710
FXUS63 KMPX 141500 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
900 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures today with highs in the 60s
  with some 70s possible.

- A cold front will pass through tonight into Saturday bringing
  a chance of light rain and more seasonable temperatures for
  next week.

- No strong signal for precipitation, but chances return next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Temperatures have begun to rocket up this morning with some
locations such as Blaine increasing 6 degrees in the last hour and
Faribault 11 degrees since sunrise. As the inversion mixes out,
we`ll continue warming several degrees an hour through the
morning. Progged 925 mb temps ranging from 13-15C in western WI
to +17 or +18C in southwestern MN suggest we will reach the
upper 60s in WI to the mid 70s in southwestern MN. Increased
highs to the NBM 95th percentile which represents the 925 mb
dry adiabatic mixing technique check well, which would tie a
record of 71 at MSP. It should be noted recent days have met
or exceeded the 95th percentile in some areas, so guidance have
had a definitive cool bias.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Temperatures will peak today as 850 mb temperatures will be up
around 18 degrees Celsius. This warm air is advecting in from
the west and combined with clear to mostly clear skies ahead of
the frontal passage temperatures will rise into the 60s to even
lower 70s. The best chance for some lower 70s will be across
parts of western and southern Minnesota where the thermal ridge
will be at its peak. These temperatures do not look likely to
break records, but are still 20 to 25 degrees F warmer than
normal. For example the record at MSP Airport today is 71, so
possible but not likely as this is on the extreme high end of
guidance. This warmth does not last long as a cold front will
move through tonight into Saturday. The coldest air looks likely
to remain over the Great Lakes, so a return to more seasonable
temperatures seems most likely. This front should provide plenty
of lift, so the question then moves on to what is the saturation
of the atmosphere. Looking at forecast soundings as frontal
passage occurs moisture looks to be the limiting factor.
Saturation does look to increase as temperatures fall and clouds
are likely, but the question moves to the depth of the
saturation. Ensemble model guidance keeps PoP chances low due to
this lack of depth in saturation through the vertical profile.
The best chances among ensemble membership look to be across
central Minnesota into western Wisconsin tonight into early
Saturday morning where more of the atmosphere can saturate.
Little QPF expected due to the aforementioned lack of moisture.
Any precipitation that does fall would be rain based on the
vertical thermal profile.

Behind Saturday`s cold front we look to be in more of a split
flow pattern, as the last discussion mentioned. This keeps the
best chances for precipitation to our north and south. However
one shortwave does get close late Monday into Tuesday and
another larger wave near the end of next week. The early week
chance at the moment looks to keep the best chances to our
south. The late next week system looks like it could be a larger
system, but as is common this time of year the final track of
the surface low will be key in determining if we see any
impacts. At the moment global deterministic models keep the
track well to our south. So in summary a few chances for
precipitation, but no strong chances. This split flow also keeps
us generally between the warmer and colder airmasses. So the
temperature forecast looks to trend toward seasonable with
highs around 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR through the period with increasing high clouds this
afternoon & tonight. There is a chance for an hour or two of
light rain early Saturday morning, but no restrictions to
visibility or ceilings are expected. Southeast winds to start
the period become more southerly through the morning with gusts
up to 20 mph at times during the afternoon. Speeds diminish
after sunset with winds veering to northwesterly overnight.

KMSP...An hour or two of very light rain is possible early
Saturday morning, mainly between 5-8 AM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR, MVFR/-RASN possible late. Wind NE 5-15 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Borghoff
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA