638
FXUS63 KMPX 042356
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
656 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong Clipper to bring a round of rain & isolated
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- Very gusty winds will follow the Clipper system across
  western and southern MN tonight.

- Cool temperatures continue through the weekend, before
  rebounding next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Radar imagery shows that scattered showers have moved into central
MN early this afternoon as our incoming Clipper system arrives.
Across southern MN, clear skies and southerly flow have allowed
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 60s. To the north,
increasing clouds have kept temperatures below 60. The surface low
is currently located over eastern ND and will travel generally east
into WI by tonight. An incoming upper-level jet will cause the low
to deepen, which will cause rain to become more widespread around
the low as we go into this afternoon and evening. Rain looks certain
for central, south-central, and eastern MN during this afternoon
before shifting into southeastern MN and west-central WI this
evening. A few thunderstorms are also possible ahead of the cold
front that will extend south into southern MN. It is here, within
the greater surface heating, where a small risk of severe
thunderstorms exists; the main concern being damaging wind gusts.
The other concern will be the strengthening northwesterly winds
within the wake of the Clipper system. The deepening low will create
a strong pressure gradient, which will drive up wind speeds and
gusts, particularly across western and southern MN, through tonight.
Most of the CWA will see gusts of at least 25 MPH with the strongest
gusts expected in western to southern MN where values will reach 30
to possibly 40 MPH. Have bumped up wind gusts from the previous
forecast and coordinated with neighboring offices to issue a Wind
Advisory from 4-9 PM for our western MN counties.

The low will move east into the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning.
Precipitation should end from west to east relatively quickly as mid-
level drying occurs in the wake of the low. Though, some lingering
showers may exist over eastern MN and WI early Friday morning. Winds
will also be on the decrease as the pressure gradient weakens.
However, Friday still will be breezy with partly cloudy skies.
Additionally, with highs only warming into the upper 50s to lower
60s, Friday will certainly feel like Fall. Winds will lighten up as
we begin the weekend but temperatures will remain cool. Saturday`s
highs will be very similar to Friday`s with perhaps a slightly
better chance of isolated showers as an impulse within the upper-
level flow moves through the Northern Plains. The coolest night of
the forecast period looks to be Saturday night as upper 30s to lower
40s are forecast for lows. Clearing skies and light winds could also
cause lows to overachieve meaning another Frost Advisory may be
needed.

A warming trend will commence the first half of next week as the
northwesterly upper-level flow looks to be replaced by zonal flow
(by Tuesday) and then eventual ridging (by Thursday). Most guidance
favors highs returning into the 70s by mid-week. The forecast for
next week also looks pretty dry. The exception could be Monday night
where a final shortwave out of the departing northwesterly flow
could bring a chance for rain showers. Currently have 30-50% PoPs
across southern MN and west-central WI. Otherwise, things should
remain relatively mild until at least next weekend when a greater
warm-up is suggested by some long-range guidance. However, models
begin to really diverge by this time period leading to low forecast
certainty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Low pressure center with associated cold front nearly atop
central MN at initialization, with rain swath from southern-
eastern MN into western WI, all continuing to shift east. Far
southern MN showers/storms showing quite the punch, with some
wind gusts in excess of 50kts which have already moved thru RWF
and will likely come very close to that at MKT within the first
hour of this TAF set. Otherwise, rain has already exited AXN-STC
with rain expected at MSP and the WI TAF sites over the next 2-3
hours. Minimum vsby in TSRA will be down to around 1sm while
showers will be down into MVFR range. Behind the showers, the
front will be responsible for a sharp wind direction shift along
with a strong increase in speeds which will continue through the
overnight hours tonight, not really diminishing until midday
Friday. MVFR ceilings are also possible late tonight into Friday
morning post-front, followed by clearing as the day progresses
Friday. Have removed the LLWS mention as stronger surface winds
plus lighter winds aloft than previously forecast combine to
alleviate LLWS conditions.

KMSP...Rain with visibility into MVFR rain to persist for the
first couple hours of this TAF set. TS/CB not expected as best
chances are well south of MSP. As the rain moves through, winds
will make a sharp swing around the compass from SE to SW to NW
during the first 3 or so hours of this TAF, while speeds
increase to nearly 20G40kts. Post-front, ceilings will drop into
MVFR range prior to sunrise and remain there until midday while
the strong NW winds continue. Speeds will diminish and skies
will gradually clear out during the afternoon hours. Have
removed the LLWS mention as stronger surface winds plus lighter
winds aloft than previously forecast combine to alleviate LLWS
conditions.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Lac
     Qui Parle-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC