578
FXUS63 KMPX 021833
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
133 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today and most of tomorrow, with multiple chances for showers
and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Friday.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for Wednesday
evening (west of I-35) and Thursday afternoon/evening (area-wide). A
few storms could linger into Friday, but Friday is a low confidence
forecast.

- Temperatures remain above normal this week, and warm this weekend,
with mid to upper 80s on Sunday, lasting into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Today through Wednesday... Early afternoon satellite imagery with
surface obs showed an area of high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes, and southeast return flow over the Upper Midwest. A
convergence boundary was draped across the western Dakotas, and this
was the focus for a few thunderstorms.

Over the next 24 hours, this boundary will slowly move eastward
toward the Minnesota/Dakota border , but until then, expect dry and
summer-like conditions across Minnesota and Wisconsin. By Wednesday
afternoon, a few thunderstorms could develop across western
Minnesota. Some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
damaging wind, as indicated by the SPC Day2 outlook.

The overall severe weather setup is pretty benign, with moist mid
level lapse rates of 6 to 6.5 C/km, and light, fairly unidirectional
winds leading to less than 40 kts of deep layer shear. So expect
scattered thunderstorms, and perhaps a few reports of large hail and
wind, but overall nothing to uncommon for early June. These storms
should weaken as they move eastward Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday... This is when the more widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected across the region, and the SPC has a
Day3 Marginal Risk across most of the area. At this time, the
frontal boundary should be a little better defined, the mid level
lapse rates will be a bit steeper, and low level moisture should be
higher in comparison to Wednesday. As a result, the CAPE and deep
layer shear profiles will be more favorable for severe storms.
Depending on the surface heating Thursday afternoon, it wouldn`t be
surprising to see a slight risk expanded across the region.

Heavy rain could also be a concern as PWATs approach 1.75 inches,
but given the overall dry conditions, any flooding would be tethered
to local heavy downpours from slow moving thunderstorms. Based on
the forecast soundings showing a high tropopause, efficient rain
processes are certainly in play, and could see hourly rainfall rates
in excess of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

By Friday, the boundary is expected to be closer to a line from
Albert Lea to Eau Claire WI, but there is considerable uncertainty
on to where exactly it will be located. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected along this boundary. There is currently
not a severe weather outlook area due to the uncertainty in the
placement of the boundary, but look for this to be added as we get
closer to the event and confidence increases.

Saturday into next week.... Looking ahead, this boundary should be
south and east of the forecast area by Saturday, which should set
the stage for a dry and warm weekend with highs on Saturday in the
low to mid 80s, and highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 80s. There
is a small chance (15 to 25 percent) for rain over the weekend, but
as of now, expect dry conditions. By early next week, another round
of moisture will lift up from the south ahead of an upper level wave
embedded in southwest flow. This will bring additional thunderstorm
chances for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR. South-southeasterly winds between 8-12kts with few
to scattered upper-level cigs for the rest of today. Western sites
this afternoon could see occasional gusts reaching between 20-25kts
before weakening this evening. Our next system arrives late
Wednesday night into Thursday so any mentionable precip expected to
be held off until the 00/06z routine issuances.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts.
FRI...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB