043
FXUS63 KMPX 290643
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
143 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected for today through Friday night, with
  scattered showers returning on Saturday followed by more
  persistent and widespread rain Monday through Tuesday.

- Although cooler than Wednesday, temperatures will remain
  above normal through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The cold front and its associated upper level trough responsible
for the showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday is now well east of
the WFO MPX coverage area, with appreciable cold and dry air
advection on going behind it for the Upper Midwest. Temperatures
will bottom out in the lower 30s to lower 40s this morning
followed by highs only topping out in the upper 40s to upper
50s. While this is still above normal for late October, this is
obviously cooler than the temperatures experienced yesterday
despite plentiful sunshine for today. Similar temperatures are
expected on Friday with the same high pressure airmass shifting
east across the area through late day Friday. The western extent
of the departing cold front, located over the Central Plains,
will push northward a bit Friday night through Saturday,
bringing rain on Saturday for mainly southern MN but potentially
as far north as an Alexandria-Mora line. No thunderstorms are
expected, just scattered to numerous rain showers.

A better chance for rain still looks to come Monday into Tuesday
as a system develops over the lee of the Rockies into CO/KS.
However, with models still projecting a generally straight
easterly track, this will keep the center of the system south of
MN/WI but still thrust a large precipitation shield to its
north across our coverage area for Monday through Tuesday,
resulting in a persistent soaking rainfall out of high moisture
content and strong isentropic lift. In addition, guidance
continues to tamp down temperatures from getting too far over
normal. Highs Sunday-Monday will range in the upper 50s to mid
60s as this system moves across the region. Behind it, highs
will return to the 50s for the middle of next week along with
less active weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration for all
MN TAF sites. At the two WI TAF sites, decks between 800-1600ft
are still lingering behind the departing cold front. Thus, will
start out both sites with the cloud cover in place but with the
expectation that RNH will start out as VFR while EAU will have
MVFR ceilings for a few hours before joining the remaining TAF
sites as VFR. Skies will then clear out overnight and remain as
such through early Friday morning, although high clouds will
start to filter into western MN by then. Winds will come from
the W to NW 5-10kts through much of Thursday then go
light/variable Thursday night through Friday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...MVFR/-RA likely, mainly P.M. Wind SE 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC