713
FXUS63 KMPX 171138
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
638 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms ongoing, with elevated storms posing
  a risk for severe hail (1" or more) and damaging wind gusts
  (up to 65 mph).

- Scattered showers & storms over the next few days with an
  increased risk of flooding due to training storms. Exact
  amounts will vary based on orientation of training
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moderate to heavy rainfall has begun to push into western and
southern Minnesota as of 0730z. Training of thunderstorms is
occurring as steering flow is largely orientated parallel to
the SW to NE thunderstorm axis. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall
rates has peaked in the 1.5 to 2 inch range for parts of Redwood
county so far, with more rain still moving through. Because of
this, we have extended the Flood Watch further south to capture
an increasing risk of flooding and heavy rain with this initial
cluster of storms the morning. As these moved through SD and SW
MN, FSD has noted multiple reports of gusts up to 50mph. Given
the primed environment that these storms are heading into
(sufficient instability, steep mid- level lapse rates, and
effective shear greater than 35 kts), there will be continued
risk for severe weather. Damaging wind gusts up to 40-65 mph
will be possible through the morning, along with isolated large
hail and a tornado or two. The threat should diminish late this
morning, but light to moderate rain could continue through late
this evening in some spots.

By Tuesday morning, any lingering rain associated with the frontal
boundary should push well into the northern half of Minnesota. A
trailing cold front will then push through the region,
producing a long and narrow band of showers/storms during the
afternoon/evening. Low-level moisture transport via a 40-50kt LLJ
should provide PWAT values of 2"+ as far north as Lake Superior.
This in addition to strong forcing and an unstable airmass (MUCAPE
values in excess of 2500 J/kg) along the front will result in
another threat for some strong to severe storms within the band. The
main threats along this line will be damaging wind gusts and pockets
of large hail within the strongest cells. A smaller, but existent
tornado risk looks to stretch from northern Minnesota/Wisconsin down
to the southern Twin Cities metro where the latest forecast
soundings/hodographs highlight more favorable low-level shear. Heavy
rainfall and flooding will continue to be a concern with a broad
area of 1"+ possible, depending on how slow the front progresses.
Storms should begin to weaken and taper off as they head further
east into Wisconsin around sunset. Also of note, temperatures could
approach the 90 degree mark with dew points in the low 70s resulting
in heat indices near 95 degrees.

Heading into Wednesday, the passing front will stall southeast of
the area, stretching from SE Neb up towards SE WI. Remnant
forcing near the front is expected to produce some additional
showers/storms, especially along the I-90 corridor. This front
will push northward, resulting in continuous opportunities for
additional rainfall across the region through Saturday. An
additional 2 to 5 inches is possible from Wed-Sat, with the
heaviest totals coming on Friday into Saturday where QPF
maximum of 2.5" is forecasted over central Minnesota. There is
still uncertainty is the exact severity and extent of the storms
/ heavy rain / flooding, but it will certainly be an active
period to continue following.

A brief period of relief from rain looks probable sometime early
next week, before the pattern becomes unsettled again mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The strongest line of storms has pushed into western Wisconsin,
where TS could still impact RNH and EAU for a few hours this
morning. Otherwise, mainly light to moderate rain will impact
terminals through much of the day. Cigs will be primarily
MVFR/VFR, but could push down into IFR at times during the day.
Winds will continue to shift more southerly as the frontal
boundary moves north this afternoon. They will generally persist
at 5-10 kts, but will increase in speed and gustiness
overnight. A brief break in rain/clouds will occur overnight
into tomorrow morning before another round of showers/storms
develop tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Primarily light rain/showers will impact the terminal
through late this evening. Recent models suggest non-stop light
rain until around 04/05z, but it could become more of an on and
off rain as early as this afternoon. Winds will be 10-15 kts
today, but could be gusting up to 25-30 kts from the south by
tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE PM...VFR/MVFR, TSRA/SHRA likely, chc IFR. Wind S15-20G30-35kts.
WED...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind N 5-10kts.
THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for Benton-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd.
     Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-
     Hennepin-McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-Renville-Scott-Sibley-
     Washington-Wright.
     Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Blue Earth-Brown-
     Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-
     Redwood-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for Barron-Polk.
     Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for St. Croix.
     Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Pierce.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED