418
FXUS63 KMPX 040955
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
455 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thursday afternoon/evening...Conditional threat of storms,
  favored for western Minnesota again. Heavy rain, large hail,
  and strong winds are primary hazards.

- Friday...Storms may linger across the region, though
  confidence on overall coverage is low and depends on how
  Thursday plays out.

- We stay dry on Saturday, but an active and very warm pattern
  is favored for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

It rained! Quite a bit too across western Minnesota... radar
estimates suggest upwards of 2 to 3" could have fallen across
western Yellow Medicine County. A healthy 0.5 to 1.5" fell
across the majority of western Minnesota as very efficient rain
showers developed behind our main line of storms. As the LLJ
weakens this morning, we anticipate the downward trend in
showers and storms to persist. CAMs continue to show it quickly
dissipating as it outruns the instability axis, though
confidence is low on how fast it will dissipate as we are
continuing to see new towers bubbling along the outflow as of
3AM. As these storms fizzle out, some additional showers could
develop shortly after sunrise, otherwise we expect to have a
lull in the rain until later this afternoon.

Today`s setup for storms remains Marginal for severe weather,
and conditional for storm coverage depending on how extensive
our cloud clearing is during the first half of the day. In other
words, this is a scenario where you don`t need to cancel any
plans for the day, but it is a good idea to stay weather aware
and have a plan in place if any storms develop. The primary
hazards will be large hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall
rates. We already saw the atmosphere play its hand with last
night`s efficient rain production, and PWATs will only be
increasing (mean values around 1") as low level moisture surges
north/east. Not unrelated, we will actually be able to build
worthwhile instability with widespread Tds in the low to mid
60s. The most likely area to see enough clearing this morning
will be across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota, which
is what we see across hi-res guidance. Any strong storms that
develop will be tied to the boundary that stalls over southern
Minnesota, moving east along the shear vector. That activity
will peak during the late afternoon and evening, but may linger
into the night once again impacting the environment for storms
Friday.

Latest trends favor more clearing on Friday, allowing for
broader development of storms in the afternoon. The overall
environment should be the best of the 3 days for severe storms,
with 35-45kts bulk shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. The thing to
watch though is the location of the boundary by Friday
afternoon, which favors Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. The new
SPC day2 convective outlook has cut off much of the northwest
portion of the Marginal Risk, supporting this idea.

Saturday will offer a break from the active weather as surface
high pressure extends down into the Upper Midwest from Canada.

It may be a short break though, as long range deterministic and
ensemble guidance favors a southwest flow pattern that would
support an extended period of heat and frequent rain chances.
The latest NBM pinpoints mid to late next week with widespread
low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. This will depend on how
persistent the upper level ridging holds over the central
CONUS, but bears watching as it would be our first real taste of
summer heat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Swath of rain with embedded thunderstorms continues to weaken
in intensity and weaken in size, along with diminishing coverage
of thunderstorms. At initialization, precip is mainly around
MKT but trying to get into MSP but the overall swath looks to
dissipate by about 14z with only mid-level cloud cover left
over. From late morning onward, the forecast becomes quite
tricky in trying to pin down location/timing of any additional
SHRA/TSRA for the remainder of this TAF period. Generally,
additional development looks to occur late this afternoon into
this evening, but the CAMs continue to offer little consistency
or agreement so have kept any precip mention to a PROB30 and
have also held off the re-introduction of CB/TS due to low
confidence. Cannot rule it out so will monitor radar trends for
later TAFs. Winds will run from the S to SW with speeds around
10kts or less.

KMSP...Only a trace to a couple hundredths of an inch occurred
this morning at MSP as the swath of precipitation from western
MN dissipated fairly quickly before producing any appreciable
rainfall for the Twin Cities metro. There are additional low
chances for precipitation this afternoon into tonight, and have
highlighted the relative best chance as the 22z-04z window this
afternoon-evening. This timing could easily change to earlier or
later depending on radar trends. Have also held off the CB/TS
mention due to rather low confidence on timing/placement,
keeping in place the idea of being conservative due to the poor
model agreement.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts becoming E.
SUN...Mainly VFR. Slight chance TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE 10-15
kts.
MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR-IFR possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC