433
FXUS63 KMPX 271732
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms may still impact parts of western WI early this
  morning, but chances are diminishing.

- Heat continues with highs in the low 90s through midweek, but
  dew points are expected to fall into the 60s this afternoon.

- Storm chances return Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

At 2 AM, the dew point at MSP climbed to 81. This has only
happened on a few days in recorded history. Per the Minnesota
State Climatology Office, an 81 degree dew point was measured
on July 17, 2011; July 18, 2011; July 19, 2011; and July 30,
1999. The all-time record is 82 set back on July 19, 2011.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Unimpressive convection continues to fire on the cool side of
the +12C isotherm at 700 mb from north central MN into central
WI. So far there have been no signs of deeper convection
developing that has a chance to form into an organized complex,
but that still may happen overnight. Should that happen, WoFS
has been indicating perhaps Rusk County being clipped with that
activity. However, given the 700 mb temps and the K-Index
becoming less impressive with time across WI, odds are activity
will remain east of even Rusk County. A cold front will pass
through this morning and winds will shift northwest and gust
this afternoon. Dry air advection will send currently very
impressive dew points in the upper 70s to lower 80s down into
the 60s this afternoon. Just before midnight, the dew point at
even MSP reached 79, which is quite rare. Despite this, heat
indices will climb back to 100 across southern/east central MN
and parts of western WI as air temperatures rise quickly this
morning. Elevated smoke will return from fires in the Pacific
Northwest, which may temper highs a bit, but the hot overnight
lows expected will give us a decent head start. The drier air
this afternoon will also make the air easier to heat, which may
offset the increased smoke some.

The trough will largely bypass us to the east early this week.
While we`ll knock down the dew points and the intensity of the
heat some, temperatures are still going to be above normal
heading into midweek.

A shortwave trough will round the ridge, centered over the
southern Rockies, to the northern Plains Wednesday night and
the Upper Midwest Thursday night. There will be a lot of
moisture to work with as pwats increase to 2-2.25 inches. Severe
weather risk appears negligible due to near moist adiabatic
lapse rates, but showers and embedded thunderstorms have the
potential to produce heavy rainfall.

Temperatures return to near normal for Friday and the weekend,
but there are indications of the heat returning early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Quiet 18z TAF period. Northwesterly winds gust between 20-25kts
this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Skies are mostly
clear over the terminals, however satellite reveals the presence
of wildfire smoke aloft. Since the smoke is elevated, I did not
include any mention in the new TAF package, but will monitor
observational trends through the period. Guidance displays mid
to high clouds moving out of the Plains tonight, however clouds
levels are forecast to remain at VFR levels. Winds turn out of
the ESE for Tuesday and should remain light, between 5-10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. TSRA likely in evening. Wind SSW 5-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-
     Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-
     Waseca-Washington-Watonwan.
WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunn-Eau Claire-
     Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Borghoff
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Strus