167
FXUS63 KMPX 301916
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A small chance for a shower in southwestern MN this afternoon and
evening, otherwise dry through the next few days with our next
shower chances arriving Monday.

- Patchy dense fog possible again tonight, although more sparse than
this morning due to lower dew points.

- A larger system approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday,
  bringing widespread showers and cooling temperatures down
  behind it for late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The stubborn stratus deck which has lingered into the early
afternoon has finally retreated to only southwestern Minnesota, with
some fair weather cumulus already developing in its place in western
WI. There is still a chance for some sprinkles or light showers
underneath the stratus deck this afternoon and evening, however the
vast majority of locations will remain dry. Dew points dropping into
the mid 50s overnight will allow for slightly cooler low
temperatures as we once again will see light winds and radiation fog
develop after midnight. Given the slightly lower dew points and a
bit of lingering cloud cover, it may be a bit more difficult to
produce as much fog as this morning, so overall while dense spots
are still likely, the areal extent should be much patchier than this
morning.

Surface high pressure continues to linger over the Great Lakes with
limited upper level flow to dislodge it as the northern stream jet
remains well to the north leaving us with split flow. The weak low
pressure system situated south of the area looks to continue to
produce scattered showers and storms along the northwestern
periphery, favoring the Sioux Falls WFO area rather than reaching
us. This will change Tuesday into WEdnesday as a strengthening
trough will dive southwards from the northern stream jet with a
surface low developing by midday Tuesday, eventually dragging a cold
front across the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
Widespread showers are likely along the front, however the lower dew
points leading up the system and lack of a warm sector due to the
warm front being farther to the north will limit the overall QPF to
generally around 0.25 to 0.5 inches. The main thing this front will
do besides the showers will be to cool temperatures down
significantly throughout multiple levels of the atmosphere, due to
the system originating from central to northern Canada. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday Will drop to below 60
throughout the area Wednesday into Thursday as 850mb temps compared
to climatology drop to -5 to -10C. Temperatures rebound a bit
towards next weekend into the mid 60s, but we will remain a bit
cooler than normal for the first week of September by the end of the
period. Longer range ensemble guidance shows sporadic precipitation
chances beyond the 7 day forecast with no real consensus, thus we
are probably looking at a relatively dry and cool period at least
through the middle of the month. However, being September all it
would take is a shift from the northern to southern stream jet being
the dominant upper level pattern to instantly flip back to warm and
wet, so considering this cooler stretch the true start to Autumn
would be premature.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

IFR ceilings have mostly scattered out across eastern Minnesota
& western Wisconsin but another hour or two of low ceilings is
expected across western & south-central Minnesota, mainly
impacting RWF & MKT. VFR conditions are expected once the
clouds clear out into tonight with only FEW/SCT cumulus
developing this afternoon. Patchy mist looks likely overnight
given the mostly clear skies, but confidence in visibility
restrictions is too low to mention at this point outside of
RNH/EAU. EAU has the highest potential for fog early tomorrow
morning as well, when visibility could drop below 1SM.

KMSP...VFR through tonight. Areas of mist and fog could
develop in the river valleys early tomorrow morning but is not
expected to reduce visibility at the terminal.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind S 5kts.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA/-TSRA likely. Wind SW 5 kt becoming W
10-20 kts during the afternoon.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...ETA