249
FXUS63 KMPX 121119
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
619 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms early this morning with the
  next chance for showers and thunderstorms coming on Thursday.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for critical fire weather
  across parts of western and southern Minnesota this afternoon
  and evening, avoid burning in these areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A low along the international border will move into the Great
Lakes this afternoon. Early this morning the position of the low
puts much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin into the warm
sector. This has allowed for isolated showers and thunderstorms
to occur. However, there remains significant dry air in the
lower levels of the atmosphere. First, this dry air has been
causing most of the rain to dry up before it reaches the
surface. Second, this keeps LCLs high and instability very
elevated. This means the main impact has been thunder and some
small pea sized hail. This will continue until the trailing cold
front associated with this low passes through later this
morning. Behind the frontal passage we will see gusty winds as
colder air advects in aloft and the surface heats the lower
atmosphere thanks the diurnal hearting to promote ample mixing.
The dry air present from this morning also does not change thus
the critical fire weather conditions. While the worst will be
across western and southern Minnesota it will be elevated
everywhere and today will not be a good time to burn anywhere
this afternoon and evening. The loss of daytime heating will
inhibit the mixing and bring RH values up ending the fire
weather risk late this evening.

High pressure moves in for Wednesday giving us a pretty nice day
with calmer winds, sunny conditions, and highs in the lower 70s.
This doesn`t last as our next system moves in on Thursday. Our
next round of rain will be associated with a frontal passage
associated with a low that is expected to move across the
Canadian Prairies to our north. Compared to 24 hours ago
ensembles have started to cluster in a way that makes this rain
event seem more likely to occur. Much more saturated model
sounding as well with deterministic runs have continued to
increase confidence. One other area to watch will be to
determine thunderstorm chances. Currently, instability looks
limited and does not necessarily overlap with the best moisture
and forcing. Still thunderstorms remain a chance and it is
something we will be keeping an eye on. This also looks to be
the start of a more active period continuing into the weekend.
Still a ton of spread here, but a good sign of building moisture
and warmth to get us out of the frost and fire weather pattern
that we had been stuck in to start the month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

The cold front has moved through meaning no -SHRA is expected
during this period as the main focus will be the increasing
winds behind the front. Wind gusts increase to 30-35kts after
17z with direction sticking at 300-330, with gusts diminishing
after 02z. Due to the efficient mixing, a layer of FEW to BKN
060 level cumulus is possible after 18z, especially for
MSP/RNH/EAU where saturation is a better stronger within the
forecast soundings. Winds will drop back after 02z and continue
to do so into the end of the period, with gusts disappearing
after 06-08z.

KMSP...A brief period of LLWS is possible but not included
within the TAF from 02-05z during the brief window where surface
level winds weaken but the low level jet has yet to fully exit.
Confidence was too low to include this window in the current
TAF, but may need to be added in future TAF periods.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G30kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 15-20G30kts.
SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Faribault-Kandiyohi-
     Lac Qui Parle-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-
     Renville-Sibley-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH