


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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785 FXUS63 KMPX 080529 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1229 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - First freeze of the Fall season possible across portions of central MN/western WI tonight into early Wednesday morning. - Frost likely tonight into early Wednesday morning. - Temperatures surge into the 70s later this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Current conditions are seasonable with plenty of sunshine across the Upper Midwest. Our expansive high pressure will continue to promote light winds and clear skies, which will set the stage for the coldest morning of the year so far. I have opted to go cooler than NBM to better represent what should happened. I have blended in a mixture of NBM25 and hires guidance to lower temperatures. As a result, temperatures in the low to mid 30s is forecast across much of central & southern Minnesota. We`ve expanded the Frost Advisory further south to capture counties most likely to see Frost, those who fall in the low to mid 30s. Lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s are forecast along & north of I-94 (Including the TC Metro). Morning lows in the mid to upper 30s can be expected in western and far southern Minnesota. The remainder of the week will experience a gradual warming trend in response to a ridge building back over the north-central CONUS. High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s (west) are forecast to climb into the 70s area-wide Friday through the weekend. This will mean our high temperatures are 10+ F above normal, but not as warm as it was last week. Unfortunately, much of this period will be dry under the ridging aloft, but there are a few chances for precip. The first chance for a shower/storm will be Thursday evening/night across eastern MN/western WI as an elevated warm front associated with a weak disturbance moves through. The next window for potential precipitation arrives Sunday into Monday as a more pronounced longwave trough moves across the western CONUS. This system still has plenty of spread in potential solutions so we opted to maintain the NBM PoPs for Sunday-Monday timeframe. Long term guidance suggests that the upper-level pattern will remain active next week with additional systems in the pipeline. Temperature remain on the mild side, too. This is supported by CPC`s 8-14 day outlooks, which feature above normal temperatures and precipitation across the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Aviation...Quiet conditions continue this TAF period with SKC and VFR for all locations. Weak winds to near still early this morning then becoming 150-180 at or below 10kts by 16-18z. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20kts. FRI...VFR. Wind S BCMG NW 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Carver- Dakota-Douglas-Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod- Meeker-Pope-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns- Steele-Washington-Wright. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Chisago- Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Pepin-Pierce- St. Croix. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...Dunleavy