118
FXUS63 KMPX 061124
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
624 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Higher confidence in scattered storm development across
  western MN this afternoon, likely dissipating before reaching
  Twin Cities and eastern MN.

- More widespread rainfall possible Monday night into Tuesday,
  though areas across northern MN are favored for heaviest
  amounts.

- Seasonable airmass arrives for the rest of the week after
  Tuesday with only small chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Ridging remains in place across the
central plains this morning, with a corridor of greater
surface moisture stretching from the Gulf Coast up through the
Dakotas. The Marginal Risk from the Day 1 SWO does look a little
goofy, though it does match up with this region of greater
moisture and instability. Zooming into our area, the greatest
chance for storm development today will be across western MN.
Timing and coverage are still pretty low confidence though. The
remnants/energy from the storms ongoing across western Nebraska
this morning are the most likely trigger for storms this
afternoon in Minnesota and Iowa. You see this idea with the
latest runs of the HRRR and RRFS, where storms bubble along the
axis of higher instability. There are reasonable scenarios where
storms are relatively limited in coverage, but have a greater
chance of producing marginally severe wind or hail... or you get
widely scattered storms that are mostly garden variety with a
few becoming more organized at points. Regardless of how
widespread in coverage the storms become, the drop-off in
MUCAPE values to the east will struggle to support any storms
from advancing much farther than the line from St Cloud to
Mankato.

After storms dissipate some time Sunday evening, it will be a
relatively quiet end to the long weekend until our final wave
of this pattern moves through overnight Monday into Tuesday.

A potent shortwave trough will break us out of this hot and
stormy pattern, bringing one last push for rain. The trough
itself will not be orientated as favorably for a high end
severe threat, though the SPC does have a Marginal Risk for Days
2-3 covering the Monday night to Tuesday morning window. The
greatest rainfall amounts are still favored along the
international border closer to the surface low, though we will
certainly take any moisture we can squeeze out from the cold
front that sweeps across the southern half of the state and into
western WI. The majority of the morning actively should be
mostly wrapped up by noon, leaving us in a cooler and drier
airmass heading into the rest of the week.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Seasonable temperatures and mostly
dry conditions look to be the main story for the second half
of the week. Northwest flow aloft may support a weak wave from
sparking small rain chances any day, though there is no real
strong signal from any long range ensemble guidance. As we get
to the end of the weekend and into next week, there are some
signs pointing towards a negative PNA phase which could support
an even bigger push into fall-like weather for the central US.
Heck, there are trees near the office already starting to drop
their leaves, though it is more out of moisture preservation at
this point...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Very few issues this TAF duration with mainly high ceilings.
MVFR ceilings starting out at AXN with IFR ceilings at RWF, both
of which will dissipate by late morning, with VFR conditions
continuing for all sites through Monday morning. A few showers
are possible in western MN later this morning into early
afternoon, thus the PROB30 at AXN, but chances are too low
elsewhere so have kept other TAF sites dry. Winds will run SE
throughout this duration with speeds around 10kts, with fairly
frequent gusts to near 20kt in western MN from late morning
onward.

KMSP...No precipitation is expected at MSP at this point, as the
precip ongoing in western-northern MN looks to run into more
stable air and dissipate, along with there being high
uncertainty with the CAMs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...SHRA/MVFR likely with chc TSRA in mrng. Clearing late.
Wind S 10-15kts bcmg W.
WED...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC