337
FXUS63 KMPX 101751
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms likely (50-60% chance) across southern
  Minnesota late tonight into early tomorrow morning, some could
  be strong with wind as the main threat.

- Additional thunderstorm possible (30% chance) tomorrow night
  into Wednesday, but more scattered with less severe potential.

- Temperatures turn cooler mid week into the weekend with highs
  only in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

High pressure remains the main story today with light winds
present. There is quite a dew point spread across the region
with mid 50s in central Minnesota up to 70s down near the Iowa
border. Looking towards tonight into tomorrow morning a potent
shortwave will track from the Northern Plains into the Midwest.
It will be mainly down in this region with the higher dew points
across southern Minnesota that will see impacts from the source
of forcing. How far north rain will get will depend on the
strength of the LLJ we get and how much of a moisture push
occurs. The Twin Cities metro is near the northern end of these
chances that will be dependent on this additional push from the
LLJ to see much chance for rain or thunderstorms. It will be
this area south that has the best chance. Overall CI is expected
to occur to out west across South Dakota and will likely see
upscale growth into an MCS as it moves east into southern
Minnesota/Iowa. As is common with this convective mode, wind
and heavy rain will be the main concerns as this passes through
tonight or tomorrow morning. PW values will be up near 2 inches
based on CAM output, so heavy rain will be likely within what
storms do occur. It will be residence time of this rain that
will determine the flooding threat.

Tuesday will see more of a northwest flow pattern without much
strong forcing. Daytime heating will still be robust, as is
common in the summer, and will provide a more airmass kind of
thunderstorm environment. Shear doesn`t look great for us and
that will limit severe chances such that SPC has marginal over
us for tomorrow. In the SPC day 2 discussion they mentioned
the chance for another round of upscale growth into an MCS as
one of the reasons for the marginal risk over southern
Minnesota.

Cooler air and higher pressure look to be the story for the later
part of the work week. This will see highs in the 70s with low PoP
chances. Looking toward the weekend there is some signal within
ensemble systems for another round of rain. Scattering still
remains fairly significant, but it is Saturday, especially
early, that shows the best chances. This is also reflected with
some likely PoPs in the NBM for this period. This does not look
to be a strongly forced event, which introduces some additional
areas of uncertainty. With these rain chances the cooler
temperatures should extend into Saturday, with some warming for
the start of the next week expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Tempered back the BKN mid to high level CIGS we were carrying
from the 12z TAF as satellite shows generally lower coverage for
the start of the period. The BKN skies look to arrive after
03-04z as the front slides northwards, with a chance for
-TSRA/-SHRA for the southern sites, most likely for RWF/MKT with
 a lower chance for MSP. BKN low VFR cigs are the lowest
 expected, with a lower level warm nose keeping the bulk of
 potential activity elevated with only MVFR visibility during
 active -TSRA/-SHRA. By 12z, the chances diminish and we return
 to VFR at all sites with CIGS improving to 10kft and bcmg
 scattered. Winds will weaken overnight prevailing from 070-100
 with speeds under 5kts, VRB at times.

KMSP...Kept the prob30 for -RA intact from the 12z, but the
chance has lowered with guidance pushing southwards. If this
trend continues for the 00z, we may remove the -RA chance
entirely.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...chc MVFR/-TSRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH