best
late afternoon into the evening. Breezy SE winds, mainly within
130-150 direction, with speeds gradually increasing as this TAF
duration progresses, eventually becoming around 15G30kt late
tonight through tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC