901
FXUS63 KMPX 192326
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening along a passing cold front.
  A few severe thunderstorms could produce large hail and gusty
  winds.

- Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather through the
  weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Early afternoon satellite imagery together
with surface obs showed mostly clear skies across the region. A
broad area of surface high pressure was centered over the Great
Lakes, leading to light surface winds that were starting to take on a
easterly direction. For the rest of today, expect dry conditions to
continue.

Overnight, the light winds will start to take on a southerly
direction as a upper level wave, with an accompanying weak surface
low and cold front, approach from the northwest. These southerly
winds should keep fog development at bay. After midnight, showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move from North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota. This should be north of a line from Alexandria
to Lake Mille Lacs.

By early Thursday afternoon, light southerly winds together with
partly sunny skies will lead to instability rebuilding across the
region ahead of the weak surface front. This will support scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A few storms could produce
gusty winds and large hail. SPC did upgrade the Marginal Risk to a
Slight Risk for some locations, but honestly the overall threat was
right on the marginal/slight line, so nothing really changed from a
meteorological standpoint. The lack of forcing, and relatively moist
mid level lapse rates are some limiting factors for widespread
thunderstorms. Storms will move southeast during the evening, and
should be out of the area by midnight.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...No major changes from the previous
forecast. The weak cold front will be through the area on Friday,
meaning dry conditions, but temperatures will remain seasonable with
highs in the low 80s.

Looking ahead, these temperatures will continue this weekend and
into next week. From a big picture perspective, northwest flow will
remain in place across the Upper Midwest. This is a dry pattern, as
we`re never able to tap into any gulf moisture. That said, a
few weak disturbances will be embedded in this northwest flow
and move across the region, bringing periodic small chances for
showers or thunderstorms. Most locations will stay dry. Monday
night into Tuesday will be the "best" chances for rain, but even
then the probability is only around 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Minimal weather concerns through tonight given dry surface high
in place right now. Patch of accas currently over NoDak will
shift east through the night and will become the impetus for
some elevated convection tonight over northern MN, likely
remaining north of MPX terminals. During Thursday afternoon, a
cold front will be moving across central/southern MN, but best
forcing for convection will be closer to a surface low up over
northern MN. Lots of spread in the CAMs with how storm coverage
will look in the MPX area, so at this time, have kept precip
mention out of TAFs, but we could see convection develop along
roughly a STC to RWF line between 21z and 23z Wednesday. Will
hold off on any TS mention in the afternoon until we see some
better agreement in the models on when/where storms will develop
late Thursday afternoon.

KMSP...We have two periods of possible showers this period.
16z-19z with an initial push of warm advection, though this
looks to be mainly an increase accas coverage. Period 2 would
be 23z to 3z with the FROPA, which is also the period with a TS
threat. Both have something in common, little model agreement on
whether or not MSP will be impacted by either one. Given this
uncertainty, continued to maintain a dry TAF for MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...MPG