352
FXUS63 KMPX 091129
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
529 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered flurries possible today, with highest
  chances in far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- Cold and windy today before warming to near/above normal for
  the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Scattered flurries have been moving south along I-35 overnight,
with highest reflectivity currently near Faribault. This light
snow brought a dusting to portions of the Metro, with a few snow
covered roads present on MNDOT cameras. Forecast soundings
depict a saturated dendritic growth zone with steep low-level
lapse rates this afternoon, indicating more of these scattered
snow showers can be expected again during daylight hours today.
This is the case across much of the region, with scattered light
snow showers and flurries possible for much of Minnesota and
Wisconsin today. These chances are reflected in the PoP grids
with widespread 10-20% through late Sunday, highlighting the
uncertainty of where snow will come to fruition at a given
time/location. What can be said with confidence is that any
precipitation today will be in the form of light snow/flurries
due to the cold airmass overhead and max temperatures sub-
freezing this afternoon. Snow should remain cosmetic in nature,
meaning no more than a dusting in terms of accumulation and
little to no impacts are expected. A tight pressure gradient
will contribute to the return of gusty winds today. Winds have
already begun to howl at the forecast office as of 2AM. They`ll
remain breezy and northwesterly, which will contribute to cold
wind chills (single digits) for anyone outside Sunday morning --
only `warming` to the teens for the afternoon.

By late Monday, the surface high will slide to the southeastern
CONUS and temperatures will return to near/above normal as
ridging builds. Temperatures will remain mild in mid-November
terms for the remainder of the week. Highs are forecast in the
upper 40s to 50s Tuesday through Sunday thanks to a mild airmass
sprawling across much of the country. The upper-level jet will
be centered over the Upper Midwest, leading to the potential for
a shortwave disturbance Tuesday/Wednesday, although likelihood
of this remains low at this time. Only 20-30% of EPS and GEFS
members have measurable precipitation during this timeframe,
with measurable being less than a hundredth. The next real
target of opportunity for precipitation arrives at the very end
of the forecast period, next weekend. Ensembles are picking up
on QPF, but in great disagreement as to amounts. The takeaway
being a signal and increased likelihood for a system to move
through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Flurries have been ongoing early this morning, but it appears
most terminals will see a brief break before additional chances
for flurries/light snow develop by early afternoon. Conditions
should remain largely VFR, but have added in TEMPOs to account
for periods of -SN and MVFR cigs during the mid afternoon and
evening. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest with gusts of
20-25kts.

KMSP...Tried to target the most likely window of -SN and MVFR
conditions with a TEMPO between 21z-01z. Perhaps this can be
fine tuned later this morning. Otherwise, gusty winds continue
for a few hours after dark before diminishing with clearing
skies.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW bcmg SW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S bcmg WNW 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...Dye