531
FXUS63 KMPX 140814
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
314 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier but still cloudy for Saturday with highs only in the
  low to mid 60s for central Minnesota and Wisconsin.

- The active period of weather continues Saturday night with
  rain chances at least part of each day over the next week.

- Strong to severe storms possible across parts of western
  Minnesota this weekend and much of the southern half of
  Minnesota on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Stratiform rain continues to persist over eastern MN and northwest
WI early this morning. This precip is forming where WAA is maximized
at the nose of a 850 hPa LLJ. Comparing rain gauges to MRMS QPE over
the last 3 hours, MRMS seems to be running just a little bit hot
with rainfall estimates exceeding 2" within the maxima of the swath.
Meanwhile, gauges in the same areas range from near an inch to an
inch and a half. The rain will focus more over WI throughout this
morning as the LLJ pivots clockwise, before precip finally exits
east this afternoon as lift wanes. With the warm front remaining in
place and cloudy skies expected, have decreased today`s highs into
the low to mid 60s north of the front. South of the front in
southern MN, highs in the 70s are forecast where more sun is
likely. There is a chance for afternoon isolated showers and
storms in southern MN and northern IA as the atmosphere
destabilizes. But, rain looks more likely tonight as precip
that forms over SD in the evening travels east. This activity
will be slow to move, likely lasting through most of Sunday.
Some regeneration of showers and storms also looks possible in
its wake in south-central MN as the LLJ will once again provide
lift over the warm front. Mean QPF from the Grand Ensemble
Sunday into Sunday night suggests 0.5-0.75" of rain across
south-central MN. Stepping up to the 75th percentile yields
around an inch near Mankato and along I-90. Looking at the LPMM
from the 00Z HREF, individual swaths of QPF upwards of 2-3" are
resolved near I-90. Thus, while widespread, significant rainfall
doesn`t seem likely, localized areas in southern MN have a good
chance at seeing multiple inches through Sunday night,
especially if storms train. Sunday`s high temperatures should be
slightly warmer (mid 70s to lower 80s) as the warm front begins
to slowly lift north.

Highs on Monday should warm into the 80s as the warm front lifts
into northern MN. Some WAA showers and storms look possible across
western MN earlier in the day but, the main focus for potential
convection is Monday afternoon and evening. Guidance shows a mid-
level vorticity max traveling east through the Dakotas early Monday.
Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of this feature over
the eastern Dakotas early in the afternoon. The forecast environment
where storms form should be characterized by at least 2500 J/kg of
CAPE (upwards of 3500 J/kg possible in western MN per the GFS) and
35-45 knots of shear. Thus, supercell structures are possible
initially before storms move east into central MN where upscale
growth looks more likely as CAPE and shear slowly decrease.
Initially, all severe hazards will be possible with the supercells.
Some low-level veering in the winds does seem to yield a tornado
threat in western MN, though large hail and damaging winds look like
the most likely threats. As the storms grow upscale into an MCS and
travel southeast along the instability gradient, damaging winds will
become the main hazard. SPC has issued a Slight risk for nearly all
of the southern half of MN on Monday and we will continue to monitor
the forecast for additional clarity. Heavy rain will also be a good
possibility and some localized flooding may occur due to how much
rain we`ve received recently.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms looks most likely Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a broad, low-amplitude trough shifts through
the north-central CONUS. Greatest confidence in storm coverage is
currently across IA but models do show the activity stretching into
southern MN and western WI. Again, training of storms could make
localized, heavy rainfall a possibility with localized QPF amounts
potentially reaching 2". Though, WPC is most confident of excessive
rainfall over IA. A cold front should pass through late Wednesday,
giving us a temporary break from rain Thursday as northwesterly flow
evolves. However, rain chances return by Friday as a "ring of fire"
setup resumes with a jetstreak passing through the Northern Plains
within an upper-level ridge. Thus, the active pattern looks to
continue through the end of the period. Though, at least
temperatures look to remain summer-like.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Lingering showers have moved off to the north and east of any
TAF sites overnight. Low ceilings will be the story through the
rest of the day with primarily IFR ceilings expected, although
borderline MVFR ceilings could persist towards sunrise at
MSP/RNH/EAU. Patchy mist and drizzle will also linger through
the day but should not lead to much in the way of visibility
restrictions. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible late
this afternoon & evening across western Minnesota, but look to
be too sporadic to warrant any mentions at western MN sites.

KMSP...Ceilings are expected to drop to IFR by sunrise, and will
generally stay IFR through the morning. Gradual improvement to
MVFR is possible this afternoon, but ceilings drop again
tomorrow night after sunset. Dry conditions today with a chance
for scattered thunderstorms early Sunday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR late w/TSRA. Wind S at 10 kts.
MON...VFR/MVFR -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR/MVFR -TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...ETA