891
FXUS63 KMPX 192308
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
508 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy drizzle and fog overnight, but surface temperatures
  will remain above freezing so no impacts from icing expected.

- Mild with slightly above normal temperatures and no
  significant precipitation chances into early next week.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday and last through the
  Thanksgiving Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today and Tonight...Visible satellite imagery together with
surface obs showed cloudy skies across the region, with a few
lower visibilities due to some lingering fog and light mist.
This trend will continue overnight as a weak pressure trough
moves across the region, so have continued with a chance for
drizzle and fog overnight as the forecast soundings show low
level saturation and weak lift. Fortunately surface temperatures
will be in the mid-30s, so not anticipating any impacts from
icing.

Thursday through Sunday...On Thursday, winds will become
northwest as the surface trough passes through, which will
clearing skies from west to east, and perhaps a few peeks of sun
by Thursday evening. High pressure will settle in, and for the
most part remain in control as the Upper Midwest is sandwiched
between the northern stream storm track across Canada, and a
cutoff slow over the desert southwest. This will keep the region
dry and mild through early next week.

Monday through the Thanksgiving Weekend...Looking ahead, on
Monday the cutoff low will slowly migrate eastward, while a
potent shortwave trough moves over the Pacific Northwest. How
these two features interact will determine the weather across
the Upper Midwest. For example, if the southern stream upper
level low kicks out farther north and slower, that will lead to
a more northerly track for the shortwave trough, and any snow
associated with it will fall across Canada. If that shortwave
trough is faster and farther south, then it could dig across
the Upper Midwest, bringing cold air and accumulating snow
across the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin on
Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning.

Needless to day, anytime a cutoff low is involved, the forecast
confidence decreases. So for that reason, not leaning towards
any one solution at this point with regards to chances of snow.
One thing that is more certain is the idea that cold air will
follow for the middle of next week, and should last through the
weekend. For now, we`re looking at highs in the upper 20s to low
30s, with lows in the teens or single digits. So it will be
cold, but as of now, not expecting it to be hazardous.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 501 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Not much change this evening with stubborn low clouds and some
patchy drizzle keeping conditions MVFR/IFR. Expecting IFR/LIFR
cigs and vis later on this evening through the overnight hours
with more fog/drizzle. Things begin to trend back towards MVFR
by tomorrow morning, but the majority of terminals will not make
it to VFR territory until beyond the end of this TAF period.
Winds remain at 10kts or less and will slowly turn northwesterly
into tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Still uncertain if KMSP will see any of the fog/drizzle
vis reductions overnight, but have left it out since it seems
more likely further north and east. Cigs should come back up
above 020 by mid afternoon with VFR conditions finally back for
the very end of the forecast period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind W 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Dye