955
FXUS63 KMPX 021039
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
539 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures to remain above normal into mid-June, including
  highs near 90 early next week.

- Widespread rainfall expected late Wednesday through late
  Thursday, with additional chances of rain through the weekend.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for
  Wednesday evening and Thursday afternoon-evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows an expansive area of
high pressure centered over Hudson Bay spreading southward over
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Out west, a surface low is
becoming more organized over far southern Saskatchewan province
along a cold frontal boundary extending NE into central Canada
and SW over the Northern-Central Rockies. Aloft, an upper high
is nearly atop the surface feature but a deeper H5 low sits over
southwestern Saskatchewan province, aiding in the development
of the surface low. Ridging continues to build just off the
SoCal coast.

Today will be the most tranquil of the next 7 days as the
ridging at the surface and aloft, although centered to the
east of the Upper Midwest, will be the dominant weather features
through tonight, keeping any systems to the west from making
any progress eastward. However, these high pressure features
will move south through tonight then slightly more eastward
Wednesday. While this ridging moves slowly away from the WFO MPX
coverage area, the southwest Canadian low pressure features at
the surface and aloft will slowly shift nearly due east across
the southern Canadian provinces, just north of the international
border. In conjunction with these low pressure features,
stronger mid-to-upper level jetting will develop which will not
only aid in advecting appreciably higher levels of moisture but
also simply divergence aloft by Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. Between the existing southern Canadian
surface low and an additional surface low developing over
western SD, the front linking the two will shift eastward across
the Dakotas Wednesday.

Height falls aloft with low level convergence along the front
will aid thunderstorm development and fairly widespread
rainfall over the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon which is then
expected to spread into MN/WI Wednesday night into Thursday.
While the bulk of the stronger storms for the Day 2 period will
occur over the Dakotas, including the potential there for
discrete supercell development, more linear blending of storms
will be more conducive of MCS development from the eastern
Dakotas into western MN Wednesday evening into Wednesday night
as stronger low-level nocturnal jetting develops. Moisture will
be dragged into the Upper Midwest by both the deep low pressure
system itself from the Pacific along with the S to SW flow aloft
opening a pathway from the Gulf. As such, PoPs Wednesday night
have increased to the 80s-90s percent.

Come Thursday, the surface low will be nudged to near KINL while
its associated low aloft moves into southern Manitoba
province, potentially far southwestern Ontario province.
Multiple shortwave buckles are forecast within the relative WSW-
WNW flow on the southern flank of the upper low. The trailing
cold front from the surface feature will sit over northern-
western MN into eastern SD, linking up with the low straggling
behind in eastern WY. Plenty of moisture still over the region
along with the low-level frontal convergence and continued
divergence aloft with the aforementioned strong jetting will
spell fairly widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms across
the Upper Midwest Thursday into Thursday night. There is also
the continued risk of a few strong-severe thunderstorms near and
in advance of the surface front across the region. Coverage
uncertainty will cap PoPs in the 70s-80s, highest in southern MN
into western WI. The front will have only very limited
southward movement Thursday night into Friday, thus PoPs are
still in the Likely category for Friday, particularly in the
afternoon-evening hours owing to diurnal effects with heightened
instability.

With the multiple periods of rainfall from late Wednesday
through Friday, the QPF totals continue to add up. Thus,
through those roughly 3 days of precipitation, widespread totals
of around an inch of rainfall are looking more viable, with
isolated pockets of heavier rain possible underneath heavier
thunderstorm rainfall intensities.

The front finally sags south of the coverage area over the
weekend, allowing for possibly some drying out time Saturday
into Sunday. However, the front looks to lift back north as a
warm front early next week. But, with that northward push of the
warm front will come deep ridging formerly residing over the SW
CONUS and now expected to push well north over the Rockies and
into the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Upper Midwest
Sunday through the first half of next week. The main impacts
here will be more of an increase in temperatures than any great
increase in precipitation chances. While temperatures have
already been running close to 10 degrees above normal from late
May into early June, the second week of June may well feature
temperatures closer to 15 degrees above normal. The only aspect
which may get in the way of that is the expected cloud/rain
complications from later this week into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with only
passing high cirrus today into this evening due to high
pressure settling over the Great Lakes as our dominant weather
feature. Light southeast winds at initialization, including near
calm in far eastern MN into western WI, will increase to near
10kts after sunrise and become breezy/gusty over western MN this
afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts.
FRI...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC