085
FXUS63 KMPX 161159
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
659 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms through this afternoon,
  along with well-below normal temperatures.

- Seasonably cool into this weekend with thunderstorm chances
  Friday night.

- Warmer & more active pattern next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Thunderstorms have been gradually waning in intensity & rainfall
rates overnight, diminishing the threat for any severe weather
or localized flooding. We will see scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue through the day as a surface low passes
through the area, with more widespread coverage along the low`s
track across southern Minnesota. Rainfall amounts will be
lighter today compared to yesterday with additional amounts
generally around 0.25-0.5", except across southeast Minnesota
where some enhanced thunderstorm activity this afternoon will
result in some 1-2" amounts. Temperatures will be a taste of
fall this afternoon with widespread cloud cover & periodic
precipitation keeping temperatures in the low to mid 60s this
afternoon across much of the area. Again, the exception is
across southeast Minnesota & western Wisconsin where warmest
temperatures in the 60s are expected.

Pleasant  summer days are expected Thursday & Friday as cool
canadian high pressure slides over the region. Highs will be in
the low to mid 70s along with drier dewpoints, & extended-range
smoke models do not indicate any dense concentrations of
canadian wildfire smoke. Showers and thunderstorms look likely
Friday night into Saturday morning as a weak shortwave passes
over the area, but widespread strong thunderstorms or heavy rain
looks unlikely. Another region of high pressure then keeps the
weekend dry into Monday, with seasonably cool temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

Ensemble guidance continues to depict an anomalously strong
ridge developing across the central plains & mid-missisiipi
valley midweek through next weekend. We will likely miss out on
the excessive heat & humidity under the ridge, but can still
expect a return to above-normal temperatures & more humid
conditions. Our placement on the northern periphery of the ridge
places Minnesota & Wisconsin under a classic "Ring of Fire"
pattern where a few shortwaves & organized thunderstorm
complexes will will track along the periphery of the ridge.
Models are notoriously poor at resolving these subtle features
more than a day or two out, but a few chances for severe
weather & heavy rain look likely somewhere across the Upper
Midwest to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A fall like system is spinning across the MN/IA border this
morning, with a well defined deformation band of precipitation
from Mankato up into the Twin Cities. This feature will slowly
slide east through the day, eventually allowing EAU to get in on
the rain fun with everyone else by late this morning. Cigs will
remain IFR/MVFR today, with improvements progged to start
pushing east this evening. Given the overnight timing for the
improvements, they may take longer to happen than we currently
have.

KMSP...Oh, but what if it were snow... Thankfully it`s not, but
it will be a wet morning for MSP with cigs remaining IFR. As the
rain dissipates late in the morning into the afternoon, we do
expect the cigs to start trending up into the MVFR range. Fortunately,
the thunder threat is non-zero, but not high enough to mention
any TS in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind N < 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc -TSRA after dark. Wind SSE 6-12 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR early morning. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG