557
FXUS63 KMPX 252351
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
651 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible late afternoon into this
  evening mainly near and east of I-35, north and east of the TC
  metro.

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the
  strongest storms capable of large hail or damaging wind gusts.

- Rain-free weather is expected late tonight through Friday,
  then chances for rain and thunderstorms return Friday night
  through the weekend.

- Temperatures to generally remain seasonable through the end of
  the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A fairly potent cold front, sagging south from a low pressure
center straddling the southern Manitoba/Ontario border,
continues to press eastward across MN. Dewpoints drop off
appreciably going into the Dakotas while the wind shift is
slowly taking place over far western MN this afternoon. However,
in advance of this cold front, a narrow moist/warm sector is
evident with dewpoints into the upper 60s and temperatures into
the low-mid 80s. With the front moving across, this is leading
colder air aloft into the region despite the low level WAA,
making for steeper lapse rates along with MLCAPE values
approaching 2000 J/kg. In addition, a modest mid-level shortwave
aloft along with mid-upper level jetting will contribute to
stronger t-storm development late this afternoon into this
evening. However, the narrow warm sector along with meager
support aloft will hinder widespread thunderstorm development,
which is generally confirmed by recent CAM runs which do not
indicate much in the way of coverage. Thus, thunderstorm
development looks to commence late this afternoon just
north/east of the TC Metro and press eastward into the evening
hours, matching the progression of the cold front through the
eastern parts of the WFO MPX coverage area. Cloud cover was a
limiting factor in western WI through this morning, but some
recovery has allow instability to grow just enough to make
western WI the focus for any strong-severe thunderstorms, which
aligns with the today`s SWODY1 updates. The main hazard still
looks to be large hail but damaging straight-line winds and a
tornado cannot be ruled out. Any and all storms look to push out
of our coverage area by midnight, with western Canadian high
pressure filling in behind the front.

Rain-free conditions with lower dewpoints are expected for
Wednesday through Friday as the center of the broad high
pressure airmass lumbers its way eastward across the Upper
Midwest. Some cloud cover may linger on Wednesday but a
significant dry layer looks to prevent any potential showers
from being realized at the surface. Come Friday night into
Saturday, a more active weather pattern looks to develop as a
series of weak low pressure centers over the Rockies become more
organized, aided by an enhanced Northern jet stream along with
multiple incoming shortwave disturbances. Early Saturday through
late Sunday looks to feature multiple rounds of rainfall,
potentially with scattered thunderstorms, as a warm front takes
its time moving across the region while deeper swaths of
moisture are advected into the region. Rainfall chances, while
diminishing, then remain in the forecast into early next week.

Temperatures will remain generally similar day-to-day throughout
this forecast period, which is also fairly close to normal
values. Highs throughout the next 7 days will remain in the low-
mid 80s, but it is the lows that will have more variability due
to frontal passages and cloud cover hindering radiational
cooling (or lack thereof enhancing radiational cooling).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Thunderstorm development has been most robust up around Duluth,
with that activity heading across northwest WI, remaining north
of all MPX terminals. Overnight, cool temperatures will move in
aloft, which will leave us susceptible to having a pretty
aggressive cu field develop as mixing deepens Wednesday morning.
RAP soundings support a BKN cu field developing in the morning,
which could initially come in MVFR levels before lifting to
closer to 4k feet in the afternoon. To go with the diurnal cu-
field, NW winds will gust up to between 20 and 25 kts. With that
cu field, an isolated shower will be possible in western WI, but
chances are no high enough to warrant the addition of any precip
in the WI TAF at this time.

KMSP...The cold front is moving across the western metro now and
cu-field on satellite along it would say MSP is in the clear
from having any storms this evening. RAP soundings support
potential MVFR cigs Wednesday between 14z and 18z as the diurnal
cu field develops.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc TSRA late night. Wind SW 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind S 10-15G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...MPG