627
FXUS63 KMPX 041129
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
529 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues into early Thursday as a slow moving system
  continues to pull away over the Great Lakes. Additional
  rainfall amounts of up to 1" are possible through tomorrow
  morning.

- A drier stretch of weather arrives for the weekend through
  much of the remainder of the forecast period.

- Temperatures come down to near normal values by the end of the
  week with overnight lows near or below freezing through the weekend
  before a slight warm up early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

There has been very little change in the weather over the past 24
hours as a slow moving surface low spins over western Wisconsin. In
fact, the PWAT value on the 03/00z, 03/12z, and 04/00z MPX sounding
has been holding steady at 1.34". This is well over 200% of normal
for this time of year. Both MSP and STC set new daily rainfall
records for November 3rd, with STC already exceeding the monthly
average precip in just the past two days (1.82" over the past two
days, monthly average is 1.37"). MSP isn`t far behind the average
November monthly precip of 1.61" with 1.31" just in these first few
days of the month. An additional half inch to an inch of rain is
expected area wide through tonight before this system finally moves
out to the east. There may be a brief lull in the rain for
eastern portions of the forecast area as the precip shield
pivots and eventually slides eastward again this evening. Some
scattered showers are still expected across far eastern
Minnesota and western Minnesota to start the day tomorrow, with
drier conditions settling by the afternoon. CAA on the backside
of the low and clearing skies overnight will finally allow
temperatures to move more than 10 degrees between the daily high
and low.

Friday into Saturday will feature a brief cool down with the Twin
Cities finally looking at its first 32 degree morning of the season
on Saturday. This would be top three latest freeze on record for
MSP, with November 18th 2016 likely safe in the top spot. Outside of
the metro, temperatures will fall into the 20s. Highs recover into
the upper 40s to low 50s with ample sunshine through Sunday. This
warm up continues into early next week with a weak, moisture starved
shortwave moving through late Monday. Dry conditions are expected to
continue through the remainder of the forecast period with high
pressure in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The near term forecast remains on track as a couple bands of
precip pivot around a surface low centered over northwestern
Wisconsin. KEAU has found itself in a dryslot of sorts with
VFR/MVFR cigs, but expecting IFR conditions to move in within a
couple of hours. Conditions will slowly begin to show signs of
improvement as we get into the overnight hours with precip
ending from west to east through the end of the period and MVFR
cigs taking hold.

KMSP...Guidance continues to highlight a window of LIFR
conditions this morning before we start to see improvement.
Winds have come around to the southwest with the center of the
low just to the northeast of the terminal. The will become
northwesterly again by this afternoon with rain ending
overnight. Some lingering drizzle/fog is possible into tomorrow
morning, but MVFR cigs/vis are expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR late. Wind N 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dye