085
FXUS63 KMPX 060539
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers & thunderstorms chances continue across eastern & southern
  Minnesota and western Wisconsin this evening.

- Cooler temperatures arrive tonight, with patchy frost possible
  Tuesday night in western Wisconsin. This will be short-lived
  with highs returning to the 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Current radar imagery highlights a band of showers & thunderstorms
over the MN/WI border. These will continue to move east into WI and
bring a quick tenth of an inch of rain. Additional development
remains possible across S MN this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Latest hires guidance has this redevelopment between 22z and
00z across S/SE MN. Forecast soundings depict a few 100 j/kg of
SBCAPE that should be enough to lead to intermittent rumbles of
thunder. These showers could graze the S/E Twin Cities metro
before moving into W WI this evening and overnight. The latest
QPF has trended up to 0.50"+ for W WI overnight - must needed
rain given the recent stretch of warm & dry weather conditions.
Winds shift to the northwest behind the passing cold front this
evening & gusts taper off overnight. Lows will bottom out in the
40s & 50s tonight as cooler air settles in behind the departing
system.

For this upcoming work week, surface high pressure builds into the
region the first half of the week. This high pressure will support
clear skies & light winds - allowing overnight temperatures to fall
into the in the 30s and 40s Monday & Tuesday night. This could lead
to patchy frost across portions of central MN and western WI.
Temperatures may even flirt with freezing across NW WI early
Wednesday morning. This high pressure will shift east mid-week,
allowing southerly flow to return across the Upper Midwest.
Temperatures will slowly warm throughout the week with highs in the
low to mid 70s by Thursday. This stretch of seasonably warm
temperatures looks to continue into mid-October, too. Unfortunately,
after today there isn`t a clear signal for any meaningful rain
through the rest of the forecast period. There is a chance for some
isolated showers Thursday afternoon but nothing that would bring
widespread rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Showers have left the area and VFR conditions are expected
through the period. MVFR cigs are draping MSP and east, but
should move out in the next few hours as the front progresses.
currently over AXN will last a few more hours this evening.
Scattered to broken mid- level clouds are expected Monday
afternoon, with showers possible across far southern Minnesota.
Confidence in impact to any terminals (namely, MKT) is low and
have left out of TAF at this time. Winds will slow in speed to
around 5 knots, and remain under 10kts through Monday. North-
northwesterly winds through the period, backing to the south
on Tuesday.

KMSP...Pesky stratus should move out of MSP in the next few
hours, with the back edge over STC right now. Otherwise, no
additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...PV