823
FXUS63 KMPX 311057
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
557 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry through Tuesday, then best chance of showers and thunderstorms
  comes late Tuesday night, followed by minor chances for
  additional rain through the rest of the week.

- Hot/humid conditions continue today, then warm and less humid
  conditions for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Current water vapor imagery this morning depicts a trough of low
pressure that extends from Manitoba over to Alberta and moving east.
Closer to the surface, an associated cold front extends from
Nebraska up through South Dakota before it becomes occluded
across North Dakota. Adjacent to this feature, a warm front
spans central MN into western WI. The cold front is expected to
sweep through the course of today. Currently, surface obs are
reporting warm and muggy conditions across much of MN/WI with
temps in the lower 70s and dew points sharing near the same
values. Patchy fog has developed across portions of western and
central MN this morning but will mix out shortly after sunrise.
Light southerly winds shift NW`ly as the front proceeds through
the area around midday. Unfortunately the forcing for this
system looks to be aloft versus at the surface. Additionally,
the track of the low is too displaced to our north. Therefore,
precip chances for today will be practically null. As for
temperatures, those in western MN, can expect highs in the lower
80s while western WI looks to linger in the upper 80s to lower
90s with heat index values in the 90s.

Now lets talk about dew points. Today`s 00z sounding at MPX recorded
a dew point of 73 degrees. Although this comes nowhere near our
record value (81.7 degrees), we are still well above climatology for
this time of year (i.e. a mean of 58 degrees for late August). So
aside from this surface front not providing much precip today, dew
points are expected to fall back closer to climatology levels for
most of the week. Despite temperatures remaining above average,
heat index values will only range 1-2 degrees warmer than our
surface temperatures.

Transitioning to precipitation, our next "best" shot at
beneficial rainfall looks to be Tuesday night. Latest QPF is
nothing to get too excited about however trends do look to range
between a tenth and two tenths of an inch across central MN to
whereas a few tenths of an inch in for portions of southern MN.
After that, zonal flow will keep us in a holding pattern for
nightly precip chances. Most areas can expected to stay dry from
these periods as coverage would be isolated to scattered at
best. Perhaps, stronger forcing could influence greater
rainfall. Simply put, we need the rain. Our month- to-date
rainfall deficit as of Aug 31st is -3.76". So far this year
(since Jan 1st), we are in a -6.83" deficit. Meaning, half of
our drought is just from this month alone. Unless any new precip
falls prior to midnight tonight, we`ll observe our 4th driest
August on record of 0.46".

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Radiational fog has developed this morning in the cooler area
across western and central Minnesota. Overall mainly MVFR, but
some lower IFR to LIFR fog has occurred and is impacting STC.
This fog will quickly lift after sunrise. After the fog lifts a
VFR day with light winds.

KMSP... Fog this morning should mainly stay in the valleys near
the airfield rather than impacting the terminal area itself.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE PM...VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind W 5 kts.
WED...Early AM TSRA/MVFR then VFR. Wind N to E 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...NDC