140
FXUS63 KMPX 292344
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid Sunday and Monday with chances for scattered
  showers and thunderstorms.

- Above average temperatures stick around as we start September
  with multiple shower chances throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Rain cleared the CWA just before noon today with breezy southerly
and southeasterly winds gusting 25 to 30 MPH. Most places ended up
with 0.20 to 0.40" with some embedded higher totals greater than a
half inch. There are some breaks in the clouds, but overall
expecting mostly cloudy skies which will help keep our temperatures
in check. We won`t be as lucky tomorrow with continued southerly
flow aloft sending us ample warm, moist air. Apparent Ts may reach
the mid to upper 90s across southern and western Minnesota with
upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. Precip chances have decreased for
much of the daytime hours tomorrow. A subtle wave overnight may lead
to some isolated showers and a rumble of thunder early Sunday for
far western Minnesota. The better chance for showers and storms will
arrive after sunset across western and central Minnesota into
western Wisconsin as a low moves out of the Dakotas. This system
will bring a cold front through the region, but the most it will do
in terms of sensible weather impacts is lower Tds for Tuesday. This
FROPA Monday afternoon will once again lead to some isolated showers
along the boundary, mainly in western Wisconsin.

PoPs increase Tuesday evening with another shortwave moving out of
the Dakotas. This will likely be another widespread light rainfall
event like we saw early this morning with QPF amounts around 0.20"
with localized higher totals. With the upper ridge shifting into the
eastern CONUS, we will find ourselves with nearly daily chances of
showers with embedded waves parading through. Temperatures will
continue to be above normal in the low to mid 80s through the end of
the period with PWATs running some 150 percent of normal. Those who
were hoping September would bring Fall-like weather will have to
wait.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Brief instances of
CIGs reaching MVFR category through the evening and overnight as
BKN to OVC skies continue. Winds generally light out of the east
at 5-10 knots, becoming light around 5 knots during the
overnight. Areas of fog could develop during the early morning
hours resulting in VIS reductions for AXN, STC, RNH, and EAU.
Confidence is low so no mention in TAF. PROB30 for -SHRA has be
added for MSP during the morning hours, -SHRA may result in
brief MVFR CIGs. Winds remain E/SE through the day AOB 10 knots.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected through the period. Brief
instances of CIGs reaching MVFR category through the evening and
overnight/morning timeframe. PROB30 has been added for possible
SHRA during the morning hours. -SHRA impacting terminal may
result in brief MVFR CIGs and minor reduction to VIS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind S becoming NW 5-10 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...LPR