863
FXUS63 KMPX 161123
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to hover right around the seasonal
  average for the middle of August.

- Next round of showers and storms will come Monday into Tuesday
  with another cold front passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages. A somewhat progressive weather pattern with chances of
showers and storms across the area Monday evening/night, with
another shot of showers/storms Tuesday evening. Temperatures will
hover right around the seasonal average through the period.

.TODAY AND MONDAY...

After FROPA early this morning, much drier air will infiltrate the
area from the northwest with DP temps dropping back into the upper
50s this afternoon/evening. That said, today looks quite pleasant
with high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with
decreasing cloud coverage through the day.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

On Monday, pleasant weather conditions will continue through most of
the day with high temperatures in the low 80s. The next mid/upper
level piece of energy will lead to isolated to scattered showers
and storms Monday night into Tuesday morning. SW low level flow
will increase through the day on Tuesday, allowing for better
moisture and instability to advect in across the southern half
of MN. This coupled with sufficient forcing associated with
southeastward advancing cold front will promote an increase in
shower and storm chances Tuesday evening/night. Current guidance
has the focus for activity across southern MN where the best
moisture and instability resides, along with better
timing/advancement of the aforementioned cold front.

Thereafter, the flattened upper level high pressure over southern
half of CONUS will shift westward over the southern Rockies and Four
Corners Region. This will induce more amplified NW flow aloft across
MN through the second half of the week. Quiet and fair weather
conditions will resume with low-end chances of rain Thursday
afternoon/evening. Temperatures through the remainder of the work
week and into the weekend will hover around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A quieter TAF period is upon us especially as the lower level
clouds continue to erode on satellite imagery this morning. We
will lose low level saturation as we start to warm, with any
MVFR level clouds dissipating by 16-18z. VFR is expected for the
rest of the period for all sites. Winds will favor 300-330 at
around 10kts with isolated gusts up to 20kts possible before
falling back to less than 5kts after 02-04z.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...TDH