194
FXUS63 KMPX 011141
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
541 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread soaking rain Monday trough Wednesday. Amounts of
  1-2" expected, approaching 3" across west-central Minnesota.

- Highs in the 60s today through Tuesday (in western WI) will
  fall back into the 40s and 50s the rest of the week, but will
  still be running around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

It`s a cloudy start to the day as weak shortwave energy works in
aloft, with southerly winds at the surface keeping temperatures and
dewpoints overnight above our average high for November 1st. It`s
those dewpoints that have been driving some fog out there. Central
and northern MN have been on the cusp of fog all night and that will
continue through about 10am. Outside of central MN, any brief
clearings that develop quickly start to fill in with fog, but those
clearings have been quickly filling back in with mid/upper clouds
which has led to a bit of a whack-a-mole setup for fog overnight.
Down in Iowa, we are seeing a patch of clearing skies down around
Des Moines and most of the short term guidance and the NBM shows
these lower cloud cover skies coming up into eastern MN and western
WI later today. Given the fact that we will be starting the day with
temepratures still in the 50s, we`ll have no problem warming into
the 60s. Depending on how much sun we get today, 925mb temps near
15C will support highs in the low 70s, which is what the NBM 90th
percentile has for highs for Mankato, Rochester, the Twin Cities,
Eau Claire, and points in between.

Tonight, the longwave trough moving across the Rockies this morning
will be heading out on to the Plains. Right now, this trough is
becoming detached from the northern stream, with a southern stream
jet streak being the feature that will push the trough out into the
central CONUS. This southern stream jet streak will kick out into
the Great Lakes tonight, leaving the longwave trough in a zone of
weak upper flow until the next southern stream jet streak arrives
midweek. Models are in good agreement through Monday night on the
initial low pressure moving into central MN, but how this upper low
and related surface low/s evolve the rest of the week is more
uncertain. At the very least, we look to keep periods of rain
showers going through Wednesday and possibly continuing into
Thursday.

Where models maintain fairly good agreement is with the initial low
that comes into central MN Monday night. This has shifted north some
in the last 24 hours, but the idea of a large shield of moderate to
heavy rain moving across the area during the day on Monday remains.
Monday night, a dry slot will move into southern MN as this low
becomes occluded. PWATs with this initial push of moisture will be
near 1.6". The highest observed PWAT we`ve had in the month of
November was 1.47" back with a 12z sounding on the 10th in 2022.
Once this low hits the occlusion phase, models start to differ on
how this and subsequent lows will evolve between MN/IA and WI
through Thursday. As this system slowly churns across the area,
we`ll see periods of deformation rain come and go Tuesday and
Wednesday. With this degree of moisture moving in, we continue to
see some incredible QPF values for November, with storm totals over
3" still possible from northeast SD into central MN, which would be
more than twice our normal liquid precipitation for the entire month
November.

By the end of the week, split flow will take shape as the broad
trough moves into the Great Lakes. This will dry us out to end the
week, but we may have one more shortwave to deal with on Saturday as
a clipper type wave drops down out of Canada on its way around the
eastern trough. Other than that though, the split flow looks to
result in seasonably mild and dry weather into the middle of the
month. For the winter fans out there wondering when we may finally
start seeing snow and cold temperatures, you have to run out into
the extended runs of the ECMWF and GFS to find any inkling of colder
weather at the end of the month with our exceptionally mild fall
weather continuing for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

It has been a frustrating night for aviation, with mid/upper
level cloud deck with some clearing patches leading to an
assortment of cig conditions out there from VLIFR to VFR. As we
go through the morning, the clearing of the mid/upper level
clouds down in Iowa will move up into eastern MN and western WI,
with at least a few hours of sun expected at MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU.
For STC and AXN, it will be tough to completely shake the
stratus today. Tonight, a large storm system will begin moving
out across the Plains, with a wall of water moving across
southern MN late Sunday night. By the end of the period RA and
IFR cigs will be quickly overspreading MN.

KMSP...We could start seeing light rain as early as 8z, but the
wall of water and steady rain looks to arrive between 12z and
15z Monday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...RA/IFR likely. Wind SE 15-20G30kts.
TUE...RA/IFR. Wind W 10-15kts.
WED...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG