187
FXUS63 KMPX 021736
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1236 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing complex of storms progresses S/SE from northwest
  Minnesota through the morning. No severe weather expected.

- A few severe storms (risk level 1 of 5) possible this
  afternoon/evening with the arrival of a strong cold front.

- Temperatures cool down significantly midweek into the weekend,
  before rebounding next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

GOES IR satellite imagery this morning shows a complex of storms
traveling almost due south from northwest Minnesota. Hi-res
models have been, and will likely continue to struggle with this
850mb WAA influenced convection. Spoiler, this is foreshadowing
for a somewhat low confidence forecast later today. We expect
the ongoing convection to continue in strength as it rides down
the instability gradient, which may have it take a bit more of a
southeastward path once it reaches the I-94 corridor. By then
it may start to wane in strength, but 30 to 40% PoPs look
reasonable for areas as far southeast as the Twin Cities metro
and western Wisconsin later this morning. There`s just limited
instability out there, so it may be more showery.

As that activity moves out, a plume of moisture will see surface
dew points rise into the low to mid 60s, allowing ~1000 to
2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to build ahead of an approaching cold front.
We would expect scattered clusters of storms to initiate as low
level convergence maximizes along the front, eventually forming
into broken line segments. There have been some dramatic shifts
in the hi-res guidance as they try to resolve this morning`s
convection. Both the 00z RRFS and 06z HRRR struggle to initiate
much of anything across Minnesota by the time the front reaches
a line from Mankato to the Twin Cities. While these solutions
do not seem as likely, they do show the complexity and lower end
confidence with this particular setup. Forecast soundings show
adequate 0-6km shear (~25 kts) and mid level lapse rates (6-7
C/km) to produce isolated severe wind gusts and hail with any of
the stronger cells. This remains highlighted in the SPC
Marginal risk (1 of 5), though the main threat area may need to
be adjusted after the morning convection shows its cards. Timing
for the front looks to be around 5-7PM for the St Cloud area
and 8-11PM for south-central MN up through the Twin Cities metro
and much of western Wisconsin.

The action will continue into Wednesday, with gusty NW winds on
the order of 20-30 mph, cooler temperatures into the 50s and 60s,
and scattered CAA showers and storms during the afternoon.
Another quick shortwave behind this front will actually shift
us back into a warm sector again Thursday with a slight recovery
in surface temps. More showers and storms will be possible
ahead of and along this front. Friday will see temps knock right
back down, with NW winds gusting to 20-30 mph again. Long range
models continue to show the Canadian high lingering through the
weekend, with an upper ridge finally starting to nudge the
trough eastwards. We should begin to recover temps starting next
week, with no large signal for precipitation under northwest
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Scattered showers will continue over western and southern MN and
west-central WI into early this afternoon. A few rumbles of
thunder may also be possible across MN so have added TEMPOs for
-TSRA at RWF and MKT. This precip will push southeast by mid-
 afternoon with a line of additional scattered showers and
 storms expected to develop ahead of a cold front by late
 afternoon/early evening. Coverage remains questionable enough
 to maintain PROB30s for -TSRA at all terminals: MN`s starting
 in the late afternoon while WI`s start in the evening. If -TSRA
 occurs, expect visibility reductions to MVFR and low-end VFR
 cigs. This precip will also exit to the southeast by tonight.
 For MN, some light showers are possible overnight but
 conditions should remain VFR. For WI overnight, cigs will fall
 to MVFR with EAU possibly reaching IFR into Wednesday morning.
 However, confidence is not currently high enough to warrant
 mention of IFR cigs at EAU in this TAF period. Southwesterly
 winds turn northwesterly once the cold front passes through
 this evening/tonight. Winds will increase during Wednesday
 morning with gusts reaching 20 knots.

KMSP...Maintained PROB30 for -TSRA from 00-04Z this evening
until confidence in storm coverage and placement increases.
Winds turn northwesterly around 06Z Wednesday once the cold
front passes. Northwesterly winds will gust to 20-25 knots
during Wednesday and have added another PROB30 for possible
-SHRA Wednesday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Chc MVFR/SHRA PM. Wind W 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...CTG