997
FXUS63 KMPX 140733
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
233 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
  late this afternoon and evening.

- Periods of showers and storms remain in the forecast through
  the period, especially during the Tuesday and Wednesday
  timeframe.

- Temperatures this weekend and into next will hover right
  around the seasonal average for the middle of August.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages. A somewhat active weather pattern with chances of showers
and storms across portions of the area today and Saturday, with
another shot of showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe.
Temperatures this weekend will hover right around the seasonal
average through the period.

.TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Generally zonal flow aloft regime continues to dominate as high
pressure aloft spans the Southeast to the Southern Plains. Upper
level system over the Canadian Prairies, along with its
associated surface low and warm front will advect better
moisture across the region with DP temps in to the 60s along and
south of the I-94 corridor through the day. Better moisture
will exist along the I-90 corridor of southern MN, DP with
values reaching 70 degrees. Most of pleasant will be pleasant
under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Isolated to scattered
showers and weak storms will be possible during the evening and
overnight timeframe across the forecast. The greatest threat to
activity will be across the southern half of MN, with 20-30%
PoPs across the Metro and Central MN, 30-40% PoPs across
Southern MN.

By Saturday, another piece of weak energy will move west to east
across Southern MN and Northern IA. This will promote another shot
of low-end chances of showers/storms across the area. On Sunday,
drier air quickly filters in with DP temps dropping into the 50s by
the afternoon and evening timeframe. High temperatures both Saturday
and Sunday top out around 80 degrees.

.NEXT WEEK...

On Monday, pleasant weather conditions will continue through most of
the day with high temperatures in the low 80s. By Monday night into
Tuesday, a west to east moving frontal boundary will move across the
region. This boundary and the associated moisture that comes with it
will increase shower/storm chances across the forecast area. Strong
to severe storms and heavy rain are not expected with this activity.
Thereafter, northwest flow aloft regime will take shape with periods
of shower/storm chances through the end of the work. As of now,
nothing looks impressive just some occasional showers and storms
each day. Temperatures through the end of next work week will
continue to hover around the seasonal average for the middle of
August.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the overnight and morning
timeframe with FEW to SCT mid level clouds. Clouds will thicken
and lower through the period. Winds through the period will
be generally E/SE at 3-6 knots through the morning, becoming
7-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Rain chances increase during the late afternoon and evening
timeframe. The upper level piece of energy that will move
across the region will support shower activity, however an
isolated embedded thunderstorm or two will be possible.
Confidence in impacts to terminals associated with said activity
is focused across SWrn MN including MKT and RWF where PROB30s
for MVFR showers. Regardless, MVFR will be possible during the
evening and overnight timeframe as BKN to OVC skies lower
regards CIGs.

KMSP...Quiet and VFR conditions through the overnight and
morning timeframe. Winds will increase out of the E/SE during
the late morning and afternoon hours with gusts up to 20 knots.
Showers will be on the increase across southern MN during the
late afternoon and evening. VCSH remains in the forecast as
confidence remains low regarding directs impacts to terminals.
If MSP received SHRA, MVFR impacts will be possible with lowing
of CIGs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA and MVFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts shifting to W.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...LPR