971
FXUS63 KMPX 132357
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
657 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued rain chances, but more scattered the rest of the day
  today. Strong to severe storms unlikely.

- The active period of weather continues with rain chances at
  least part of each day over the next week.

- Strong to severe storms possible across parts of western
  Minnesota this weekend and much of the southern half of
  Minnesota on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Rest of Today... This afternoon the main rain shield has moved
off to the east with more isolated to scattered showers popping
up across the region. With the frontal boundary still hanging
out near the Iowa/Minnesota border we will continue to be in the
same broader synoptic environment as yesterday. This will allow
for additional showers to continue to develop for the rest of
the day. The biggest change is in the convective environment as
instability is much lower than what we had with the severe
storms yesterday. This lack of instability could even limit the
occurrence of thunderstorms generally as there is little
instability present. Based on the path of the moisture
transport, the CAMs via the HREF continue to favor central
Minnesota for the main area of QPF again.

This Weekend... The frontal position does not change much over
the weekend. So a fairly status quo weekend weatherwise with
the best chances for additional rain dependent on upper level
forcing. It continues to look like a small wave with some
vorticity will be making its way into the Upper Midwest late
Saturday into Sunday. This will be the best chance for rain
owing to the stronger synoptic support. Despite this, the
overall rain risk doesn`t dissipate and there are chances for
more isolated showers throughout much of the weekend. This
period (late Saturday into Sunday) is just the best chance for
the more widespread rainfall. The rain chances also increase as
precipitable water increases as well. NAEFS have PW values above
the 90th and even at time around the 99th percentile for PW
from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. So the forcing plus
moisture is a good ingredient for additional rainfall. On a
severe front the environment over Minnesota is not great, but it
is much better over the Dakotas. This could allow some strong
to severe convection to move in from the Dakotas into western
Minnesota. This is especially true if an MCS can form, which
some models do hint at.

Next Week... An active and unsettled pattern continues into
early next week. Global guidance depicts a 594dm ridge centered over
the desert southwest, with the associated active jet spanning from
California northeast into the Dakotas. This places the Upper
Midwest in the zone favored for continued rounds of convective
activity early in the work week. It appears likely that convection
will be ongoing in some capacity Monday morning in association with
the nocturnal low-level jet. Temperatures are forecast to climb into
the lower to mid 80s following the morning activity, which makes
Monday the warmest day of the forecast period. The approach of a
swift 500mb shortwave around the ridge will bring the next chance
for showers and thunderstorms during the second half of Monday. The
combination of synoptic forcing and an expected moisture rich
environment raises concerns for potential severe weather, which is
reflected by a Day 4 15% zone highlighted by SPC across southern
Minnesota. We`re still putting some of the pieces together, however
it looks possible that an MCS will develop and traverse along the
instability gradient (from NW to SE) through the region Monday
evening. The question will be just how fast the storm motion is and
whether or not training of storms occurs heading into the night.
We`ll look for another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon, prior to the passage of a cold front mid-week. Along with
the potential for severe thunderstorms, we`ll have to monitor which
corridors observe multiple rounds of thunderstorms/training of
storms as hydro concerns will be on the rise. WPC`s latest Day 1-7
QPF forecast shows the potential for ~2" of rainfall areawide, with
locally higher amounts tied to convection (perhaps 3-4"+). As
previously discussed, areal and flash flooding are possible through
mid-week given the surplus of potential rainfall. A brief lull in
the activity arrives Wednesday, however the resurgence of an active
zonal jet across the northern CONUS will bring more unsettled
weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

An area of showers extends from RCX to LJF. These showers will
track east northeast through most of the night. A few scattered
TS across southern MN will slowly diminish. Otherwise MVFR/IFR
across central MN and WI will trend a bit lower through the
night. VFR across southern MN will also deteriorate to IFR
overnight. Conditions will be slow to improve Saturday, and may
remain MVFR or IFR through the period.

KMSP...Showers are likely to remain north for the rest of the
night, but a brief shower remains possible for the next 3-4
hours. IFR cigs will become likely after midnight, possibly
lingering into late Saturday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR late w/TSRA. Wind S at 10 kts.
MON...VFR/MVFR -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR/MVFR -TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC/Strus
AVIATION...Borghoff