613
FXUS63 KMPX 290802
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions expected through Labor Day, with a lower
  end chance for a few isolated storms today & Saturday.

- Best chance for organized precipitation comes with an early
  Fall cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Mild, near-normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday,
  then noticeably cooler behind the cold front for the latter
  half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Regional radar shows an area of showers slowly progressing SE
across the MN/WI border early this morning. These will
continue through western WI for the first part of the day.
Another period of afternoon storms looks likely along the
stalled boundary over west-central to southeastern MN. The
extent of coverage is lower confidence, as highlighted by the
variability in recent CAMs, but with ~500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and
dewpoints in the 60s folks should not be surprised if they hear
a rumble of thunder tomorrow. Nothing to ruin outdoor plans,
and likely nothing severe with shear values less than 25 kts.

This weekend will feature more of the same, with the Canadian
high lingering over the Great Lakes and a slow moving boundary
draped along its western periphery. At the same time, an
embedded mid level shortwave will situate over the northern
Plains. It continues to look like the deepest moisture and best
forcing will be closer to South Dakota and Iowa than Minnesota,
but folks may still see an isolated shower during
Saturday/Sunday afternoon (primarily in SW/S MN). Temperatures
through Labor day will be fairly consistent with highs in the
70s and lows in the 50s.

The next period to watch will be mid next week as a rather
impressive upper low attempts to dig down into the Upper
Midwest. Long range guidance brings an attendant cold front
through the region some time Tuesday into Wednesday. The Euro is
maybe the most bullish, with a broad area of 850mb temps below
0C on Thursday. While the highest confidence PoPs (40-50%) are
tied to the frontal passage, impacts from this system may linger
through the end of the week. Strong CAA on the backside of the
low should lead to gusty winds and below normal temperatures for
at least a couple days. I suspect we may see an increase in
Midwesterners wearing jackets come Thursday... though who am I
to question a Midwesterner`s unwavering will to hold off any
sign of an approaching winter.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Area of showers currently over central MN will slide southeast
through the night and into western WI through the rest of Friday
morning. Did go with prevailing -shra and RNH/EAU to account for
those showers, though based on upstream obs, expect conditions
to remain VFR. This afternoon, a pool of low 60s dewpoints will
shift slightly east, and like Thursday, will be where isolated
to scattered diurnal convection develops. This activity will
likely end up east of RWF and west of RNH, so we continued to
advertise Prob30 for TS at AXN/STC/MSP, but added MKT to the mix
as well. For fog tonight, I suppose it`s a good sign we aren`t
starting the 6z TAF period with dense fog already out there, but
a patchier fog will develop late tonight where we had the
dewpoints in the lower 60s Thursday afternoon, so MN west of
MSP and STC (where it will be too cloudy tonight).

KMSP...Confidence continues to increase that activity currently
over central MN will slide east of MSP this morning. We`ll see
where storms end up this afternoon, but they could end up west
of MSP as well, though they will be closer to the Twin Cities
Friday afternoon than they were Thursday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG