501
FXUS63 KMPX 052056
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
356 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for thunderstorms Saturday & Sunday morning across
  western Minnesota.

- More widespread rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday, though
  areas across northern MN are favored for heaviest amounts.

- More seasonable airmass arrives for the rest of the week after
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...After some morning stratus, skies have
started to clear out so have a mix of sun and clouds across the
region. Where skies were clear, temperatures were in the mid to
upper 80s, but where the clouds lingered, temperatures were in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. For the rest of the day, expect dry
conditions with light winds.

Later tonight, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across
the eastern Dakotas into western MN on the leading edge of some
H850 theta_e advection. These should weaken as they approach the
forecast area, but additional development is expected in the
afternoon and evening along the axis of instability across
western MN. These storms could produce gusty winds and hail, and
the Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) remains across western Minnesota.
These storms should weaken as they move east, so not
anticipating them to cross the I-35 corridor.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...On Monday, a potent upper level wave
will kick across the High Plains, and bring widespread
precipitation across international border closer to the surface
low. A trailing cold front south of this low will pass through
the region, and this should bring precipitation to most
locations from Monday into Tuesday morning. But given the
timing, the storms will probably be at their weakest and moving
fairly quick, so not anticipating soaking rains. A few of the
strongest storms could produce damaging winds or large hail, and
SPC maintains the marginal risk.

Rain will exit the region Tuesday morning, and any redevelopment
later in the day should be to the east across Wisconsin. On
Wednesday, breezy west winds of 25 to 30 mph will develop in the
wake of the cold front. Highs will only be in the 70s. Looking
ahead, there are small chances for storms later in the week and
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Persistent stratus has started to show signs of breaking up, so
have a one or two more hours of MVFR Cigs in the TAFs, and then
expect VFR conditions the rest of the afternoon and evening.
Overnight, forecast guidance has started back off a bit on
overnight storms, keeping them across western and southwest
Minnesota, so updated the TAFs to reflect those trends.

KMSP...
Skies beginning to lift and break up, so expect just an hour or
two of MVFR ceilings before VFR conditions settle in for the
rest of the TAF period.

Overnight and Sunday, the chance for thunderstorms has decrease,
so have a Prob30 for VFR -shra, and did not mention thunder in
the TAFs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR with Chc SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
TUE...SHRA/MVFR likely with chc TSRA, mainly in the morning.
Clearing late. Wind S 10-15kts becoming W.
WED...VFR. Wind W 15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB