252
FXUS63 KMPX 061849
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
149 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze concerns continue tonight

- Gradual warm up over the next few days. Cold front to bring
  isolated showers on Saturday.

- Increasing confidence for normal to above normal temperatures
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A rather quiet stretch of weather is on tap over next 7 days
across the Upper Midwest. Overcast skies linger across much of
the region this afternoon. A few peaks of sunshine may make it
through time to time but that`s it. I have lowered today`s
temperatures in response to the increase in cloud cover. Highs
top out in the mid 40s to 50 vs the lower 50s the previous
update had. Otherwise, not much has changed. Attention turns to
the frost/freeze headlines for tonight/Thursday morning. There
are two main concerns that should limit widespread frost and
freezing temperatures overnight. Cloud cover will prevent
temperatures from bottoming out despite the light and variable
wind profile. Additionally, frost formation has struggled the
past several nights - this is due to the dry air mass that`s
been stuck over the region for the last week or so. Dew point
temperatures tonight are forecast in the low to mid 20s while
air temperatures are in the low to mid 30s. That`s a pretty
significant dew point depression when you consider colder
temperatures will be limited tonight by overcast skies. We did
issue a small Frost Advisory over west- central Wisconsin to
match up with our neighbors - they will have slightly colder
temperatures that could see slightly better frost formation
conditions or temperatures briefly dipping below 32f. So what
does that mean for everyone else? If you brought in plants or
covered them yesterday, I would do it again for the peace of
mind. It`s still quite cold for early May and the trade off is a
few minutes to cover them up. Worth it for a plant you don`t
want to lose!

The remainder of the forecast period will gradually warm with no
meaningful signal of widespread precipitation. The lack of rain will
likely begin to show up on future drought monitors, but we`re "okay"
for now. We could see some patchy showers Saturday, primarily across
western Wisconsin, but they`re not going to cause anyone to cancel
their outdoor plans. Another chance of rain arrives next Tuesday and
is the best chance for measurable precipitation event. Friday looks
particularly nice with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s with
mostly sunny skies. The weekend will be passable with mostly cloud
conditions on Saturday and highs in the mid/upper 60s. Sunday will
be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Next week
will feel more like Spring with temperatures near to slightly above
normal. Looking ahead toward Mid-May and the second half of the
month - there is a signal that the high latitude blocking pattern
may begin to break down towards mid month. This should allow for the
persistent eastern CONUS trough to also break down and could allow
for the return of warmer, more active weather in the second half of
May.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Our midday cloud deck continues to overspread the region with
cigs generally around 4-6kft. They will continue to trend more
BKN than OVC throughout the day, especially after sunset. The
majority of clearing may not occur until around sunrise tomorrow
morning, at which point more additional diurnal cumulus is
expected to develop. Sites in western WI and eastern MN will be
in the area where this cu field develops, while western MN will
have a better chance for clearer skies.

Northwest winds will occasional gusts to 20kts continue this
afternoon, before becoming light and variable overnight. As
winds increase tomorrow morning, there may be a couple hours of
southwesterly winds, then westerly winds prevail around 5 to
10 kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind W to NW 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BED