545
FXUS63 KMPX 081125
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
625 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A frosty morning today will warm up to eventually have
  afternoon highs near normal (low 60s).

- Above normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s for the
  remainder of the week will be accompanied with mostly quiet
  weather, with the next best chance for precip late this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A cool, frosty, and still night is ongoing across central and
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Several locations
across central Minnesota (north of I-94) and northwestern
Wisconsin are experiencing their first freeze of the season. A
dry airmass is in place, so dewpoints are low enough such that
fog will not be a concern this calm and clear-skied morning.
Temps in the 30s are not expected again for the next 7 days,
with the exception of potentially Friday night in central
Minnesota. So, if your plants survive this morning, they should
have at least another week left in them! High pressure remains
overhead today, before departing to the Great Lakes on Thursday.
Southerly winds will pick up slightly Thursday afternoon as the
high departs, with sustained 10-15MPH and gusts 20-25MPH. A
shift to north-northwesterly surface winds for Friday won`t have
much impact on the above normal temperatures in the forecast.
These warmer than normal high temperatures won`t be as warm as
the previous heat, but upper 60s and low 70s in mid-October is 5
to 10 degrees above normal. We can thank a ridge building aloft
for the warmer, and dry, weather.

Looking into any precipitation chances for this forecast
period, they are hard to come by. With the aforementioned dry
airmass in place and the ridging to come, things will remain
pretty quiet. There is a slight (20-30%) chance for precip east
of I-35 as a weak front passes Thursday night in conjunction
with a small disturbance aloft. The better chance for more
widespread precip arrives late this weekend as a longwave trough
moves across the CONUS. A good soaker isn`t likely despite this
set up, with most guidance showing around a quarter inch max, a
few outliers to a half inch. In addition to rain chances, winds
look to be quite breezy Sunday as the upper- level jet
stretches across the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Quiet conditions continue, with SKC and VFR for all locations.
EAU managed to have some fog this morning, but it should be
short lived, as represented by a TEMPO through 13Z. Calm winds
early this morning will become light and southerly for most by
mid- morning. Western Minnesota will see slightly higher winds
this afternoon (gusting to 15-20kts at AXN), but remain
predominately southerly.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S BCMG NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Douglas-Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-
     Meeker-Pope-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-
     Steele-Washington-Wright.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Chisago-
     Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd.
WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Pepin-Pierce-
     St. Croix.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...PV