052
FXUS63 KMPX 160809
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
309 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers expected this morning into early afternoon before
  temperatures warm well above normal through Friday.

- Rain possible Friday and Saturday night as a low pressure
  system develops over the Midwest. Cooler air will follow to
  end the weekend.

- Fluctuating temperatures for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The atmosphere remains very moist tonight, particularly in southwest
MN where mist/fog is reducing visibilities. A Dense Fog Advisory
remains in effect for our counties along and south of the Buffalo
Ridge. Visibilities currently aren`t meeting dense fog criteria (1/4
mile) but isolated patches of 1/4 mile are still possible through
sunrise. A band of scattered showers has also started to form from
southwest MN to north-central IA within a zone of strong 925 hPa
WAA. This precip basically denotes an effective warm front and the
front will continue to lift northeast through this morning. The
showers should become more widespread as time goes on, particularly
over central MN and western WI. A rumble of thunder may even be
possible. While the rain won`t be significant, us being south of the
warm front will mean we warm to well above normal today through
Friday. Highs each day are forecast to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s
while lows tonight for south-central MN may struggle to drop below
60. Drier air will also arrive from the south, helping to give some
breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon over southern MN. Winds
will also increase over MN as a LLJ strengthens ahead of an
approaching upper-level trough. Gusts are forecast to reach 20-30
MPH this morning into this afternoon.

A few isolated to scattered showers are possible in western MN
tonight as a pressure trough slides west to east through MN/WI.
Precip activity is expected to remain mostly subdued until late
Friday morning into the afternoon when daytime heating can help.
Highest chances (20-40%) for rain would thus be from southern MN
into western WI. Highs on Saturday will still be relatively mild
across our east with mid to upper 60s forecast. But, a low pressure
system will begin to spin-up over the Midwest Saturday night into
Sunday, dragging a stronger cold front with it. This will cool
temperatures back down towards normal for the end of the weekend.
Guidance, particularly the GFS, also develops a deformation band of
rain on the backside of the low over our CWA. Currently have 15-30%
PoPs over southeast MN and western WI, but these may need to be
shifted west and increased in future forecasts. Also, wind gusts may
need to be increased Saturday night as a nice compact northerly LLJ
also forms to the west of the low.

Temperature look to warm slightly Monday as the upper-level pattern
becomes progressive, allow for ridging to briefly move overhead.
Deterministic models are in better agreement now (as compared to
yesterday) about an amplified shortwave diving into the central
CONUS later Monday into Tuesday. This feature acts to form a surface
cyclone somewhere over the Great Lakes/Midwest, though differences
in low placement and track exist. Still, we do have a 20-40% chance
of seeing rain throughout Tuesday before the low travel east. More
certain is a return towards normal temperatures through mid-week as
we should firmly placed within the CAA behind the cyclone. We`ll
have to see how long temperatures remain close to normal, though, as
long-range guidance favors developing another upper-level ridge over
the western CONUS the second half of next week. This feature should
inevitably move east and likely bring us another round of warmer
weather towards the end of October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

For western and central MN terminals, mist and fog will cause
reduced visibilities through most of this morning. Prevailing
MVFR/IFR is likely with periods of LIFR, especially near RWF
where visibilities should drop to 1/2sm. A band of showers
should also move southwest to northeast through the forecast
area, starting in southwest MN near 08Z and reaching WI by 11Z.
Once these showers move through, clouds will begin to partially
break while bases lift. Daytime heating should burn off any
remaining fog by late this morning. By this evening, expect all
terminals to be VFR, though a chance of -SHRA exists at AXN
tonight. Southeasterly winds will gradually turn southerly while
maximizing in speed this afternoon. Western MN will see the
strongest winds with sustained values near 15 knots and gusts to
around 25 knots. Southerly LLWS of 40-45 knots is also expected
Thursday evening for MN terminals as a LLJ passes overhead.

KMSP...While mist continues and a -SHRA are expected from
10-14Z, visibilities should not drop below VFR. IFR cigs will
last until about 14Z before clouds slightly break apart. Cigs
should rise to VFR near mid-Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly
winds will gust to near 20-25 knots this afternoon and southerly
LLWS of 40 knots is expected overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Brown-Lac
     Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG