606
FXUS63 KMPX 151838
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
138 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widely numerous showers and storms this afternoon
  and evening. Lightning and brief heavy rain are the main
  impacts.

- Temperatures continue to hover right around the seasonal
  average for the middle of August.

- Next round of showers and storms will come Monday into Tuesday
  with another cold front passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

There is an increasing chance for scattered storms this evening
as a weak cold front travels eastward out of the Dakotas.
Latest satellite imagery shows a somewhat slowly deteriorating
low level cloud deck across western MN while high-level anvil
clouds overspread from the southwest. In the areas that have
seen enough clearing, increasing dewpoints and warming
temperatures have built in a pool of moderately unstable air.
This destabilization combined with the weak forcing from the
front are expected to support the development of widely
scattered storms this evening. Most CAMs have aligned on this
solution, with some more bullish than others. Confidence is low
that everyone will see storms tonight, but the trend supports at
least a broader coverage. Given the limited heating across
eastern MN, we expect any storms that develop out west to wane
the further east they get. Nothing severe is expected given the
weak midlevel lapse rates and wind shear, though some strong
gusts could be possible as the storms first develop across
western MN.

As the front exits overnight, winds increase out of the
northwest and bring in much drier air. While it may be breezy
at times with gusts up to 20 mph, Sunday will be a very nice day
with plenty of sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s.

Active weather returns Monday into Tuesday as an upper level
shortwave deepens over the Hudson Bay. For the most part, Monday
will remain nice with mostly clear skies. Increasing southwest
winds will begin to advect moisture in though, resulting a
slightly more humid day and a chance for late afternoon storms.
Our latest PoPs have increased in the latest forecast package
to match this trend. The better forcing for storm development
comes late Monday into Tuesday as a southwestward-advancing
cold front collides with the moderately unstable air. Depending
on the timing of the front, the better chance for any severe
weather potential may end up favoring Iowa rather than across
our region. You can see this trend with the latest QPF as well,
putting the bullseye more into northern Iowa rather than
southern MN as it looked 24 hours ago.

Behind this front, temperatures cool off slightly on Wednesday,
then gradually recover through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

It`s been a dreary start to the day, with many terminals seeing
some impact from drizzle and patchy fog. There are pockets of
IFR / low-end MVFR conditions still this afternoon as cigs are
slow to rise. We are seeing some clearing out in western
Minnesota though, and this will continue to spread east. With
the clearing clouds comes an increasing risk for storms this
afternoon and evening. As the front moves through, expect
scattered storms to develop along the line and push east with
it.

For the most part, clouds will become more scattered after the
front passes through. Though there is a growing signal that
lingering moisture will allow MVFR or even IFR cigs to develop
across eastern MN into western WI for a short period tomorrow
morning. Outside of that, conditions should improve
significantly by late morning as winds increase out of the
northwest and bring in much drier air.

KMSP...Cigs are hovering right around 1000 ft to start the
period, and they should generally trend upward over the next
1-2 hours based on upstream observations. The best window for
any TS tonight is between 23-02z, though there is a little
wiggle room there depending on quickly the front moves through.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED