754
FXUS63 KMPX 080531
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Air Quality Alert for much of Minnesota until this evening.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms this evening into
  Monday.

- Tropical-like airmass settles in Monday. This will lead to
  the potential for several rounds of thunderstorms through mid-
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Current water vapor imagery showing the core of an upper-level low
centered across E`rn Nebraska this afternoon. Ahead of this feature,
a surface warm front that extends from Madison over to Rochester has
produced dew points near 70 degrees with air temperatures upper 80s.
Warm-advective showers and thunderstorms have developed along this
boundary in southern MN and are expected to continue north-
northwestward through this evening. Today`s environment continues to
advertise for sub-severe weather however, latest SPC
mesoanalysis does feature a MUCAPE gradient over 2500 J/kg
where the line of storms resides. So there is enough instability
to get storms going along this front but luckily wind-shear
lacks to maintain any rotating updrafts for producing large
hail. Additionally, storms will be pulse-like and have frequent
periods of intensification and weakening. The main hazard with
these storms will be heavy rainfall. Southerly flow continues to
pump in ample moisture to the northern plains. PWAT values
exceeding 1.75" will support periods of torrential rainfall that
could lead to localized areas seeing minor nuisance flooding,
especially in low lying areas. This period of rainfall is expect
to linger overnight into Monday with western MN clearing out by
early morning, eastern MN by mid-morning, and then western WI
by late afternoon. Storm total rainfall continues to range
mainly between 0.25 to 0.75" although localized higher amounts
are likely for those who see training heavy rain.

Tuesday, high pressure briefly returns with southerly flow continues
to support a warm moist airmass in to the northern plains. Forecast
high temperatures will range in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
dew points in the upper 60s. This will result in heat indices
to reach the mid to upper 90s which borderlines advisory
criteria. One thing to note is that the NBM has been
aggressively warm for the past few days. Therefore have blended
in HiRes guidance to trend back heat indices that were
previously exceeding 100 degrees. By Tuesday night, another
chance of round of showers and thunderstorms proceeds an upper-
trough that will move through the northern plains on Wednesday.
Forecast QPF shifts its maxima this time mainly for northwestern
MN into North Dakota however portions of central and southern
MN could see another couple tenths of an inch of rainfall.

Now for Wednesday, there has been plenty of chatter about the
increasing risk of severe thunderstorms late Wednesday into
Thursday. Warm and humid conditions are expected once again with
temperatures in the lower 90s and dew points in the mid 60s to mid
70s. The aforementioned upper-level trough continues eastward and
does take a broad negatively-tilted shape. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms across with higher confidence of supercells and
bowing segments to occur across western MN and the Dakotas.
However, there are a couple of things we do have to keep an eye
on. One, is if the atmosphere recover from Tuesday night
convection, and confidence in the forecast guidance. Two, is
noting that the GFS, ECMWF, and CAN have all shifted the triple
point farther east thus producing the strongest convection
mainly in Wisconsin. Given that, still something worth
monitoring early this week.


The rest of the forecast period features minor chances for rain and
thunderstorms. Temperatures return to near-normal values with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 50s. Humidity will
also retreat as dew points decrease back into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Scattered -SHRA continues across portions of western and south-
central MN and western WI. This activity will push north
overnight, with redevelopment expected over WI after sunrise
Monday and likely lasting well into Monday afternoon. Heaviest
rainfall is expected at EAU where visibilities will drop to 5sm.
Over western MN (AXN), 2 rounds of -TSRA are possible this
morning and again this afternoon. However, lacking confidence to
anything more than PROB30s for each. Cigs will fall to MVFR/IFR
early this morning and likely remain there into Monday afternoon
before slow improvement to VFR occurs. EAU is the only terminal
that should remain IFR the rest of the period due to high low-
level moisture. Southeasterly winds near 10 knots tonight will
gradually slow to near or under 5 knots Monday evening.

KMSP...-SHRA expected overnight but impacts look minimal. Cigs
will fall to MVFR near 08z and then IFR by 11z. Expect clouds to
slowly break apart and rise to VFR towards mid-Monday
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR, bcmg MVFR w/TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...CTG