160
FXUS63 KMPX 280005
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong storms possible this afternoon, but confidence
  on coverage remains low.
- Continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions
  expected through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

It`s another warm and humid day across the region with some Cu
finally starting to pop in northern Wisconsin along a weak backdoor
cold front. This front will be the focus for isolated showers and
thunderstorms, much like yesterday. Guidance keeps development even
more scattered/isolated than yesterday, with central Wisconsin still
under a Marginal Risk. Further west, CAMs are suggesting a few
storms may initiate over the Dakotas and western Minnesota this
evening. Hail and damaging winds are the primary threats should
any storms get a little feisty. Outside of this, there`s very
little to talk about in the extended as our omega block remains
in place. Highs will continue to run some 10 to 15 degrees above
normal as we close out our last month of meteorological spring.


Dew points are a little high (low to mid 60s) and are expected
to come down into the 50s following the weak FROPA today. This
will lead to RH values falling to around 25-30% by
Friday/through the weekend. Things are plenty green now, but
with very little precip recently and virtually none in the
forecast, may need to monitor for fire weather concerns. Little
change in the forecast is expected heading into early next week.
Models hint that our omega block may begin to break down by the
middle of next week, but precip chances remain low at this
point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are located
near AXN and EAU at the current time. Its hard to pinpoint if these
areas of precip will reach either airfield, but did throw in short
tempos to account for the potential. Otherwise, high pressure
continues southward across northern WI which has already produced
increased wind gusts near 18kts. It is expected that those wind
gusts will make their way southwestward later this evening into late
tonight. Once the winds decrease by mid morning, winds shift SE`ly
between 5-10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dunleavy