899
FXUS63 KMPX 160536
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1236 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widely numerous showers and storms this afternoon
  and evening. Lightning and brief heavy rain are the main
  impacts.

- Temperatures continue to hover right around the seasonal
  average for the middle of August.

- Next round of showers and storms will come Monday into Tuesday
  with another cold front passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

There is an increasing chance for scattered storms this evening
as a weak cold front travels eastward out of the Dakotas.
Latest satellite imagery shows a somewhat slowly deteriorating
low level cloud deck across western MN while high-level anvil
clouds overspread from the southwest. In the areas that have
seen enough clearing, increasing dewpoints and warming
temperatures have built in a pool of moderately unstable air.
This destabilization combined with the weak forcing from the
front are expected to support the development of widely
scattered storms this evening. Most CAMs have aligned on this
solution, with some more bullish than others. Confidence is low
that everyone will see storms tonight, but the trend supports at
least a broader coverage. Given the limited heating across
eastern MN, we expect any storms that develop out west to wane
the further east they get. Nothing severe is expected given the
weak midlevel lapse rates and wind shear, though some strong
gusts could be possible as the storms first develop across
western MN.

As the front exits overnight, winds increase out of the
northwest and bring in much drier air. While it may be breezy
at times with gusts up to 20 mph, Sunday will be a very nice day
with plenty of sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s.

Active weather returns Monday into Tuesday as an upper level
shortwave deepens over the Hudson Bay. For the most part, Monday
will remain nice with mostly clear skies. Increasing southwest
winds will begin to advect moisture in though, resulting a
slightly more humid day and a chance for late afternoon storms.
Our latest PoPs have increased in the latest forecast package
to match this trend. The better forcing for storm development
comes late Monday into Tuesday as a southwestward-advancing
cold front collides with the moderately unstable air. Depending
on the timing of the front, the better chance for any severe
weather potential may end up favoring Iowa rather than across
our region. You can see this trend with the latest QPF as well,
putting the bullseye more into northern Iowa rather than
southern MN as it looked 24 hours ago.

Behind this front, temperatures cool off slightly on Wednesday,
then gradually recover through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Like mentioned in previous aviation forecast discussion, FROPA
will be the main feature through forecast period. The frontal
boundary will promote lowering cigs through the morning hours
with MVFR cigs likely, isolated instances of IFR cigs possible.
The main threat for showers/weak storms is focused now over
western WI, specifically for EAU through 08z.

Winds will continue to shift NWrly through the night behind
FROPA, at 5-10 knots. By late morning and afternoon, winds will
be NW at 8-13 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible. Cigs will
improve during the late morning and afternoon, becoming SKC by
late afternoon and evening timeframe.

KMSP...The main concern through mid morning will be cigs, MVFR
cigs are likely with isolated instances of IFR cigs.Cigs will
improve by late morning and afternoon, becoming SKC by 21z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...LPR