220
FXUS63 KMPX 031721
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon & evening.

- Heat & humidity return for Friday into the weekend. Heat Index
  values around 100 degrees likely.

- Frequent chances for scattered showers & thunderstorms into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Rain and thunder have begun to move in across the Minnesota/Iowa
border early this morning. Latest SPC mesoanalysis showing low-
level warm advection and frontogenesis occurring right where
convection is currently occurring. So far, these storms have
remained sub-severe with only a few personal weather stations
recording some perhaps wind gusts up near 40mph. This storms are
expected to continue on a ENE`ly track through much the first
half of today as warm advection continues northward.

Today`s forecast remains muddy. Muddy as in regards to the
question of how long this morning "clutter" sticks around. Its
been advertised that a second round of thunderstorms is possible
this afternoon. The driver of that second round of convection
would be a subtle wave that is on the far reaches of an upper-
level troughing pattern over the PacNorthwest. This wave feature
will then ride the apex of this ridge then then be pulled into
another broad troughing pattern currently situated over southern
Hudson Bay. Upper- forcing will increase across eastern North
Dakota early this afternoon. By then, our AM convection should
have cleared east and will allow for redevelopment to occur
somewhere over northwestern MN. From here, this is where hi-
res guidance solutions diverge. HREF/REFS as an example favor a
bowing MCS to sweep southeast. Where as the HRRR, does also
create a convective complex but does not look as intense and
keeps the rain mainly in northern Minnesota. In order for the
sweeping MCS scenario to come to fruition, our environment would
require to recover quickly and warm up. Also the line would
need to develop and then follow the warm/instability gradient
southward. This scenario is what has been driving the SPC`s
severe weather outlook which has been downgraded from a slight
risk to marginal risk for much of central and southern
Minnesota.

As we enter Friday into the Labor Day weekend, we will get the
hot- and- humid forecast on a stick. Once today`s precip episode
passes, ridging builds over the next few days and reaches
beyond the Canadian border. This will allow for ample moisture
and warm air to sit right over MN/WI for the next few days. As
of now, Friday appears to be the hottest day, as heat indices
will climb into the mid to upper 90s as far north as the I-94
corridor. For those within the Twin Cities metro area, it is
possible that a Heat Advisory may be needed for Friday
afternoon. As for precip, chances for rain and storms will exist
each day thanks to additional waves moving along the ridge in
quasi-zonal flow. Still to far out to determine impacts but at
least there is hope for some to get a little drought relief.
Temperatures will eventually come back to reality by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A relatively tricky period is ahead of us with a warm frontal
boundary draped west to east across the area resulting in
isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA, with activity expected to
weaken somewhat over the first few hours of the TAF. A brief
lull is then expected before a cluster/line of storms is
possible, favoring central MN and therefore having the best
chance of affecting AXN/STC after 02-03z. During periods of
-TSRA, MVFR/IFR is expected, with mainly VFR until then and
 between rounds, with visibility the primary category impact as
 cloud heights are generally 4kft or higher. Winds favor 130-160
 at 10kts or lower south of the warm front with gusts confined
 mainly to areas of TS.

KMSP...Elected to continue the TEMPO due to ongoing -TSRA
nearby, after deciding between TEMPO and VCTS. This activity
should only last for an hour or two before diminishing into the
afternoon. A prob30 group for another round of -TSRA is far less
certain, and even a prob30 may be too aggressive at this point
with most of the guidance favoring an area from roughly Moorhead
to Brainerd to northern WI for the second round of storms this
evening/tonight. We may end up removing it with the 21z AMD or
00z TAF depending on how things trend, with most of the guidance
so far today keeping things pretty far to the north of MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE 5kts.
SUN...Chc -TSRA, generally MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...Sct -TSRA, generally MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...TDH