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FXUS63 KMPX 021158
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
558 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread soaking rain today trough Wednesday. Amounts of
  0.75-2" expected, approaching 3" across central Minnesota.

- Highs in the 60s today and Tuesday will fall back into the
  40s and 50s the rest of the week.

- Additional minor rain chances return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The best way to explain water vapor and radar imagery this morning
is that there is a wall of water quickly moving our way across the
Plains. The surface low at 2am was analyzed over northeast Colorado
and by this evening is forecast to be up around Grand Rapids in
northern MN. This continues the trend of the last couple of days of
this initial phase of the storm nudging to the northwest some. Just
north of the low track will be where the heaviest rain falls and the
model consensus on where the heaviest rain falls today (1.5 to 2.5
inches) is from the ND/SD/MN border, northeast into the Arrowhead.
The MPX area will see a mid level dry slot move in late this
afternoon, with a lull in precipitation expected tonight as we wait
on phase 2 of this system.

Phase 2 is the slow, lumbering low phase of this system. As the long
wave trough to our west moves over MN, it will close off into an h5
low that will spin across MN/WI Tuesday and Wednesday. As this
happens, the surface low will stall out, with a new low developing
along its cold front over southern MN. Model spread for phase 1
isn`t too bad, but things get dispersive for where this second low
develops and then with how long it takes for it to exit stage right.
Though differences in the placement of the low exist, where there is
agreement in the models is that a broad and persistent deformation
band will wrap around the northwest side of the low. This
deformation band will likely result in an additional 1-2" of rain on
top of what we see on Monday. Right now, the favored axis for the
highest rain amounts Tuesday and Wednesday is from roughly Redwood
Falls to Duluth, though this may move around a bit in the next 24
hours. What is impressive are the potential rainfall amounts this
week where the heaviest rain axes from these two phases of the
system happen to line up. Right now, this looks to be up near the
headwaters of the MS River, where amounts of 3-5 inches could be
seen. This would be at and even exceeding 3 times the normal liquid
precipitation seen for the entire month of November in just 3 days.
All in all, this looks to be an incredibly beneficial rainfall.
With vegetation now mostly dormant and the ground not frozen, this
rainfall will go to recharging soil moisture and helping stream
flows and lake levels recover. If the higher end amounts we`re
seeing do hit the headwaters region, this may be the event that can
finally break the cycle of droughts that part of the state has been
stuck in since 2021.

For Thursday and Friday, we will finally see precipitation push off
to the east, with high pressure drying us out on Friday. As we have
seen all fall, the "cold" airmass coming in with the high on Friday
will mean we see highs back down around normal.

For the weekend, the GFS has joined the ECMWF in depicting a strong
shortwave dropping southeast out of Canada, with a clipperesque
system brining another chance of some light rain. Sadly, with its
retirement planned for November 3rd, we won`t get to see how the NAM
will handle this system!

Beyond next weekend it`s back to ridging and unseasonable warmth,
with the storm track shifting to our south as this El Nino continues
to flex its muscles. The 8-14 outlook from the CPC shows above
normal temperatures being likely with any hints of winter in the
models continuing to remain nonexistent.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rain will continue to move into western WI through the rest of
the morning, where confidence in the rain starts to drop is
starting this afternoon in southwest MN as a dryslot spreads
across the area. There will be good 5-8 hours of near
continuous rain, followed by more intermittent light
rain/drizzle late this afternoon through the overnight. For
these TAFs, held rain to mainly this incoming round, with mostly
precip free TAFs.

Ceilings... Cigs range from VLIFR (western MN) to high end MVFR
(EAU). Eventually, all sites will drop to IFR/LIFR conditions
today and likely remain there through the night. Where we could
see conditions lift above IFR would be tonight at RWF/MKT
depending on cigs trend in the dryslot, though for now kept IFR
cigs in place.

Winds... Gusty southeast winds are still expected today. Because
of the gusty surface winds, we kept any wind shear out, despite
2k foot winds increasing to around 45 kts. Low confidence on the
wind forecast tonight as those will depend how quickly a cold
front pushes across southern MN. For now, stuck with NBM winds,
which is less aggressive than the LAV with pushing the front
east tonight.

KMSP...Steady rain will reach MSP by 13z, with nearly continuous
rain expected until about 20z. After that, coverage of activity
becomes more uncertain. The steady rain will bring IFR cigs and
those are expected to remain in place the rest of the period,
though there is some potential they could go above IFR after
midnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...-RA/MVFR, chc IFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR, chance AM -SHRA/IFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...MPG