317
FXUS63 KMPX 031110
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
510 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers expected to continue through Thursday with
  highest QPF amounts focused over western and central
  Minnesota.

- Temperatures come down to near normal values by the end of the
  week with overnight lows near or below freezing through the
  weekend before a slight warm up early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Aside from some drizzle, precip has tapered off early this morning.
Western and central Minnesota were the winners in terms of rainfall
totals, with around 0.75" to 1" or better for the past 24 hours. Far
west central Minnesota did see a handful of amounts greater than
1.5" to 2". This will hopefully be reflected as some beneficial
rainfall for this week`s drought monitor update. Looking at surface
obs, a surface low is centered just north of St. Cloud, with winds
turning west to northwesterly across roughly the western half of
Minnesota. It`s apparent where southerly flow is still in control,
with both MSP and STC hitting their daily high temperatures just
before midnight. It`s likely that today`s high`s will occur early
this morning and will slowly fall or remain steady through this
afternoon. This surface low will continue to move to the north-
northeast as a second surface low moves up out of the Central
Plains, bringing with it another round of showers by late
morning/early afternoon. The trajectory of this second low will be
further east into central Wisconsin, placing western and central
Minnesota under the axis of heaviest precip. However, this second
round will come with lower QPF amounts than what we saw Monday.
Still, additional rainfall amounts of 0.5" to 1" are expected
through Thursday. North-northwest winds will remain on the breezy
side for the western half of the CWA during this time period with
gusts up to 30 MPH possible.

This system finally moves out Thursday with temperatures returning
to more typical November normals (highs in the upper 40s/low 50s,
lows in the low 30s). While Friday will be dry, it may end up still
being a fairly cloudy day. A shortwave looks to move through
Saturday, bringing some low PoPs back to the forecast. Following
this, temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 50s by the end
of the period. We`ll start next week dry and likely stay that way
with high pressure building in through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Another round of rain is pushing into southern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin this morning. Elsewhere, drizzle/fog has
visibilities bouncing around with solidly IFR cigs. This will be
the case through the period with some TEMPO drops to LIFR. Rain
will continue to spread north and west through the day as a
surface low makes its way into eastern Iowa/western Wisconsin.
Winds will remain northwesterly for the western half of
Minnesota and will be gusty for KAXN and KRWF. For the rest of
the Minnesota terminals, winds will start out west-northwest
before becoming more northwesterly this afternoon. Wisconsin
will see this wind shift from the south to the southwest by this
afternoon with speeds generally 10kts or less. IFR conditions
will prevail into tomorrow morning.

KMSP...The rain moving up from Iowa will come awfully close to
KMSP in the next couple of hours, so added a PROB30 to account
for this. Otherwise, the window for heaviest rain will be
sometime between 18z-23z. There will likely be a break this
evening where conditions improve slightly, but another round of
heavier rain is expected during the early morning hours
Wednesday. Winds go northerly overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED... -RA/MVFR, Chc IFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
THU... VFR, chance AM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
FRI... VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dye