302
FXUS63 KMPX 171056
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
556 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms Friday afternoon, with a few severe storms
  possible.

- Warm & humid next week with multiple chances for
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Chilly start to the morning with temperatures falling into the
upper 40s & low 50s approaching record lows at numerous sites.
Patchy fog is also expected through sunrise where clouds clear
out overnight, mainly across central and western Minnesota. Once
the clouds clear out this morning it`ll be a top 10 weather day
with light northerly winds, very pleasant dew points for mid-
July, & high temperatures in the low 70s.

One forecast trend over the last 24 hours has been to introduce
an earlier chance for thunderstorms on Friday, with a few
high-resolution models depicting potentially severe
thunderstorms across central Minnesota by early afternoon. This
change comes as a result of a likely thunderstorm complex
developing over the western Canadian prairies/northern plains
tonight, & the remnant MCV providing enough lift to initiate
storms earlier in the day. Surface-based CAPE values look to be
very low, but shear values of 50 kts or more mean any storms
that manage to develop will become organized, even
supercellular, with large hail & sporadic damaging wind gusts
the primary threats. Another round of thunderstorms looks likely
Friday evening & night across southern Minnesota, as
strengthening warm & moist advection during the afternoon
develops a more classic environment for severe weather by the
evening. Shear will be weaker across southern Minnesota, but
still 30-40 kts, so these storms look to be more multicellular
with more of a potential damaging wind & heavy rain threat. We
will have to see how the earlier thunderstorm thereat unfolds
as well, as the models that develop the early afternoon storms,
have the boundary initiating the second round of evening storms
farther south across southeast South Dakota & northwest Iowa.
Temperatures Friday will again be on the cool side with highs in
the 70s, but noticeably muggier air will arrive during the
afternoon and evening.

High pressure over the weekend should keep things quiet & near-
normal for temperatures; but a warmer, muggier, & more active
pattern continues to look likely next week as anomalously
strong ridging develops over the central plains & mid-
Mississippi valley. We will likely miss out on the excessive
heat & humidity under the ridge, but ensemble guidance still has
temperature anomalies of 5+ degrees above normal along with
dewpoints well into the 70s. This will create a very unstable
atmosphere most afternoons & evenings, & our placement on the
northern periphery of the ridge places Minnesota & Wisconsin
under a classic "Ring of Fire" pattern where a few shortwaves &
organized thunderstorm complexes track along the periphery of
the ridge. Models are notoriously poor at resolving these subtle
features more than a day or two out, but at least a few chances
for severe weather & heavy rain look likely somewhere across
the Upper Midwest to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Once the little bit of ground fog burns off this morning, we
have great weather in store for this period, with scattered
cloud cover and light winds. By 12z Friday, AXN could see a
shra/tsra through, but right now, that activity is looking to
remain north of AXN until after 12z Friday.

KMSP...We tied a record low at MSP this morning. Friday
continues to trend stormier.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SSE 5-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc morning MVFR cigs. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG