967
FXUS63 KMPX 150505
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1105 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temps this afternoon, with cooling temperatures behind
a cold front overnight. Seasonal temperatures for the rest of the
week.

- Sprinkles/drizzle possible tonight and a chance for rain/snow
  Monday into Tuesday. Accumulations should remain light with
  low impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

We have officially broken the record high temperature at MSP as of
2pm at 72 compared to the previous daily record of 71, with St.
Cloud thus far with a high of 66 compared to a record of 68 and Eau
Claire also at 66 with a record of 70. There are some high clouds
drifting across southwestern MN towards the Twin Cities and thus our
rapid warming is likely over although we may still end up warming
another degree or so, so be sure to check the official climate
results that we run at around 4:30 & 6:30 pm today for the official
final temperature which you can find within the climate section on
our website. Given the temperature forecast for the next week and as
we continue to move closer to the winter months, this is likely to
be our last 70 degree day of the year, so find any excuse you can to
get outside and enjoy it before we have to wait several months for
this kind of warmth to return! The clouds will continue to increase
overnight ahead of a cold front that will be diving southeast across
the area from roughly midnight to 7am which will also drop
temperatures behind it, in addition to chances for isolated light
rain showers early tomorrow morning. Most of the area is expected to
remain dry with a relatively dry forecast sounding profile, however
a few areas may end up a few hundredths of an inch favoring central
Minnesota.

High pressure and subsidence is expected behind the cold front which
will lock in seasonal temperatures for the following few days
through this weekend as highs look to be in the mid 40s to low 50s
and lows drop below freezing everywhere by Sunday morning with the
following week showing plenty of 40s for highs and mid to upper 20s
for lows, which is almost exactly average for this time of year.
Believe it or not we are only about 5 weeks away from the Winter
Solstice marking the shortest day of the year, with our temperatures
likewise following the further decrease in daylight over the next 5
weeks. The high pressure will move off early next week as a series
of potential systems develops over the Rockies and moves towards the
central CONUS, with the upper level jet pattern looking to keep the
surface low pressure centers south of the region. The result for us
will be lower chances for precipitation on the northern side of
these potential systems, which could also introduce multiple
precipitation types depending on the time of day where shower
activity arrives. Overall, we do not anticipate significant impacts
throughout the week with only minor precipitation if it occurs,
however we could be looking at not only rain but also chances for
snow and even some mixed p-types as we move closer. The best overall
chances will be Monday followed by Thursday into Friday with midweek
showing another bout of surface high pressure keeping us dry. The
beyond 7 day forecast shows quite a bit of uncertainty, with the
various ensemble guidance showing significant spread in both timing
and intensity of precipitation heading towards the Thanksgiving
holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Main focus in the short term portion of the TAF period is a wind
shift that is occurring from northwest to southeast this
evening. Latest TAFs have tightened up the wind directional
changes associated with the frontal passage through daybreak.
Could have a few sprinkles out there, however coverage will be
much too low to include in the TAFs and any occurrence should be
brief with little reduction in visibility. A short period of
VFR cigs around ~10k feet will follow the wind shift.
Northwesterly winds will sustain between 10-15kts throughout
Saturday, with peak afternoon gusts near 25kts. Winds then
diminish by late afternoon/early evening, with mostly clear
skies to end the 6z period.

KMSP...Winds turn westerly early in the period as the front
moves through. Potential for any showers remains too low to
include in the TAF. Bumped up northwesterly wind gusts a few
knots tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon. VFR through the 6z period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc -RASN/MVFR late. Wind NE 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -RASN/MVFR early. Wind E 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Strus