947
FXUS63 KMPX 141130
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
  late this afternoon and evening.

- Periods of showers and storms remain in the forecast through
  the period, especially during the Tuesday and Wednesday
  timeframe.

- Temperatures this weekend and into next will hover right
  around the seasonal average for the middle of August.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages. A somewhat active weather pattern with chances of showers
and storms across portions of the area today and Saturday, with
another shot of showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe.
Temperatures this weekend will hover right around the seasonal
average through the period.

.TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Generally zonal flow aloft regime continues to dominate as high
pressure aloft spans the Southeast to the Southern Plains. Upper
level system over the Canadian Prairies, along with its
associated surface low and warm front will advect better
moisture across the region with DP temps in to the 60s along and
south of the I-94 corridor through the day. Better moisture
will exist along the I-90 corridor of southern MN, DP with
values reaching 70 degrees. Most of pleasant will be pleasant
under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Isolated to scattered
showers and weak storms will be possible during the evening and
overnight timeframe across the forecast. The greatest threat to
activity will be across the southern half of MN, with 20-30%
PoPs across the Metro and Central MN, 30-40% PoPs across
Southern MN.

By Saturday, another piece of weak energy will move west to east
across Southern MN and Northern IA. This will promote another shot
of low-end chances of showers/storms across the area. On Sunday,
drier air quickly filters in with DP temps dropping into the 50s by
the afternoon and evening timeframe. High temperatures both Saturday
and Sunday top out around 80 degrees.

.NEXT WEEK...

On Monday, pleasant weather conditions will continue through most of
the day with high temperatures in the low 80s. By Monday night into
Tuesday, a west to east moving frontal boundary will move across the
region. This boundary and the associated moisture that comes with it
will increase shower/storm chances across the forecast area. Strong
to severe storms and heavy rain are not expected with this activity.
Thereafter, northwest flow aloft regime will take shape with periods
of shower/storm chances through the end of the work. As of now,
nothing looks impressive just some occasional showers and storms
each day. Temperatures through the end of next work week will
continue to hover around the seasonal average for the middle of
August.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Starting out the period fairly quiet with some mid level SCT
clouds stemming from ongoing TSRA in Iowa, however we expect to
see lowering CIGS and increasing chances for MVFR leading into
IFR with some -SHRA mixed in as well after 21z. Winds will
increase towards 18z with some gusts to 20-23kts through 00-02z,
as chances for -SHRA arrive from southwest to northeast. High
resolution guidance shows very isolated coverage of -SHRA with
some -TSRA possible, however confidence for now is a prob30 at
best. The better chances will be in southern MN, mainly for
RWF/MKT with lowering chances as it pushes northwards. Lowering
CIGS will result in at least MVFR if not IFR for all sites as
the lower levels saturate, some BR possible if -SHRA does not
occur. Brief LIFR is also possible, however this will mainly be
due to BR/FG alongside the low CIGS.

KMSP...Introduced some gusts to 22kts from 19-02z with lowering
CIGS towards 02z. The best chance for -SHRA is generally after
02z according to RAP/HRRR soundings as the lower levels
saturate, which will also allow for CIGS to lower even further
towards IFR after 08z. The duration of IFR and potential for
-SHRA is still uncertain, but the abundant low level saturated
 and very low ceilings should allow at least some -SHRA during
 the prob30 window starting at 02z and continuing until at least
 12-13z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.
MON...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...TDH