047
FXUS63 KMPX 141942
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
242 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm & humid the rest of today into tomorrow.

- Thunderstorms expected Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Locally
heavy rain is likely in addition to a chance for severe storms
Tuesday evening.

- Additional chances for thunderstorms this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Overall turning out to be a nice afternoon despite it feeling a
a tad muggy. Some clouds mixed with wild fire smoke exist
across northern MN and another narrow band of cu exists along a
surface boundary from southern MN into western WI. One thing to
note is that surface instability is quite high given the
warmer/muggier conditions however, convection is not expected to
initiate due to low-level capping near 850mb. Thus continued to
maintain practically null PoPs through this evening.
Temperatures for the rest of today should peak in the upper 80s
to near 90 this afternoon with lows only cooling into the low to
mid 70s overnight.

Tuesday through Wednesday`s forecast features both heat and storms.
For much of the day, increasing southerly flow will continue to
bring warmer moist air into the upper midwest. Temperatures are
forecasted to warm into the low to mid 90s for most areas less those
across north-central MN where cloud cover and precip from a
developing cold front could help keep conditions a little cooler.
Where sunshine looks to be more prevalent, decided to blend in
some NBM 90th percentile Max Temps to reflect current thinking
for warmer conditions. With that said, heat indices will
uncomfortably range between 95 to near 100 degrees across the
Twin Cities metro where a heat advisory will be in effect
through Tuesday evening.

Now for Tuesday into Wednesday`s thunderstorm threat, low pressure
over the PacNorthwest becomes positively tilted and ejects a
shortwave out of the Rockies. Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold
front over the Dakotas advances eastward. Its expected that by
Tuesday afternoon and evening these features converge to what will
generate showers and thunderstorms. The SPC has maintained a
marginal risk of severe storms for much of central and southern MN
and western WI, however an upgrade to a slight risk was published
for portions of north-central MN and northwest WI. The environment
will continue to be unstable with 2500 to 3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 20 to
35kt shear profiles supporting a few rotating updrafts to produce a
large hail and damaging wind threat. Currently, a tornado risk looks
more favorable within the slight risk area due to the frontal
boundary being forecasted to strengthen with support of stronger
flow aloft. Storm mode will feature multi-cell clusters congealing
into broken linear segments. Another concern with these storms will
be heavy rainfall. Forecast soundings indicating PWAT values near 2"
which supports 1 to 2" p/hr rainfall rates. Training convection does
not look to be a case here but more so some that areas could see
multiple rounds of thunderstorms which would increase any flooding
risk. Overall, a few localized areas could see potentially 2 to 3"
of rainfall, although more realistically ranging between 1 to 2
inches across central MN and western WI, and then 0.5 to 1" across
southern MN.

By Thursday we dry out as high pressure builds with skies
gradually clearing throughout the day. Most noticeably will be
temperatures at least 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal.
Wildfire smoke could be possible given NW`ly flow but still too
far out to determine if any impacts to air quality will occur.
Temperatures are forecasted to range in the low 70s with with
dew points in the mid 50s. The cooler temperatures wont last
long though as temps return to near 80 by the end of the week
with dew points in the mid 60s. Next shot at rainfall looks to
potentially be Saturday, and then again on Monday into Tuesday,
however guidance needs to tighten up timing before committing
categorical pops to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Smoke has largely improved early this afternoon with VFR
conditions expected to continue through the period. Winds are
light and variable to southerly. An uptick in wind speeds is
expected by tomorrow morning as well as a turn to the southwest
ahead of an approaching cold front. While there are some low
chances for -SHRA early tomorrow morning for KAXN and KSTC,
opted to leave any mention out for now since confidence is low.

KMSP...Southwesterly winds will gust to around 20kts during the
afternoon tomorrow. Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU...MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dye