448
FXUS63 KMPX 061055
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
555 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are expected to develop over eastern North Dakota into
  northwest Minnesota this afternoon. These will move into
  western and central MN this evening, with some strong to
  severe storms being possible before they dissipate overnight.

- There are Slight Risks for both severe weather and excessive
  rainfall Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Uncertainty
  remains with what latitude a west to east oriented band of
  heavy rain will fall Tuesday night.

- Heat and humidity start building again over the weekend, with
  potential for a heat wave increasing for Sunday into the first
  half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

With an upper ridge axis overhead, we`ve had pretty quiet weather
overnight, with the only cloud cover being convective debris
stemming from storms out across NoDak and southern Canada. Those
storms are being driven by a shortwave over southern Saskatchewan
that will head for northwest Ontario tonight. This will push a cold
front into northwest MN later today, a front that will be a focus
for thunderstorm chances locally through Wednesday as it slowly sags
south through the area.

Today, that front front will likely generate storms in the Red River
Valley, where the HREF shows mlCAPE exceeding 3000 j/kg. Deep shear
is maybe 30 kts, but as we saw back on the 4th, this level of
instability is sufficient to get some occasional severe storms
going. Current model consensus favors these storms in the Red River
Valley eventually organizing along a cold pool that will push south
into western and central MN. This should push a line of storms into
western or central MN this evening. These storms will be moving into
the MPX area near or a little after sunset and without a LLJ to help
sustain them with the loss of daytime heating, these storms are
expected to weaken pretty rapidly, with them likely not making it as
far south as Redwood Falls or Minneapolis. The initial Day 1
convective outlook does an adequate job of highlighting where we`re
expecting some severe weather potential in our area. Given the
timing of these storms and expected linear mode by the time they get
here, our primary severe risk will be damaging wind gusts, with a
secondary risk for large hail.

Tuesday through Tuesday night. The main source of uncertainty for
Tuesday is how far south will convection from today/tonight push the
boundary. Along this boundary, the combination of a right entrance
region from a jet streak to the north of Lake Superior and a
developing southwesterly LLJ that will overrun the surface boundary
will set the stage for a potential heavy rain event. There`s still
uncertainty with how this unfolds. Will it just be several rounds of
loosely organized  storms that run along the nearly stationary
boundary? Will we manage to develop an organized MCS that travels
across MN through the night? No matter which adventure we choose, a
swath of heavy rain will result, likely in the form of a 50 or so
mile wide swath of 1 to 3 inch rain amounts. In the guidance, you
see this rain axis falling anywhere from as far north as Fargo into
the Arrowhead (ECMWF), to as far south as Aberdeen into the Twin
Cities (GFS/NAM). Typically, we see storms in a setup like this lean
into the instability, which would favor a more southern track for
these storms. 48 hours out, somewhere near the latitude of St. Cloud
looks to be the most likely path for these storms to travel, though
that will likely move as we start getting into CAM window today.
Besides the heavy rain, this environment will be supportive for
severe weather. Strong wind gusts looks to be our primary severe
hazard, with a hail threat existing as well. A tornado threat would
likely be a very narrow window close to sunset as the LLJ starts to
strengthen while some surface based instability still exists.

Wednesday will have the same initial problem as Tuesday. Where does
the boundary end up after convection from the night before. As
heating/instability build into the afternoon, storms should refire
along the front. This currently looks most likely from south central
MN up toward Eau Claire (so southeast of the Twin Cities). This will
have a severe risk as well, though with limited shear and less
instability than what we see Tuesday, that severe risk looks more
limited, which is highlighted in the Marginal Risk on the Day 3
convective outlook.

Thursday and Friday will bring high pressure, dry weather and a bit
of a reprieve from the heat and humidity as dewpoints fall back into
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

For the weekend into next week, models continue to highlight the
development of a strong ridge of the central CONUS, with h5 heights
in excess of 600dm expected by the start of next week somewhere over
the central CONUS. We are seeing models converge toward that ridge
encompassing MN by Sunday and continuing to do so into early next
week. By Monday and Tuesday, the highest quartile of EPS members at
MSP are topping 100 for highs, so there`s some high end heat
potential we`ll have to be on the lookout for as that portion of the
forecast draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR for most of the period with increasing CIG coverage and
lowering towards the tail end, as a decaying line of showers and
storms moves into the region from the northwest tonight. The
best chance for -TSRA is at AXN, with a prob30 also for STC but
most guidance failing to see this line all the way through to
MSP and into RNH/EAU. Winds are light and variable to start,
leading to some patchy BR in EAU, favoring 160-180 with speeds
generally under 7kts. MVFR becomes more likely after the end of
the current period and into the next.

KMSP...Kept the TAF dry for now, although there is a chance that
the decaying line of showers and storms makes it to the
terminal. This will remain uncertain until the storms actually
form and we can begin to track them.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5kts.
WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...TDH