959
FXUS63 KMPX 061937
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
237 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Air Quality Alert for much of Minnesota tonight through Sunday
  evening.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday
  through Monday.

- Tropical airmass arrives by the middle of next week with
  highs in the 90s expected. Heat indices may exceed 100
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Aside from a few areas of fair weather cu, today is turning out to
be a nice one. Current temperatures range in the low to mid 80s with
light winds thanks to surface high pressure overhead. One thing to
be aware of though (especially those who are sensitive to air
quality), the MN Pollution Control Agency has issued an Air Quality
Alert for ground-level ozone concentration across much of Minnesota
today through Sunday evening. This alert is not wildfire driven and
is focused on the values of ground-level ozone. Ozone is colorless
and odorless and results from incoming solar radiation. Therefore
for sensitive groups, consider moving outdoor plans indoors
until this evening or Sunday morning.

Sunday unfortunately will not feature the plentiful sunshine we are
enjoying today. We continue to monitor the progression of two
regimes that are expected to converge over the northern plains late
Sunday into Monday. The first is an upper-level wave over the
southern plains, while the second is an upper-level trough moving
onshore across the Pacific Northwest. The southern plains system
heads north-northeast through the course of tonight. Cloud cover is
expected to increase across southern MN late tonight as this system
nears. Forcing as well as increased moisture arrives mid-morning and
will create for showers and some rumbles of thunder along the I-90
corridor. By midday, the potential for precip expands northward
towards the I-94 corridor. As of now, the strongest likelihood
for rainfall is across southern MN. It isn`t until the PAC
Northwest trough arrives overnight Sunday into Monday that will
produce greater coverage for rain and a few storms. So if you
live north of a line from Mankato over to Red Wing, daytime
Sunday activities should remain relatively dry but it may not
hurt to have an umbrella handy to help scare any rain away.
Severe storms are not expected with this episode of rain however
given increased southerly flow and PWATs nearing 2 inches,
heavy downpours could be common. Latest HREF PMMs range QPF from
a quarter to a half-inch with a few localized areas seeing
higher amounts as rain ends Monday evening.

Tuesday continues to a feature a lull in activity as high pressure
builds overhead for the daytime hours. "Soupier" conditions will be
felt as much warmer h850 temps advect in from the SW. Dew points
forecasted to be in the upper 60s combined with temps near 90
degrees. Another round of precip is expected to late Tuesday into
early Wednesday. This precip will only help exacerbate surface
conditions to where we will likely see our first heat headlines of
the season. Wednesday`s heat indices are forecasted to be near
100 degrees. Aside from the heat, our next shot at severe
weather looks to be late Wednesday. The forecast remains messy
as an upper-level trough moves across the northern CONUS and
could produce severe thunderstorms. Currently, the SPC Day 5
features a 15% convective outlook for the Dakotas, MN, and WI.
The element that is going to be detrimental, is if the precip
late Tuesday into early Wednesday will greatly suppress chances
for severe weather Wednesday night. Stay tuned. As for the rest
of the week, temperatures return to near normal in the lower
80s to upper 70s as dew points return to the mid- 50s. Aside
from a few diurnal chances of summer rain, the latter half of
the week appears quieter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

High pressure overhead today will allow for light and variable
winds and mainly clear skies. Some fair weather Cu are popping
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with some high
clouds brushing southern Minnesota. Winds will be generally out
of the east at 5kts or less before becoming more southeasterly
and increasing to 10kts or less overnight as the high shifts
east. Tomorrow will start out clear before mid and high clouds
move in late in the period. Southeast winds continue to increase
through late morning.

KMSP...Heading into tomorrow afternoon, TSRA chances increase.
Timing/coverage confidence is too low to include mention in this
TAF set, but the window for precip should fall between 19-01z.
Gusts of around 20kts are also expected during the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR w/TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dye