941
FXUS63 KMPX 310026
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
726 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few hit and miss showers through Saturday, but nothing that
  will significantly impact plans.

- A slow moving low will move across the Upper Midwest Monday
  into Tuesday. This system will have near record high moisture
  content for November, with a widespread soaking rain expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A few showers are ongoing this afternoon across far southern
Minnesota on the northern edge of a theta-e gradient along the
Iowa border. Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes
this afternoon will shift east tonight and allow deeper moisture
transport to begin overnight. Can`t rule out a few showers
lingering across southern MN this evening before expanding in
coverage and northern extent overnight into Saturday morning.
With the lack of any decent and focused forcing, these warm air
advection showers should remain scattered and brief - nothing
that will washout Halloween activities. Otherwise, the last day
of October will feature light southeast winds, cloudy skies, and
temperatures in the 50s. Can`t completely rule out a few random
light showers around for the rest of the weekend with a weak
shortwave lingering in the vicinity through Sunday, but by this
point the moisture transport will have waned to a degree the
odds of staying dry far outweigh the off chance of seeing a
brief period of rain.

Model consistency has improved significantly from a couple of
days ago for early next week. A large and deep trough pushing
onshore the West Coast Saturday will reach the Rockies Sunday
and the Plains Monday. With surface high pressure parked over
the mid Atlantic states through the western Atlantic Ocean, a
deep and persistent fetch of tropical moisture will advect north
in advance of the approaching trough. Also, from the Pacific, a
tropical wave will be picked up by this trough while it reaches
the West Coast. Pwats exceeding 1.5 inches will begin reaching
the central Plains by Sunday evening, and then will reach the
Upper Midwest Monday morning. These values are 4-4.5 standard
deviations above normal. A 50+ kt 850 mb jet with this degree of
moisture will lead to 300+ gm/kgs moisture transport magnitudes
throughout the day. A surface low will track northeast across
the central Plains to somewhere across eastern SD or western MN,
possibly stall and meandering for a time, then continue to push
off to the northeast as it interacts with a secondary
disturbance. Moderate to heavy rain will arc from the northern
to eastern quadrants of the system, ensuring the entire forecast
area is likely to see beneficial rains. How fast this
precipitation moves through and the track of the meandering low
will ultimately dictate rainfall totals, but chances are solid
for widespread 1 to 2 inches with about a 10 percent chance of
greater than 3 across western and central MN by Tuesday night.
As for the severe risk, it continues to appear low but
conditionally intriguing if the boundary layer theta-e values
can overachieve. Forecast soundings are moist adiabatic,
possibly as a result of heavy rain rates in the model, but
surface temps would need to be about 15 degrees warmer to result
in any upright instability. Given poor lapse rates aloft, even
the general thunder threat is fairly low.

Model consistency drops off after Tuesday and differences
in the evolution of the upper low become apparent. Some models
linger showery precip into Wednesday, some even longer. Split
flow returns late next week with no discernible sensible weather
features to track.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Ceilings lower through the night with most sites expected to
reach MVFR ceilings overnight into early tomorrow morning.
Scattered rain showers spread north across Minnesota & Wisconsin
through the morning with brief periods of MVFR visibility
possible, although VFR will prevail. MVFR ceilings stick around
through the period along with southeast winds of 5-10 kts.

KMSP...Chances for rain sowers will exits through much of
Saturday, but 7-12 AM looks to be the primary window. Showers
will be short-lived & brief periods of MVFR visibility are
possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON...MVFR/IFR. SHRA. Wind SE 10-15G30 kts.
TUE...MVFR. -SHRA. Wind SE to NW 10-15G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...ETA