177
FXUS63 KMPX 141837
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
137 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers expected this evening into tomorrow morning.
  Most areas will not see much rain.

- Chance for storms tomorrow evening along a weak cold front.

- Temperatures this weekend and into next will hover right
  around the seasonal average for the middle of August.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Any sort of interesting weather remains south this afternoon,
tied to the surface boundary across Iowa, Illinois, and
Indiana. We will start to see this pattern finally break down
as a midlevel wave develops and spreads east from the Canadian
Rockies tonight. Spotty showers are expected tonight and
Saturday as low level moisture increases in response to the
developing low pressure tied to the midlevel wave. Very little
lightning is expected tonight given the lack of instability,
though increasing dewpoints tomorrow ahead of the cold front
should be enough to build in a thousand or so joules of MUCAPE.
Whether or not we`ll see any storms actually develop is
uncertain, with only a few CAMs developing storms at all along
the front, and even less having them develop across Minnesota.
The bullish solution would be something like the 14.12Z run of
the RRFS. During this whole window (Friday afternoon - Saturday
evening), we`ve kept PoPs capped at around 30 to 40% at any
given time. In reality, the chance of precipitation is pretty
high throughout the entire timeframe, but the confidence in the
exact timing for any exact point is very low.

Heading into Sunday, the front will have moved through and winds
will increase out of the northwest. Slightly cooler, and much
drier air will advect in. This will also help clear out any
lingering wildfire smoke and cloud cover, making for the best
day of the weekend.

For next week, Monday starts out similar to Sunday, with highs
in the low 80s and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. We will start
to see a low level response to a deepening low pressure across
Canada, increasing our winds out of the southwest. By Tuesday,
dewpoints will increase well into the 60s and low 70s again,
setting the stage for our next chance for notable precip as a
strong cold front looks to sweep down from Canada. The latest
NBM and WPC QPF amounts peak around 1-2" across southern MN.
This is probably the area that needs it the least given the
current drought outlook, but it is good to see rain shifting
north from the areas that have been slammed the past few days.
Should our moisture flow get cutoff by any storms to our south,
we may see this number trend down. But as of now, this is our
best chance for heavy rain. CSU`s MLP severe probability
forecasts do also highlight low end chances for organized
convection both Monday and Tuesday.

Surface high pressure should move in across the area again
behind the fropa, resulting in a couple of quieter days to end
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Mid to upper-level cigs will begin to fill in closer to the surface
as we proceed through the afternoon hours. Breezy ESE 18-20kt wind
gusts will continue until this evening. A stationary boundary
that remains draped over IA today combined with a weak mid-
level disturbance passing through the northern plains, should
produce enough forcing to produce isolated to scattered showers
for most MN sites later this afternoon. Thus have maintained
prob30 mentions in the TAF. Later this evening into tonight, the
threat for light rain showers increases in coverage from SW to
NE. Rainfall rates should be light enough to keep categories in
MVFR. But tomorrow morning, confidence is increasing in the
potential for early AM IFR fog/mist to develop especially for
STC and MKT. IFR/MVFR cigs will be slow to return to VFR by the
end of the period.

KMSP...Only concern this afternoon will be gradually falling cigs as
the vertical column becomes saturated. HiRes guidance looks to throw
a potential out for -SHRA mainly between 00-04z hence the current
prob30. However although there is still some uncertainty of exact
location of rain showers late tonight, activity should be close
enough to the field to warrant prevailing -SHRA from 08-12
timeframe. Once the rain passes, cigs will be slow to recover
for the first half of the day and return to VFR by early
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.
MON...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 5-10kts.&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Dunleavy